What Are Realistic Expectations for Nikola Topic's First Year with the OKC Thunder?

While Nikola Topic will be sidelined for the entire 2024-25 season, Oklahoma City's lottery selection could make an impact once he is healthy again.

Nikola Topic stands with Thunder general manager Sam Presti / SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK

With a handful of talented guards and wings on Oklahoma City's roster, Sam Presti selecting Nikola Topic in the lottery of the 2024 NBA Draft came as a surprise to many NBA observers.

While Topic was projected by some outlets as a top five pick prior to a knee injury that will sideline him for all of the 2024-25 season, the Thunder's depth and readiness to win gave some analysts pause when reviewing the team's draft class.

Topic won't be able to contribute immediately in OKC due to his injury, but could become a valuable addition when he is healthy again.

As anyone who follows the Thunder knows, Topic won't be the first player to miss what would be their rookie season. Blake Griffin was sidelined for all of 2009-10, but earned an All-Star bid and Rookie of the Year honors the following year after averaging 22.5 points, 12.1 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game.

A foot injury sidelined Ben Simmons in 2016-17, but the former LSU standout still managed to win Rookie of the Year the following season. Oklahoma City center Chet Holmgren was second in Rookie of the Year voting in 2024 after missing what was originally slated to be his rookie season the year prior.

While the three aforementioned players prove that young prospects can bounce back after missing their first season, Topic is entering a much different situation than Griffin, Simmons or Holmgren were when they came into the league.

Topic will have to carve out his role on a team that is fresh off of a 57-win season and the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. Griffin and Simmons were both joining squads who had won less than 30 games the year prior, and Holmgren was the final piece missing in the Thunder's five-out lineup.

Additionally, Griffin, Simmons and Holmgren were all selected with the expectation of developing into a key contributor for their team. Topic is expected to be a valuable addition to Oklahoma City's lineup, but Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have already established themselves as the franchise's clear stars.

This puts less pressure on Topic, but also means it could be harder for the 18-year-old to find his role when he is back on the court.

With his talented playmaking and ball handling skills coupled with aggression on drives to the basket, Topic has the potential to be a solid backup point guard for the Thunder once he returns to action, serving as lead guard for OKC's second unit.

After being benched in 2023-24, Presti and Mark Daigneault designated a similar role for Josh Giddey before the 6-8 point guard elected to seek a trade.

With Topic's touch around the rim and free throw percentages, there is optimism that the young prospect could develop into a steady 3-point shooter, a skill Giddey could never master in the Modern Frontier.

If Topic does improve his shot, he will certainly have a big role off of Oklahoma City's bench early in his career, and potentially as a rookie.

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