Using Four Factors to Explain OKC Thunder Proficiency, Part Four: Free Throws

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shoots plenty of free throws, but the rest of the team struggles to get to the line.

Jan 13, 2024; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) prepares to shoot a free throw during the second half against the Orlando Magic at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Part One in this series details how a significant chunk of the Thunder's success last season came from two-way scoring efficiency. They ranked third in effective field goal percentage (57.3%) and fourth in effective field goal percentage allowed (53.0%), taking advantage of offensive possessions that resulted in field goal attempts, and vice versa.

Part Two shows why two-way turnovers are Oklahoma City's greatest team strength. They recorded the fifth-lowest turnover percentage (12.5%) and highest opponent turnover percentage (15.5%) in the league last year, an output that remained consistent from the prior season.

Part Three illustrates that two-way rebounding is the Thunder's biggest statistical weakness. They had the third-lowest offensive rebound percentage (25.0%) and fourth-highest opponent offensive rebound percentage (30.2%), giving their opponents about five more scoring opportunities per 100 possessions.

The last of Dean Oliver's four factors also deals with efficiency. Free throws are the most productive shots in basketball, so drawing more of them leads to better offense. The cumulative rim accuracy across the league last season was 66.3%, or 1.33 points per shot, while the cumulative free throw accuracy was 78.4%, good for about 1.57 points on every two attempts.

Free throw rate measures how often a team or player gets to the line and how frequently they make them, so the formula is free throws made / field goals attempted.

The Thunder had the fourth-highest team free throw percentage last season (82.5%) but only accumulated a 0.240 free throw rate on offense, which ranked in the middle of the pack at 17th. They allowed the ninth-highest opponent free throw rate (0.256) on the other end. Other than the three outlier teams, which were the Celtics, Lakers and Magic, Oklahoma City was about as center cut as you could get.

Comparing team free throw rate and opponent free throw rate in the 2023-24 NBA season. / NBA.com

The Thunder heavily relied on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's driving ability to generate more shots at the stripe. He attempted 36.9% of Oklahoma City's 1,759 total free throws last season, the second-highest share in the NBA behind Giannis Antetokounmpo shooting 39.9% of all Bucks free throws. Gilgeous-Alexander shot 87.4% from the line on 8.7 attempts per game, pairing his high volume with excellent efficiency.

Although the remaining rotation does not shoot many free throws, with Chet Holmgren being the only returning player above the league-average rate, they are mostly fruitful from the stripe. Holmgren and Jalen Williams combined for an 80.2% free-throw percentage on 6.5 attempts per game. Despite noticeably lower volume, Luguentz Dort increased his free-throw percentage by over 5% from the 2022-23 season to coincide with a 6.4% three-point percentage jump.

Kenrich Williams was the only exception, but he attempted just 14 free throws in 1,029 minutes.

Comparing 2023-24 free throw rate and free throw percentage among 2024-25 Thunder players. Dot size positively correlates with total free throws made. / Basketball-Reference

The 2023-24 Thunder excelled at two of the four factors, two-way scoring efficiency and two-way turnovers, but struggled with two-way rebounding and two-way free throws. They ultimately won 57 games and clinched the Western Conference's No. 1 seed because their strengths coincided with the factors most conducive to team success.

Dean Oliver's weightings gave the shooting and turnover factors about two-thirds of the four factors' importance, with Justin Jacobs' weightings putting them closer to three-fourths. Producing higher efficiency on field goal attempts and winning the turnover battle typically leads to positive results.

Statistic	Thunder Differential
2023-24 eFG% - 2023-24 Opp. eFG%	+4.3%
2023-24 Opp. TOV% - 2023-24 TOV%	+3.0%
2023-24 ORB% - 2023-24 Opp. ORB%	-5.2%
2023-24 FTA Rate - 2023-24 Opp. FTA Rate	-1.6%

Oklahoma City has clear objectives this season: keep dominating the first two factors and reduce the offensive rebound differential. Internal roster growth spearheaded by Holmgren and Williams, as well as Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso entering the equation, makes those goals more attainable than not.

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