OKC Thunder: What is Chet Holmgren’s Ceiling in Year Two?

Could the Thunder’s big man take the All-Star leap?

May 18, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren (7) dunks past Dallas Mavericks forward Derrick Jones Jr. (55) and Dallas Mavericks center Dereck Lively II (2) during the second half in game six of the second round of the 2024 NBA playoffs at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Oklahoma City made the improbable leap from a play-in team to top of the Western Conference a season ago. The Thunder’s regular season was historic considering the team’s youth, and they finally got the playoff experience they desperately needed.

In addition to a big season of growth, the team nailed the offseason period too. The Thunder added two of the best role players in the NBA in Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso. Both players will play a massive role for the Thunder next season and add to the hype machine surrounding the team. Currently, Oklahoma City is the favorite to win the Western Conference and sit in the top three of the NBA’s championship odds.

Part of the reason why the Thunder took a massive leap last season was the addition of Chet Holmgren to the lineup. Holmgren was one of the most impressive rookies of the last decade and changed the course of the Thunder’s future. Oklahoma City was always going to be good with the current core, but Holmgren exceeding the hype has pushed the Thunder’s ceiling to a different level. He makes this team a contender.

He had a terrific rookie season, anchoring the Thunder on defense and adding so much on the offensive end too. Considering everything we saw in year one, what is Holmgren’s ceiling in year two? It feels like an All-Star nod wouldn’t be too far out of the question.

In his first season with the Thunder, coming off of a year long injury, Holmgren averaged 16.5 points, 7.9 rebounds and 2.4 assists while shooting 53% from the floor and 37% from 3-point range. His outside jumper was extremely reliable and hovered around 45% throughout the majority of the season, but he lost his legs a bit towards the end. His impact never wavered though. He averaged 2.3 blocks and established himself as one of the best rim protectors in the league.

Mark Daigneault mentioned Holmgren many times in his exit interview and gave him a ton of praise. He said Holmgren would only improve — and an improvement on his production from a season ago would be an All-Star level player. The Thunder will try and tap into his creation more and use his potential playmaking skills.

Realistically, Holmgren’s ceiling next year includes a jump in points and assists per game. With the addition of Hartenstein, his rebounds probably won’t take a huge leap, but staying at around eight boards a game seems reasonable. Holmgren’s ceiling next season could look something like 21-24 points and four assists. His defense will still remain top tier, and he’ll have his legs under him for a full season.

An All-Star appearance for Holmgren next season is in the realm of possibility.

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