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Despite awful loss, Wolves can likely avoid play-in tourney by winning out

Thursday night's game against the Grizzlies has massive stakes as the Timberwolves try to avoid the play-in tournament.

Will Ragatz

Apr 8, 2025; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard Gary Trent Jr. (5) drives against Milwaukee Bucks guard Kevin Porter Jr. (3) in the first half at Fiserv Forum.
Apr 8, 2025; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard Gary Trent Jr. (5) drives against Milwaukee Bucks guard Kevin Porter Jr. (3) in the first half at Fiserv Forum. / Michael McLoone-Imagn Images
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Even after suffering one of the worst regular season losses in franchise history on Tuesday night in Milwaukee, the Timberwolves can likely avoid the play-in tournament by winning out over their final three games.

Had the Wolves held onto their 24-point lead over the Bucks with ten minutes to play, they would've been the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference (sitting atop a five-team tie), with a real chance to have home-court advantage in a first-round playoff series. Instead, they got flummoxed by Milwaukee's zone defense, gave up an unfathomable 34-3 run, and lost in stunning fashion, dropping to the No. 8 seed in the process.

The playoff picture in the West with three games to go.
The playoff picture in the West with three games to go. / ESPN.com

After the game, head coach Chris Finch and several Wolves players expressed that while it was a tough loss, the team has to quickly put it behind them and move on. That's the right attitude to have, given the importance of Thursday night's road game against the Grizzlies. That game in Memphis may end up determining which of the two teams avoids the play-in tourney.

If the Wolves can beat the Grizzlies, they'll have a great chance to win out. They finish their season with home games against the Nets (26-53) and Jazz (16-63) and will be heavy favorites in both contests. Basketball Reference still gives the Wolves a 55.5 percent chance to earn a top-six seed, and that number would go up significantly with a win in Memphis.

Winning out would get the Wolves to 49-33. Of the four teams who have 47 wins going into Wednesday night's games, at least a couple are going to lose another game. The Nuggets play the Grizzlies in Denver on Friday night, and the Warriors and Clippers will face off in the regular season finale in San Francisco on Sunday.

The Nuggets, who have lost four in a row, also have road games in Sacramento and Houston. After playing the Wolves and Nuggets, the Grizzlies finish the season against Dallas. The Clippers play Houston (who are resting their guys after clinching the second seed) and Sacramento before ending the year against the Warriors. There could be some losses in there. The Lakers are also just one game above the pack and two above the Wolves.

Seeding will likely come down to tiebreakers, probably involving multiple teams. The Wolves win two-team tiebreakers over the Nuggets and Clippers, but not the Warriors, Grizzlies, or Lakers. They'd come out on top in any three-team tiebreakers if either the Nuggets or Clippers are involved. They'd also win a four or five-team tiebreaker if it involves both the Nuggets and Clippers.

There's still a lot to be determined, but if the Wolves win their final three, there's a pretty strong chance they won't be participating in the play-in.

Of course, the argument can be made that getting the No. 7 seed and facing the Rockets would give Minnesota the best chance at winning in the first round, but that's a risky proposition. If the Wolves finish 7th or 8th in the West and lose that first play-in game, they'd be facing an elimination game — likely against the Kings, who always seem to give them trouble — for the right to open the playoffs against the top-seeded Thunder. Having to be in the play-in also means less rest before the first round begins.

Avoiding the play-in has to be the goal, even if it potentially means a tough matchup with the Lakers or Warriors in the first round.

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Will Ragatz
WILL RAGATZ

Will Ragatz is a senior writer for Vikings On SI. He is a credentialed Minnesota Vikings beat reporter, covering the team extensively at practices, games and throughout the NFL draft and free agency period. Ragatz attended Northwestern University, where he studied at the prestigious Medill School of Journalism. During his time as a student, he covered Northwestern Wildcats football and basketball for SB Nation’s Inside NU, eventually serving as co-editor-in-chief in his junior year. In the fall of 2018, Will interned in Sports Illustrated’s newsroom in New York City, where he wrote articles on Major League Baseball, college football, and college basketball for SI.com.

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