Analyst's projection system has Wolves taking major step back in '24-'25

With basically the same exact roster, the Wolves are going to go from 56 wins to how many?

May 30, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; NBA referee Marc Davis (8) talks to Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) during the second quarter in game five of the western conference finals for the 2024 NBA playoffs against the Dallas Mavericks at Target Center. / Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

Coming off of a 56-win season and a trip to the Western Conference Finals, the Timberwolves are generally viewed as one of the NBA's best teams heading into the 2024-25 campaign. That's why it's rather surprising that a projection system from ESPN's Kevin Pelton doesn't see it the same way.

Pelton's projections, which "combine box score numbers from my SCHOENE projection system, adjusted plus-minus data and my guesses at rotations for every team," have the Wolves winning just 42.5 games on average. That's good for 8th in the West, which would put Minnesota back in the play-in tournament. Huh?

"No projection is more surprising than the Timberwolves being barely better than .500 a year after finishing second in the West with 56 wins — albeit also two years after going 42-40 in Rudy Gobert's first season with the team," Pelton wrote. Here's more of his explanation:

"The Timberwolves have a league-low eight players on the roster who played at least 500 minutes last season: their five starters, Sixth Man Award winner Naz Reid, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and newcomer Joe Ingles. Add in the likelihood Minnesota will deal with more injuries than last season, when only one Wolves rotation player (Karl-Anthony Towns) missed more than 10 games, and that's a lot to put on first-round picks Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr. as rookies. Neither projects better than replacement level, a reason to expect the Wolves to take a step back during the regular season."

So basically, the Wolves are getting dinged for a lack of depth and potential injury regression? I mean, I suppose that's fair to some degree, but it doesn't feel like great analysis. Obviously, if Anthony Edwards or Towns or Gobert miss a big chunk of time, that would hurt, but I'm a little more bullish on the Wolves' depth than these projections are. Beyond what should be one of the NBA's best 8-man rotations, Minnesota has Dillingham, Shannon, Leonard Miller, Josh Minott, PJ Dozier, and Luka Garza ready to step in as needed. There's some young talent there ready to break out.

42.5 is a ridiculously low number for a Wolves team with this much talent. That's ten full wins below their Vegas win total of 52.5. The only way they end up in that range is if they're seriously hurt by injuries, which is a hard thing to predict.

But don't worry: Pelton admits that he made some changes to the model this year after it "correctly predicted just nine of 30 teams relative to their over/under win totals last season." So this doesn't feel like something worth putting too much stock into.