Pushing Boundaries: Could Chet Holmgren Emerge as Best Rookie Shot Blocker of the Decade?
When evaluating Oklahoma City Thunder 7-footer Chet Holmgren's game, what stands out most is his ability to protect the paint. Not only does he have the ability to block the shot of the player he is defending, but he's fantastic in transition with chase down blocks as well as rotating in help defense to erase shots. He has a unique blend of size, length, patience and IQ that helps him thrive on that end of the floor as a shot blocker.
In his lone season at Gonzaga, Holmgren produced 3.7 blocks per contest. More recently at NBA Summer League, he averaged 3.5 per game.
While it's unrealistic to expect him to continue that rate at the next level, he has the tools to really do something special. In fact, he has a clear path to being one of the better rookie shot blockers in history.
Over the past decade, no rookie has blocked more than 2.5 shots per game.
- 2022-23: Walker Kessler (2.3)
- 2021-22: Evan Mobley (1.7)
- 2020-21: Isaiah Stewart (1.3)
- 2019-20: Daniel Gafford (1.3)
- 2018-19: Mitchell Robinson (2.4)
- 2017-18: Jarrett Allen (1.2)
- 2016-17: Joel Embiid (2.5)
- 2015-16: Kristaps Porzingis (1.9)
- 2014-15: Nerlens Noel (1.9)
- 2013-14: Rudy Gobert (0.9)
Looking further back, no rookie has blocked more than 2.5 shots per game since Tim Duncan in the 1997-98 season. This was before Holmgren was even born. As such, if the Thunder big can even eclipse the 2.6 blocks per contest mark, he will be the best rookie shot blocker of his lifetime.
Again, this is an extremely tough task, but there's no question Holmgren has the tools to do it. Especially on a Thunder defense that was already good last season, he should be able to enhance the team's production on that end from day one as a rookie.
It's also worth noting fellow rookie Victor Wembanyama also has what it takes to accomplish this as well, so Holmgren may be chasing recent history alongside another first-year player concurrently.
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