Stiles Points: Examining Jalen Williams' Offense In Year Three

The Oklahoma City Thunder are in the midst of an impressive season but third year wing Jalen Williams has been placed under a microscope. What is going on with the OKC Thunder rising star on the offensive end?

Dec 31, 2024; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder forward Jalen Williams (8) reacts after a play against the Minnesota Timberwolves during the second half at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

In the midst of a historic 30-5 start to the season, the Oklahoma City Thunder still need more from Jalen Williams on the offensive end. The third-year rising star has been put under a microscope, which in and of itself is a feather in his cap for what the ceiling appears to be. No one over-analyzes a clear role player's production - but with a potential go-to scoring option in the NBA? This discourse flows.

The clamoring for more production from Williams only grows with his 3-for-10 outing against the Celtics in a come-from-behind Thunder win. The bright spot of year three? The Santa Clara product is playing at an All-defensive level on that side of the floor, not letting whatever offensive struggles he faces seep into that end.

On the surface, Williams is actually having a career year seeing highs in points, rebounds, assists, shot attempts, 3-point attempts, free throws and stocks per game. However, the efficiency has taken a massive hit across the board.

On the heels of a five-game stretch with just one outing that mustered 20 points and just two efficient nights in the middle of the Thunder's 15-game winning streak, the conversation around Williams is at a fever pitch.

(Last five games for Jalen Williams: 15.2 points, 6.0 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 2.6 stocks on 46/21/53 shooting splits)

The truth is often in the middle. Is the third-year swingman having a season worth panicking over and cause to abandon the rising star tag? Absolutely not. Does Oklahoma City need more from him? Eventually, yes.

It is important to keep in mind, Williams is just 23-years-old, with Chet Holmgren sidelined and more data points than ever on the Santa Clara product, of course, NBA defenses can adjust.

The most encouraging signs for the 6-foot-6 swingman is how easily simple fixes that he has shown before - and getting back to basics - gives this discourse a 180.

For starters, playing alongside Holmgren when that day comes will be a welcomed sign. While Williams has found some success with Hartenstein, a seven-footer that lays screens to help out handlers, it is different with his fellow rising star.

After Holmgren screens for Williams, you can find the Gonzaga product on the 3-point line. That forces a defender to follow and unclog the land/mid-range or opens up a simple read-and-react situation for Williams to fire the ball to the big fellow to knock down a few triples, forcing the defense to react. With Hartenstein, those screens lead to the former Knick floating around the elbow and mid-paint two spots where Williams previously buttered his bread as a scorer.

However, there is no need to wait around for the return of the Thunder's second-best player. Williams can get the car back on the road offensively now - with little reason to doubt a breakthrough is coming.

Williams is an electric cutter, ranking in the 84th percentile and producing 1.500 points per possession in such scenarios. Playing off of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Ajay Mitchell - when healthy - the Thunder could design more sets and actions to generate cutting chances for the third-year wing who has only attempted 32 shots as a cutter this year (0.8 per game). This is not necessarily a requirement as Williams attempted that same mark a year ago and his career-best output is 0.9 attempts per game on cuts but it certainly could get him going.

However, two big drop-offs must be corrected: As a catch-and-shoot shooter he is only turning in a field goal percentage of 38.5% down from 41% a year ago - some of that comes with the uptick in 3-point volume but another change is shooting variants that if/when it corrects itself changes how his offensive output is viewed.

The more glaring issue is as a pick-and-roll ball handler. Williams is turning in just 0.845 points per possession on 43% shooting down from 0.989 points per possession on 51% shooting. Part of that is tethered to the Hartenstein-Holmgren difference laid out earlier, but another aspect comes at the rim.

After shooting 70% at the rim in his first two seasons, Williams is down to 65% at the cup, dropping him from the 80th percentile to the 36th percentile in the NBA.

Part of the troubles at the rim is due to the shot diet. This season, the Santa Clara product is shooting 1.3 runners and 4.7 layups per game with just 1.3 dunks a night. Compare that to his sophomore outbreak of 0.9 runners, 4.8 layups and 1.0 dunks per game. Flipping some of those floaters into dunks or layups would unlock more of a scoring punch for Williams.

In comparison, Williams is taking just 31% of his shot attempts at the rim compared to 48% and 36% of his attempts coming at the cup in his first and second years. his mid-range shot diet is down as well.

The end result? If/When the 6-foot-6 220-pounder gets to the rim with more aggression and sees his 3-point percentage swing back favorably, his "offensive slump" will be a distant memory.

Progression isn't linear, as Mark Daigneault loves to say and Williams' history is worth betting on an offensive bounceback. Especially, coupled with his truly elite defense this season.

Stiles Points

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander reflected on his OKC Thunder tenure following the team's 15th straight win on Sunday.
• How the OKC Thunder cooled off Jaylen Brown in the second half against the Boston Celtics.
• The Oklahoma City Thunder proved to be a second-half team this week, which is not a bad thing.
• Oklahoma City staked its claim to the top spot in the NBA.

Song of the Day: Edge of Reality by Elvis

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