What is Ceiling, Floor and Realistic Outcome for OKC Thunder in 2026-27?

A popular NBA podcast evaluated a trio of potential outcomes for Oklahoma City in 2026-27.

Jun 22, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; The Oklahoma City Thunder lift the Larry O'Brien Championship Trophy as they celebrate after winning game seven of the 2025 NBA Finals against the Indiana Pacers at Paycom Center. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The NBA season is rapidly approaching.

Media days are in the rear view mirror, and training camp is now underway around the league.

Preseason games begin within the next week, and the regular season tips off in less than a month.

With the 2026-27 campaign around the corner, a popular NBA podcast recently evaluated the ceiling, floor and most realistic outcome for every team around the league. The Deep 3 Podcast, hosted by Isaac Gutierrez, Donovan Smoot and Muhamed Coker, appears to be optimistic about Oklahoma City chances to earn the top seed and compete for a title.

Here's how the group ranked the Thunder in each of the following categories.

Ceiling

Gutierrez believes that the Thunder could return to championship heights again in 2027 after falling to the Spurs in 2026 and claiming a title in 2025.

"Ceiling, you're back on pace of being a dynasty," Gutierrez said. "You're back on pace to beat the Spurs, winning championships, multiple years, and being back in the finals over and over again, that's clearly the cards. ... Not just champs. 
I think, the framing of, 'dynasty' is back in the cards. We had that blip for one year, we're back to being an elongated stretch of being the top team, I think is the ceiling."

Gutierrez's opinion doesn't seem unreasonable, as the Thunder still have most of the integral pieces from the team's 2025 championship run and were derailed by injuries during the 2025-26 campaign.

Floor

Even if the Thunder can't ascend to a dynasty by winning another title in 2026-27, Gutierrez still thinks the team will be among the best in the NBA during the upcoming season.

"I think there's no chance they win less than 60 games in the regular season," Gutierrez noted. "I don't think any team has a chance of passing the Thunder, besides the Spurs."

Smoot and Coker disagreed with that assessment, citing OKC's multiple injuries during the past few seasons and highlighting the Thunder's offseason trades of Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins and Lu Dort.

Realistic

The trio seemed to agree on a realistic outcome for OKC this season.

"Realistic is probably 65 wins and a conference championship appearance," 
Smoot said.

"I would say one seed," Coker added.

"Let's see what happens with them versus Spurs," Gutierrez summarized.

After winning more than 60 games and reaching the Western Conference Finals each of the past two seasons, it appears unlikely that a team other than San Antonio could usurp Oklahoma City this year.