Why the OKC Thunder Are One of the Toughest Teams to Predict

The Thunder have a bright future, but with a young core and many outside factors, predicting their success is far from easy.

The Oklahoma City Thunder should be fun this season, but correctly predicting how their season will go is nearly impossible.

The Thunder went 40-42 last season and finished just one win away from a playoff appearance. As the Thunder lost no rotation players from last season and are adding major contributing pieces, it may seem like another jump in wins is coming.

However, progression is not always linear.

While there are many reasons to be optimistic about Oklahoma City this season, skepticism is justified. Oklahoma City’s potential variance makes its placement in this year’s GM survey make sense.

Behind only the Philadelphia 76ers in the midst of the latest James Harden saga, the Thunder were tied with the Dallas Mavericks as the second toughest team to predict this season.

Although there have been young teams in recent years that have leaped into contention, it is not a common path. With three starters 22 or younger, the Thunder have many questions to be answered.

The biggest question mark for the Thunder will be Chet Holmgren. After the Thunder have spent most of the past three seasons playing without a center, adjusting to playing with a 7-footer may be challenging.

Holmgren has the shooting ability and can create his own looks on offense like most small-ball fives in recent years. But he is also comfortable in the paint and can be a force down there.

That could lead to clogged driving lines, especially in the first few weeks of the season. Holmgren will not be a significant problem in the paint, but going from no one consistently being down low to Holmgren being there will have a learning curve.

Defensively, Holmgren adds elite rim protection but lessens Oklahoma City’s ability to switch everything. There will be times this season when Holmgren gets beaten off the dribble on switches and maybe even hunted on that end, but his blocks and rebounds should compensate for those deficiencies.

Injuries will be a significant factor for every team. But with Holmgren’s history and others who have battled nagging injuries, it has been an overlooked key to Oklahoma City’s season.

Holmgren is the obvious concern after missing last season with a foot injury, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s health has been a minor concern for years. Gilgeous-Alexander remained healthy for most of last season and missed 14 games.

But Gilgeous-Alexander did not finish the two years before that by missing 26 games in 2021-22 and 37 in 2020-21. Although the Thunder managed to go 7-7 when he missed games last season, they will still only go as far as Gilgeous-Alexander can take them.

If Gilgeous-Alexander can stay healthy, he could be an MVP candidate and lead the Thunder close to, or even surpass, the 50-win mark. Although the Thunder need everybody to stay healthy to reach their goals, as long as Gilgeous-Alexander plays, he can help keep them afloat in the stacked western conference.

There is no doubt the Thunder have built a talented roster. In a perfect world, the Thunder would be near the top of the west with ease and might even be a contender.

But with many other factors up in the air, the Thunder will remain one of the toughest teams to predict.

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