Using Four Factors to Explain OKC Thunder Proficiency, Part Two: Turnovers

The Thunder's biggest team strength is reflected in their turnover differential.

Mar 8, 2024; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Luguentz Dort (5) steals the ball from Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo (13) during the second half at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Part One in this series details how a significant chunk of the Thunder's success last season came from two-way scoring efficiency. They ranked third in effective field goal percentage (57.3%) and fourth in effective field goal percentage allowed (53.0%), taking advantage of offensive possessions that resulted in field goal attempts, and vice versa.

The shooting factor remains extremely important, but teams cannot only rely on better efficiency to win games. Turnovers, the second of Dean Oliver's four factors, are harmful because they end possessions without a field goal or free throw attempt. The turnover percentage formula is turnovers / (field goals attempted + (0.44 * free throws attempted) + turnovers).

Too many turnovers can derail a hot shooting night, but the Thunder excel at keeping their turnover count down while forcing more than every other team. Their 12.5% turnover percentage (5th-lowest in NBA) and 15.5% opponent turnover percentage (highest in NBA) last season further emphasize how Oklahoma City, relatively speaking, maximizes every possession on both ends.

Comparing team turnover percentage and opponent turnover percentage in the 2023-24 NBA season. / NBA.com

The 2022-23 Thunder, who won 40 games and lost in the play-in tournament, also recorded a pristine turnover differential with a 12.7% turnover percentage (4th-lowest in NBA) and 16.3% opponent turnover percentage (2nd-highest in NBA). This trend solidifies two-way turnovers as the current team's greatest strength.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a ball security enigma, possessing the lowest turnover percentage on the roster despite the highest usage rate. His 150 steals led the league along with Sacramento's De'Aaron Fox. Gilgeous-Alexander is undoubtedly the biggest contributor to his team's turnover differential.

Alex Caruso has made two consecutive All-Defensive Teams due to his defensive impact and reputation. Counting stats such as steals cannot determine any defender's overall quality by themselves, as off-ball activity and shot contests do not end up in the box score, but Caruso's league-leading 2.9% steal percentage affirms his defensive instincts and quick hands.

Comparing 2023-24 turnover percentage and steal percentage among 2024-25 Thunder players. Dot size positively correlates with total steals. / Basketball-Reference

Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins and newcomer Isaiah Hartenstein are the other Thunder players who exceeded a 2% steal percentage last year.

Every returning rotation player had a turnover percentage below last season's league-average 13.7%, whether they were an initiator (Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams), off-ball shooter (Isaiah Joe and Cason Wallace) or play-finisher (Chet Holmgren and Aaron Wiggins). This consistency, paired with the roster's robust scoring efficiency, makes true offensive liabilities hard, if not impossible, to spot.

Caruso and Hartenstein each recorded less-than-ideal turnover percentages on their previous teams, which were somewhat offset by their low usage. Oklahoma City incorporating them into the system would, from the team's perspective, ideally decrease both percentages close to where the bulk of the rotation stands.

The 2023-24 Thunder excelled at the two most important team factors with a significant shot efficiency and turnover differential. Their ball security and forced turnover consistency have defined the roster for years and help make an outlook for this season as promising as ever.

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