Predicting Oklahoma City's Ceiling Next Season

Oklahoma City is one of the trickiest NBA teams to project next season.

Everyone can agree that Oklahoma City has one of the brightest futures in the NBA. The projection for the upcoming season, however, seems to be a lot less certain.

Experts, and Vegas, think OKC is going to be one of the worst teams in the NBA, plain and simple. The Thunder’s over-under win total was set at 25.5, which might seem reasonable. But, last year’s squad won 24 games. Not only did Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey miss significant playing time, but Oklahoma City also added the No. 2 pick in the NBA draft.

The NBA got better collectively across the board, and there’s the most parity we’ve seen around the league in years. But even still, assuming SGA and Giddey make it the length of the season, you’d have to expect the added star power will equal more than one extra win for the Thunder.

The Thunder were less than competitive at times last season, but the biggest glaring hole was in the front court. Sam Presti addressed those needs in the draft, too, with Holmgren and Jaylin Williams out of Arkansas. Now, with a consistent rotation, the Thunder could be a more complete team.

What’s tricky about predicting Oklahoma City’s upcoming season, is that it’s unclear which direction the Thunder are committed to going. If Gilgeous-Alexander and Giddey play a full season alongside the No. 2 pick, of course OKC is going to have more on-court success next season. But it also wouldn’t be shocking if the Thunder shifted to development in hopes of reaching for the top pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, Victor Wembenyama.

Presti has explained his thought process on multiple occasions, saying he plans to let the Thunder play it out and see what they have at the beginning of the season. If things go awry, it seems like the brass will do whatever is best for the team's long-term future.

Ultimately, the fan base seems to be split on what Oklahoma City should do. Does the Thunder already have enough talent to develop on the roster to compete for a championship down the line? That’s the million dollar question.

Whichever direction Presti chooses to go, it’s hard for me to envision Oklahoma City not improving next year. It’s extremely unlikely for the Thunder to grow up in a season and make a run at the playoffs, but hovering around the play-in conversation at the end of the season doesn’t seem out of the question.

Because so many teams are gunning for the playoffs, it’s a great season for the Thunder to develop chemistry and court time between the young stars. Realistically, the Oklahoma City’s ceiling could be right around 35-to-40 games.

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