Staff Roundtable: Thunder Play-In Predictions Against Pelicans

Inside The Thunder staff discusses the upcoming Oklahoma City Thunder game against the Pelicans in New Orleans.

The New Orleans Pelicans will host the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday night in a game of consequence. Oklahoma City secured the No. 10 seed in the Western Conference and will now have to win two games on the road to make the playoffs.

There's an infinite number of ways this game could go, but the reality is that it should be a competitive one just like the matchups between these teams were for most of the 2022-23 campaign.

Ahead of Wednesday, the team answered three questions leading up to the big game.

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Who wins this matchup and what is the difference when it's all said and done?

Derek:

I’m going to lean Pelicans, but it wouldn’t surprise me if OKC came out with a great gameplan. The Thunder at their peak looked near unbeatable, but I’m not going to bank on their shooting showing up in a big way Wednesday.

Nick:

Simply due to the fact that the Pelicans will be at home, they have a significant advantage. Oklahoma City has struggled on the road this season, so this will be a tough test.

Kade: 

This is tough. It could really go either way, as a win-or-go-home game does. I think the Pelicans length and ability to heat up offensively will be tough for the Thunder to overcome, leading to a Pelicans win

Randall:

New Orleans edges OKC in a close game. Ultimately, the Pelicans’ postseason experience could prove to be the difference in a contest between two teams who played multiple very tightly contested games this season.

Dustin:

All the evidence points to the Pelicans holding a big advantage over the Thunder in the form of experience, interior size and perimeter defense. While this game will test their hunger, I think Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s mid-range scoring and Josh Giddey’s vision and passing will prove just enough to dissect New Orleans’ defense.

Ross:

I think the Pelicans win in an exciting, high scoring game. New Orleans has too much perimeter shooting for the Thunder to account for, and giving up open threes against a team with CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram and Trey Murphy is a death sentence. If it’s an off night from downtown, though, Oklahoma City has more than a fighting chance.

Chris:

I think the Thunder squeak out a win over the Pelicans to become the first 10-seed to win a play-in game due to the absence of Zion Williamson and the presence of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Who is the biggest X-factor for the Thunder?

Derek:

I’ll say Jalen Williams is going to be the X-factor, but not for his dynamo offense we saw down the stretch. In order for Oklahoma City to comfortably match up with NOLA, he’s going to have to take on a tough assignment defensively, be it Ingram, Murphy or even Valanciunas, at times.

Nick:

It feels like Isaiah Joe could be the piece that gets the Thunder over the hump in this one. He's capable of scoring in bunches, whether it's pulling away with a lead or chipping away at a deficit.

Kade:

Lu Dort. Assuming he gets the Brandon Ingram matchup, he’s going to have to show out. Also, he’s going to have to provide some offense for the Thunder to open things up.

Randall:

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be the X-Factor for the Thunder. SGA’s ability to take over a game could help keep Oklahoma City in contention. The All-Star guard topped 40 points agains New Orleans earlier this season. Additionally, OKC will need a solid game from Lu Dort on both ends of the floor. 

Dustin:

Obviously, it has to be Luguentz Dort’s ability to put the ball through the hoop, right? Yes his defense can be valuable, but, over his last 14 games he’s shooting just 34.9%… from the field. If Dort can get his act together on the offensive side of the ball, it could mean the difference between a double-digit victory or a double-digit loss to the Pelicans.

Ross:

Aaron Wiggins has to be the Thunder’s X-Factor here. His minutes have been on the rise and his production has been through the roof. If Lu Dort can’t find a groove offensively, Wiggins’ two-way presence will be invaluable.

Chris:

The biggest X-factor for OKC will be Josh Giddey. While he doesn’t score the most points on the team, the ability to do everything else is what puts him over the top. His passing and rebounding ability is slept on in terms of the overall team.

What's your hottest take about this matchup?

Derek:

My hot take is that we’re going to see less Aaron Wiggins minutes than most think. Wiggins has been awesome, of late, but as one of OKC’s smaller players, it’s going to be hard to slot him into the contest with New Orleans’ length.

Nick:

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander notches a career-high in scoring in this game, nearly eclipsing the 50-point mark.

Kade:

Trey Murphy is going to be a Thunder killer and come out with a huge game, which helps the Pelicans out-score the Thunder

Randall:

My hottest take about this matchup is that Jaylin Williams is a key component for the Thunder. Williams’ ability to operate from multiple spots on the floor offensively could play some of the Pelicans’ big men off the court. However, if Williams does not play well, New Orleans could easily use its size to dominate the matchup.

Dustin:

Jaylin Williams, from Arkansas, actually matches up well with Jonas Valanciunas despite what resumes might suggest. At nearly 31 years old, he isn’t the quickest center, so Williams should have little issue staying in front of the seven-footer and is plenty strong and smart enough to find ways to bother him inside. Williams may even be able to exploit the heavy-footed Valanciunas via perimeter shooting where he’s knocked down 40.7% of his 3-pointers this season.

Ross:

My hottest take about the matchup against the Pelicans is Isaiah Joe filling in as Oklahoma City’s No. 2 scoring leader on the offensive end. With the influx of double teams headed SGA’s way, the floor could be wide open for a sharpshooter like Joe. With a little confidence, Joe will let it fly from anywhere on the floor, and the Thunder will need production off the bench desperately on Wednesday.

Chris:

My hot take is that the winner of this game will win the play-in series. These two teams have the ability to get hot and go on runs of wins. The starting lineups of both teams are loaded with deep talent and can compete in playoff series. 

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