Stiles Points: OKC Thunder Loss to Bucks Worthy of Overreactions?

The Oklahoma City Thunder dropped the NBA Cup Championship game to the Milwaukee Bucks, 97-81. Is this high stakes game worth overreacting to? Are there big picture concerns for the OKC Thunder?

Dec 17, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) dribbles against Milwaukee Bucks guard Gary Trent Jr. (5) during the 1st quarter of the Emirates NBA Cup championship game at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-Imagn Images / Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

Fan is short for fanatic. So it is tough to ask NBA and OKC Thunder fans a lot to not overreact and overanalyze the only show in town, in Tuesday night's 97-81 loss. Especially when the game looked extremely similar to the Thunder's postseason exit at the hands of the Dallas Mavericks last May.

The Thunder's defense did more than enough to win them the game. Oklahoma City is 11-0 in games they let up less than 100 points, a mark that stays intact due to this game not counting statistically for either side but now reads with an asterisk.

Oklahoma City's offense was, well, offensive. The Thunder mustered just 81 points with superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and rising star Jalen Williams laboring to 21 points on 33% shooting and 18 points on 40% shooting respectively. That is before you mix in the Thunder's dreadful shooting from downtown going just 5-for-32.

The Bucks used a similar formula Dallas deployed in the Thunder's last high stakes game. Packing the paint in tight with capable rim defenders, with aggressive wings harrasing Oklahoma City's ball handlers with its physicality tonight.

From there, OKC's role players could not make the Bucks pay for the attention paid inside, falls flat in a cash for clunkers game as the Thunder still take home an increased payday for playing this additional game.

When visions of those May Mavericks games come floating back to the Thunder, many shutter. However, is this an indictment on a 20-5 team? No.

I get it, with no NBA action on Wednesday to turn the page to, it is supposed to be time for fire and pitchforks. The reality is, there was a reason the results were the same in this game.

For all the moves Sam Presti went out and made this offseason, the roster as it stands right now is the same. Oklahoma City still only has one NBA caliber center active, not enough shooting (percentage or volume this go around) and lost the rebounding battle 63-51. Different verse, same as the first.

Oklahoma City will not look different, until its health allows. How much does Chet Holmgren alter this game? With his ability to knock in long-range shots and bend defenses, one can assume the Gonzaga product would take pressure off the Thunder's offense. Oklahoma City dominated the Holmgren minutes in that infamous Mavericks series. That would also give the Thunder two seven-footers for the first time with this core.

The Thunder went from the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA a year ago to a team that is 19th now. A concern? Absolutely. Something that can't be fixed? No chance. Forgetting about February's trade deadline for the moment - there is plenty of time to speculate on that - the 3-point improvement can still come internally.

Isaiah Joe is just now a 38 percent 3-point shooter after his early season struggles, still down from the 40 percent mark a year ago. Does he stand room to improve, dare I say expected improvement? You bet.

Cason Wallace posted 40 percent from deep a year ago and is now shooting a lowly 29 percent from deep without even attempting one in this Bucks game. Alex Caruso also shot the trey ball at a 40 percent clip last year, this season? You guesed it, a dreadful 26 percent from 3-point land.

Surely, these numbers were swing in a positive direction, progressing to the mean. Even for Caruso's career, if you figure the 40 percent mark to be an outlier, he shoots 37 percent from 3. He is over ten percentage points off his career average on cleaner looks. The Texas A&M product did not forget how to shoot, this is just a small sample size. Jolly ole St. Nick has not even squeezed down the chimney yet.

Oklahoma City is still the youngest team in the NBA *Pause to allow 90 percent of the reads roll their eyes* I know, it has been said for the past half decade but the facts are the facts, no matter how tired you are of hearing it.

What else do those Mavericks and these Bucks have in common? The combination of Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic as well as Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard have played in twice as many big games as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams have. It is not unreasonable to say this Thunder team is still learning and needs the battle scares before its able to win games in this style.

"When you lose a game like tonight, it gives you wisdom. It gives you information on yourselves. As long as we're growing through all those experiences, then we'll gain momentum as the season goes on with a young team and a team that's growing through everything," Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault said after the Bucks loss.

We are not too far removed from the NBA echo chamber spitting hot takes about the Boston Celtics, the common topic being, can Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum win together? That is all in the rearview now, after shortcoming after shortcoming as the young Celtics attempted to figure out life in the NBA while being an ultra-talented team - now, the Celtics are viewed an infallible and on course to be the next great NBA dynasty, with every other team playing for second.

Sure, it would've been nice for the OKC Thunder to celebrate an NBA Cup championship, but it still picked up a valuable lesson in its glorified exhibition game. Now, it is about implementing these lessons.

This is not to convince you that Oklahoma City is some perfect team. They are not. OKC needs more consistent shooting, Jalen Williams has to figure out how to score against physical defenses and the Thunder need to get healthy so it has additional size down low.

It is just to say, Tuesday is not an indication that this Thunder squad can not win big games. Oklahoma City is still one of the best teams in the NBA, beating Dallas and Houston en route to the title game. The Thunder just came up short against the Bucks.

Stiles Points:

• While no team has a game plan to stop the Greek Freak, you absolutely sign on the dotted line to contain him to just 26 points. Oklahoma City did what it had to on defense, but could not overcome poor offense.
• Isaiah Joe continues to show, despite his hot start in the first five minutes of this game, he is not a good starter. Perhaps he is more comfortable off the bench. Perhaps, it is easier to get him looks as the second or third option playing alongside just Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at the end of frames verses starting them with Jalen Williams, Lu Dort and Isaiah Hartenstein taking attempts. But the sample size continues to grow that Joe is not the answer in the first half.
• Cason Wallace had a silent night on Tuesday, after a strong stretch as a starter. His ability to read and react on the floor is tailor made for the first five, where he plays his best offensive basketball.
• Alex Caruso turned in another forgettable game offensively and eventually has to break through in this Thunder's unique style.

Song of the Day: Blue Christmas by Elvis Presley

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