Inside The Thunder

Three Takeaways From Thunder’s First 20 Games

Analyzing key themes and asking questions through the quarter mark of the Oklahoma City Thunder’s 2022-23 campaign.

Dustin McLaughlin

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There’s no question that Oklahoma City has exceeded expectations thus far in 2022-23. Coming into the season, many thought the Thunder would definitely be one of the four or five worst teams in the league. Now, through their first 20 games of the regular season, the team named after a sound is starting to make some noise after winning 40% of their games.

Most of the Thunder’s improbable success can be explained by a massive jump in skill by their now-superstar, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The fifth-year guard is performing at an incredible level. One might say that he’s performing at an All-NBA level. Either way, he’s currently leading the league in total points scored and is also the current favorite to win the next NBA Most Improved Player Award.

But Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t the only one making a leap. A few of his teammates are stepping things up a notch as well.

The Thunder’s third-year forward, Aleksej Pokusevski, seems to have turned a corner and is providing valuable minutes as both a connector and roll man on offense and as a rim protector on the defensive end. Not only has he been filling up the stat sheet, it feels like he’s getting better as the season goes on.

In fact, in his last 10 games, the 7-footer is shooting 55.6% from the floor, 47.1% from 3-point range, and is averaging 16.5 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 2.4 assists while producing 3.3 blocks and one steal per 36 minutes. There aren’t many guys of his height that can do that.

Darius Bazley, who is in the last year of his rookie deal, has been playing more within himself and is thriving in an off-the-bench role as a defensive stopper and transition threat. Although his shooting numbers are a slightly down, his steal and block rates are way up and he’s provided a spark off the bench at times.

Sophomore Jeremiah Robinson-Earl still seems a bit out-matched due to his lack of height and length at the center position but his shooting appears to have taken a step forward. The Villanova product is knocking down 50.8% of his shots from the floor and 40.4% from 3-point territory.

Guards Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe have provided some much needed spacing and playmaking to the Thunder who have struggled to shoot the 3-ball so far.

Wiggins, picked 55th overall in the 2021 draft, has been outstanding as a complimentary piece to the team’s main ball-handlers, finding lanes to cut to the basket, occasionally dropping dimes, and converting open threes.

After being cut by the Philadelphia 76ers, Joe looks like he may have found a home in Oklahoma City. The third-year sharp-shooter has been Mark Daigneault’s go-to weapon when the Thunder need a 3-pointer and Joe has more than answered, converting a ridiculous 45.2% of his long-range bombs on a Curry-like 15.1 attempts per 100 possessions.

Even with multiple players putting their best foot forward for the Thunder, there are still a lot of questions about the team as a whole and how it gets better. But for now, let’s enjoy the positives.

Here are three takeaways from the Thunder’s first 20 games of the 2022-23 season.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is Definitely Him

If teams could manufacture point guards in a lab, they would look a lot like Gilgeous-Alexander. Standing at 6-foot-6 with a 6-foot-11 wingspan and an absurd ability to move in and out of space, the Canadian has unreal tools to work with. When you add in the fact that he has become a dynamic ball-handler, has elite mid-range touch and is arguably the craftiest finisher in the league right now, it’s easy to see why he has become a top five scorer.

Perhaps the craziest statistic to put things in perspective is the fact that the only other player under the age of 24 to put up over 30 points while shooting less than three 3-pointers per game in the 3-point era is Michael Jordan. He did it twice.

There’s no doubt that Gilgeous-Alexander’s play has been historically great so far. 

The Defense Needs Work

The Thunder got off to a great start defensively, and by the end of October they had recorded the seventh-best defensive rating in the league, holding opponents to 107.9 points per 100 possessions. Now, almost at the end of November, they are allowing 114.8 points, good for 26th in the league.

So, what is happening? The Thunder are getting killed in the paint because they lack a traditional center that has the size, strength, and length to effectively and consistently protect the rim and defend the starting centers of the NBA. This forces the Thunder’s wings to help off of their perimeter assignments which gives way to easier drives and even easier shots from beyond the arc.

Statistically, Oklahoma City is allowing 31.2 field goal attempts per game in the restricted area, which is the second highest mark in the league. To help put that in perspective, better defending teams such as Boston, Golden State, and Milwaukee allow closer to just 20 attempts.

Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault might want to give some of his better defenders more playing time, too. Pokusevski is just playing 23 minutes a night and Bazley is playing just a little more than 16. Daigneault might have to shuffle some things around, but he has the personnel to ramp things up on that end of the floor.

Can Shai and Josh Thrive in the Backcourt?

Questions have started to surface about whether or not the pairing of Josh Giddey and Gilgeous-Alexander in the backcourt can ultimately work. Both players are at their best when they have the ball in their hands and only knows how to make it work off-ball right now. That’s Gilgeous-Alexander.

Sure, Giddey will cut at times and you can hide him on defense on the other end most of the time, but are the Thunder really squeezing the most out of him by playing him alongside Shai? And of course, ideally, you don’t want to take the ball out of your best player’s hands.

According to the NBA’s lineup data, when Giddey and Gilgeous-Alexander are on the floor together this year, they are out scored by 10.2 points per 100 possessions. The 118.7 points per 100 possessions that lineup is allowing is the ninth worst mark when looking at a list of duos that have played at least 300 minutes together.

But it’s not all doom and gloom. The Australian playmaker doesn’t turn 21 until next October and he is just beginning his first season with the highly respected Chip Engelland as his shooting coach. Also, Gilgeous-Alexander and Giddey have only played 57 games together. That’s not even three-quarters of a season.

There is still a lot of time to figure out how to make the guards work together. But also, it is reasonable to have concerns going forward. Ideally, you would think that the perfect pairing for Gilgeous-Alexander would be someone who can handle the ball a little, defend at a high level, and at least be a decent three-point shooter. So far, Giddey checks just one of those boxes.

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Dustin McLaughlin
DUSTIN MCLAUGHLIN

Dustin has followed the Oklahoma City Thunder since their inception in 2008, and the NBA since the early 2000s. He's been scouting NBA prospects for 4 years and running.

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