Re-Evaluating Oklahoma City's Win Total After Chet Holmgren's Injury

The Thunder's win total will likely take another hit, but don't count Oklahoma City out just yet.

Oklahoma City received crushing news this week regarding the status of No. 2 overall pick Chet Holmgren. Now that the big man has been ruled out for the season’s entirety, it’s time to think about what the new-look squad will look like minus the Holmgren projections.

Even without Holmgren, Oklahoma City’s brutally low win totals seem perplexing. Not all sites have been updated since the injury, but the Thunder’s totals are almost always set somewhere in the low 20’s. There have been plenty of projections that have Oklahoma City’s 2022-23 record worse than a season ago.

It’s hard to see the current roster winning less games than season ago. The front court will struggle mightily once again, especially since Holmgren was slotted in as a starter, but there’s more talent than people think. Oklahoma City won 24 games a season ago, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey and Lu Dort all missing significant time with injury.

Now, in just a few short months, the Thunder will have all three key players healthy and gearing up for the season, plus reinforcement additions. Holmgren was obviously the most intriguing rookie on the roster, but it’s easy to forget that Oklahoma City added two additional lottery picks. Both Jalen Williams and Ousmane Dieng will have opportunities to play right away, but Williams looks to be an immediate impact player. Adding a contributor with a high ceiling is a recipe for success to an already young core.

Both Darius Bazley and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl will have extended responsibilities after each of their roles were relatively uncertain throughout the offseason. Before the injury, the two were likely fighting for court time, but now, both players will be counted on for production. Arkansas big man Jaylin Williams might see the court sooner than expected, too.

With Gilgeous-Alexander and Giddey back in the fold, the Thunder should still have plenty to look forward to. SGA could easily take that All-Star step, expanding Oklahoma City’s ceiling higher. Just by offseason progression and improvement, the Thunder’s core should look a lot better.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the bottom of Oklahoma City’s bench could look a lot different this season. There’s not an abounding amount of G League talent and two-way contracts, and more “prove it” players and rookies. Talented second-year guys like Aaron Wiggins and Tre Mann are candidates for heavy playing time that have shown serious promise.

Holmgren’s injury is brutal for the Thunder’s entertainment factor and the rookie’s development. Outside of that, though, Oklahoma City’s immediate win impact shouldn’t take too much of a hit.

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