What would a Timberwolves-Knicks trade involving KAT look like?

Julius Randle would keep Minnesota strong in 2024-25 but about the long-term outlook?

Jan 1, 2024; New York, New York, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) looks to drive past New York Knicks forward Julius Randle (30) in the first quarter at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports / Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Maybe the Timberwolves will run it back next season with largely the same roster, but until the same unit runs onto the court together again there will likely be speculation that a roster shakeup – namely Karl-Anthony Towns trade rumors – is possible.

Over the weekend, Heavy Sports' Sean Deveney quoted an anonymous Eastern Conference general manager who apparently said the Knicks are "100% expected" to pursue Towns if the Timberwolves make him available. The anonymous GM, according to Deveney, believes the Timberwolves "just can't afford" to run it back with the same roster and that if the Wolves move on from Towns "the Knicks are going to be there" waiting.

While the Wolves will be over the luxury tax, and possibly the second apron, next season, there seems to be a willingness to pay the price after a trip to the conference finals. There's plenty of evidence from the right people that the expectation is to run it back.

Mike Conley recently said he'd be "surprised" if there were major roster changes. Head coach Chris Finch said last week that the Wolves "kind of have our main guys set," which could be construed as an indicator that Minnesota's top seven of Conley, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Towns, Rudy Gobert, Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker will all return.

Not only that, but Jon Krawczynski, who has covered the Timberwolves beat for two decades, has said "things could change" but the expectation is for Minnesota to "run it back" in 2024-25.

As we wrote last week, the contracts of Reid and Alexander-Walker make Minnesota's roster situation a bit tricky. If they keep Towns, Gobert, Edwards and McDaniels, who will make a combined $158 million next season – and $170 million in 2025-26 – they could have a hard time signing Reid and Alexander-Walker, who were probably Minnesota's two best players off the bench this season, to contract extensions.

Reid has a $15 million player after after next season so there is a very high likelihood he'll decline the option and receive a gigantic raise as a free agent. Alexander-Walker is due to make $4.3 million in 2024-25 before he becomes an unrestricted free agent.

Those are just a couple of reasons a Towns or Gobert trade might be a necessary evil for the Timberwolves. If it reaches that point and Towns is the player who gets traded, what could a deal with the Knicks look like?

ESPN's Zach Lowe recently said on his podcast that a Towns for Julius Randle deal might make sense for both Minnesota and New York. Towns would reunite with coach Tom Thibodeau in New York and give Jalen Brunsen help in the scoring department while Randle would keep Minnesota strong in 2024-25, but what about 2025-26 and beyond?

That's where Reid and Alexander-Walker come into play.

Randle is due to make $28.9 million in 2024-25 before he can exercise a $30.9 million player option after next season. If he doesn't exercise the option, which seems likely since he could get a lot more money as a free agent with mega TV money boosting player salaries, Minnesota could use the money it saves to pay Reid and Alexander-Walker.

"Is this team, as currently constructed, has it proven enough to keep together? I thought the Denver series definitively answered that question as a yes," Lowe said on his podcast. "You've gotta let it ride for another year despite the fact that you put so much money into the center position and are now playing KAT at the four."

"The financial reality is you're going to be bleeding off talent, you're going to have a talent drain financially if you don't do anything," ESPN's Kevin Pelton said in response. "Just keeping the talent as it is would require a stratospheric luxury tax bill that I don't think you can justify in Minneapolis."

Nobody knows what will happen, but if the Timberwolves and Knicks wind up in trade talks, Randle appears to be a name worth monitoring.