Looking Into 2024-25 OKC Thunder's Scoring Profile, Part Two: Mid-Range Scoring

The Thunder have suffered an effective field-goal percentage drop-off from last season despite attempting fewer mid-range shots.

Nov 13, 2024; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) shoots as New Orleans Pelicans center Yves Missi (21) defends during the second quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Part One in this series highlights the Oklahoma City Thunder's four potent rim scoring threats: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. They contribute quality offense on consistent volume near the basket through dribble penetration, touch and verticality.

The mid-range jumper is the least efficient shot type in basketball, justified by a league-median 0.81 points per shot. All current teams that have generated top-quartile offensive ratings and mid-range percentages — the New York Knicks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks — have also recorded high rim and/or 3-point percentages.

This season, Oklahoma City has tallied the 14th-highest mid-range shot distribution (24.2%) and 16th-highest mid-range percentage (40.2%). The team is shooting above 47% on shots from 10 to 14 feet and 15 to 19 feet, which alone would place them fourth in mid-range efficiency, but they have shot a poor 30.2% on 9.3 attempts per game from five to nine feet.

Over a third of the Thunder's 2-point attempts are open or wide open, an optimal rate considering all five opposing defenders are usually standing inside the arc.

Closest Defender	Team 2FGA Per Game	Team 2FG%
0-2 Feet (Very Tight)	5.3 (25th in NBA)	46.4% (16th in NBA)
2-4 Feet (Tight)	29.3 (19th in NBA)	54.2% (13th in NBA)
4-6 Feet (Open)	14.2 (3rd in NBA)	55.1% (15th in NBA)
6+ Feet (Wide Open)	4.1 (1st in NBA)	61.5% (21st in NBA)

Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams possess the most 2-point volume on the team regardless of shot location or their closest defender's distance. When it comes to mid-range output, Gilgeous-Alexander exacerbates the Thunder's overall efficiency — his 36.2% shooting on 47 attempts from five to nine feet is about 15% lower than his corresponding percentage last season, but his 49.3% shooting from 10 to 19 feet would compare favorably to almost every other team in the league. Less than 10% of Gilgeous-Alexander's mid-range makes this season have been assisted.

Williams does not create his own shots quite to the same degree, receiving assists on about a third of his mid-range offense, although he is shooting 48.4% on 91 total attempts from five to 19 feet. The third-year wing, classified lately as a center, has increased his 2-point percentage over the last 10 games after a lackluster start to the season for his standards. This has included mid-range makes spread around the court, a surprising takeaway because he is particularly effective at driving left.

All other Thunder players do not have enough mid-range volume to establish firm conclusions, though there are some current concerns. Aaron Wiggins, who has recorded 67.6% shooting at the rim and an elite 42.6% on 3-point attempts, is shooting 3-for-15 between five and nine feet and 2-for-8 between 10 and 19 feet. Holmgren made five of his 11 shots between 10 and 14 feet before fracturing his right hip — but converted just three of 14 attempts between five and nine feet.

Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams remain mid-range gunners in the Thunder offense, while the team's role players have shifted noticeably toward other shot types. This is an encouraging trend regardless of any efficiency results through 16 games.

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