Three Reasons the OKC Thunder Could Hit the Under on 2024-25 Win Total Projections

While there is plenty of optimism in Oklahoma City after a few big offseason acquisitions, there is still a chance the team could underperform after overachieving in 2023-24.

May 15, 2024; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Luguentz Dort (5) drives to the basket / Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports

After an impressive performance last year and a big offseason headlined by two solid additions, the Oklahoma City Thunder are expected to be one of the best teams in the NBA in 2024-25.

With an MVP candidate, a handful of rising stars, multiple solid role players and two new veterans who add different skill sets to the team, there are plenty of reasons to be excited about OKC's squad heading into the upcoming season.

FanDuel Sportsbook, a popular betting service, placed the Thunder's over/under win total at 56.5 games as of August 11.

Last year, Mark Daigneault's team won 57 games in the regular season, a stunning leap after winning 40 games in 2022-23. With OKC exceeding 56.5 wins last season and seemingly improving over the offseason, it is easy to see how many observers believe the Thunder should once again hit the over on its over/under win total.

There are a handful of circumstances, however, that could lead to the Thunder winning fewer games than they did in 2023-24.

Injuries in a strong Western Conference

Oklahoma City was fortunate to have a very healthy lineup last year, leading to the team's starters getting to play plenty of minutes together.

The Thunder have multiple key players who have had injuries in the past, though, and may not be as lucky in 2024-25.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren have both missed significant times at points throughout their NBA careers with Holmgren missing all of what should have been his rookie season and Gilgeous-Alexander playing just 35 games in 2020-21 and 56 games the following season.

Additionally, heralded wing addition Alex Caruso played just 41 games during his first season with the Chicago Bulls and has played more than 70 games only once in his career.

In a strong Western Conference that will be competitive once again, losing any of the aforementioned players for any stretch of the season could result in the Thunder dropping a few more games than expected.

Regression from beyond the arc

In 2023-24, Oklahoma City was statistically the best 3-point shooting team in the league, knocking down 38.9% of its attempts from beyond the arc.

Playing in a five-out offense that allows Gilgeous-Alexander drive towards the basket and pass out to multiple players on the perimeter for an open look, Daigneault's system requires good shooters from distance.

In 2023-24, players like Isaiah Joe, Lu Dort and Cason Wallace were reliable 3-point shooters, helping the team's offense run smoothly. If the three aforementioned players have an off year from beyond the arc, however, it could add up to a few more losses than expected for OKC.

Dort hit 39.4% of his triples last year, but had never shot better than 34.3% for an entire season until then. If the defensive stalwart is unable to replicate his 2023-24 performance from deep, the Thunder's offense may not be as consistent in 2024-25.

Additions not panning out as hoped

While Thunder fans and observers have high hopes for Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein, there is a chance that adding to what was already a close group of players skews the team's gameplan or chemistry.

Hartenstein hasn't proven to be a consistent 3-point shooter in his career, which could end up making him an awkward fit in the Oklahoma City's starting lineup, similar to Josh Giddey.

If either Caruso or Hartenstein doesn't like the role they end up in, there is also a chance one of the aforementioned players becoming unhappy hurts the team's chemistry.

While these scenarios are both possible, they seem unlikely. Caruso and Hartenstein are versatile players who should be able to impact the game in a number of ways and add different skill sets to a solid core.

There is also a chance, however, that the Thunder's new-look roster takes time learning how to play together and drops a few games in the process.

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