Stiles Points: How Will Success Be Defined for 2024–25 OKC Thunder Season?

The Oklahoma City Thunder have easily turned in a successful season leading up to the 2024-25 campaign, but what will be that marker of success this season?

Dec 8, 2023; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren (7), and guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) celebrate after Chet Holmgren scores a basket against the Golden State Warriors during the second half at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports / Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports

Over half the fun of watching the NBA is getting to make predictions and then condemn or praise teams for living up to or failing to live up to the expectations placed on them at the beginning of the season.

For the Oklahoma City Thunder, success has been easy to come by. With no one expecting the 2022-23 squad to sniff the postseason, their surprising Play-in tournament run earned them an overwhelming stamp of approval. The next season, when the team made another 15-plus win leap and grabbed the No. 1 seed out West after being projected to possibly sneak into the top-six, it was again a season that was deemed worthy of celebration.

However, the 2024-25 version of the Oklahoma City Thunder isn't so lucky. It is impossible for them to overshoot their expectation level as the projections have risen to the point of everyone projecting the team to win the West and battle the Boston Celtics in the NBA Finals.

This makes an overwhelming success near impossible without some form of hardware. According to FanDuel the Thunder's win total is set at 56.5 with +300 odds to win the Western Conference ranking ahead of the second-place Minnesota Timberwolves who check in with +450 odds.

Of course, barring major injuries, If the Thunder fail to make the top six - and especially the top ten - it would go down as a disastrous season, as would losing in the opening round.

Even if Oklahoma City doesn't host a first-round series it would go down as a disastrous campaign barring major injuries that leave impactful players sidelined for long stretches of the season.

That takes things to the second round without even a hint of satisfaction for this still-young Thunder squad. Should Oklahoma City be bounced in the second round it will be a wildly disappointing year - though in the competitive West, the contest around the series could save this outcome from disaster. Though without missing key pieces this can not in any way be viewed as a success.

At least to this scribe, reaching the Western Conference Finals regardless of outcome would be a success for a team still leaning on a 22-year-old and 23-year-old to drive the bus next to their MVP candidate. However, it would not earn them any blue ribbons to most who will still hold a lack of Finals appearance against them.

Winning the Western Conference is the first benchmark that should net the OKC Thunder rave reviews following the season. Even if they fall short and the Eastern Conference wins another Larry O'Brien, just getting to that stage with this young core, all the stockpiled assets and more years of development on tap, they would absolutely be on schedule similar to the Boston Celtics falling short to the Golden State Warriors in 2022.

While winning the NBA Finals of course hands the Thunder all the accolades, changes legacies and starts talk of a dynasty, once the outcomes are laid out on paper, it is hard to come across scenarios where OKC Thunder fans do not walk away from 2024-25 a touch disappointed.

The Thunder have a championship-level core and this will be the terms and conditions for each season moving forward so long as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are intact as a trio.

Stiles Points:

• Victor Wembanyama will take on Gilgeous-Alexander in the Olympic Quarterfinals which is set for 11:30 on Aug. 6. This is another grand stage for Gilgeous-Alexander to continue to impress a National audience against one of the most popular players in the sport.
• Lauri Markkanen appears to be trending toward inking his extension with Utah which will make him ineligible to be traded this season if it is past Wednesday of this week, it means a whole lot for the OKC Thunder who owns Utah's first-round pick in 2025 (Top-five protected).
• Surprisingly, the Paycom Center ranked in the top 20 of professional sports venues, but in reality, it is closer to the bottom ten of NBA venues under most criteria. However, the Paycom Center will always be able to beat out the Smoothie King Center.
• By my count we have 30 more days until the NBA is back in the news cycle at full force heading into media day and training camp, so along the way I will review Elvis movies to pass the time. Starting out with King Creole which is a fantastic film, one of his bests and should be seen in Black and White - Presley plays a High School dropout turned swing club dancer Danny Fisher all while being wrapped up with a local crime boss who Fisher eventually takes down. One of the best title tracks of any of his 31 films with Trouble having tremendous replay value and Crawfish being a top-ten Elivs made-for-movie song. 4.5 stars.

Song of the Day: Polk Salad Annie by Elvis Presley

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