Why Jaden McDaniels is the Timberwolves' X-Factor

When McDaniels plays well offensively, good things happen for Minnesota.

May 6, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves forward Jaden McDaniels (3) drives to the / Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Throughout the course of the season, Timberwolves coach Chris Finch has often called Jaden McDaniels the barometer of the team’s offense. When McDaniels is getting and knocking down shots, odds are things are going pretty well for the Timberwolves offensively. 

After McDaniels scored 21 points on 8-for-10 shooting in a crucial victory over the Denver Nuggets in Game 6 of their Western Conference semifinal series Thursday night at Target Center in Minneapolis — a game that kept their season alive and forced a Game 7 on Sunday in Denver — Anthony Edwards called McDaniels the “X-Factor” of this Timberwolves team. 

“He’s the X-Factor of the team, I think everybody knows it,” Edwards said. “When he plays well, we win. I don’t know the percentages, but I feel like when Jaden plays well, can’t nobody beat us."

That's not a question of what McDaniels brings to the table on the defensive side of the basketball on a nightly basis. He's the Wolves' best perimeter defender, and frankly, one of the best defensive players in the entire league. But Edwards is on to something when it comes to McDaniels' play on the offensive side of the basketball. When he's on, the Timberwolves tend to win.

In the regular season and playoffs, when McDaniels has scored more than 15 points, the Wolves are 10-3. McDaniels has scored at least 20 points twice in these playoffs — Thursday's Game 6 blowout of the Nuggets and a Game 2 victory in their first-round series against the Phoenix Suns — and the Wolves won both of those games by double digits and a combined 57 points.

McDaniels isn't, and won't be, one of the Timberwolves' go-to offensive options. Not on a team that boasts Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns. But when McDaniels — who averaged 10.5 points per game during the regular season and is averaging 11.3 points in the playoffs — gets his offensive game going just a tick above his per-game averages, the Timberwolves tend to see a lot of success.

That was exemplified by McDaniels' standout performance in Game 6. He was successful in every aspect of the game. McDaniels was 3 for 5 from 3-point range. In addition to the 21 points, he tallied four rebounds, two blocks a steal and an assist. He finished with a plus-minus of plus-23.

But in the previous five games, the offensive side of the basketball was a struggle. He averaged just seven points per game on 38% shooting from the field and 17% from 3-point range. The shooting struggles were evident, and it came with the Nuggets not defending him honestly.

Denver will often sag off of him, or put Nikola Jokic on him to clog up the paint.

McDaniels made them pay in Game 6 by knocking down shots early and often.

“I would say I get more confidence as the shots go in, but it’s just staying even keel even if I miss like a couple in a row. Just knowing that I’m capable of making shots and just keeping that confidence instilled in myself," McDaniels said.

McDaniels also wasn't ready to go home, wanting to do everything he possibly could to make sure the Wolves wouldn't be eliminated at home Thursday night. He did everything the Wolves needed.

And the Wolves weren't off to a great start. The Nuggets opened the game on a 9-2 run, forcing the Timberwolves to call an early first-quarter timeout. Then McDaniels drilled a 3-pointer.

That kicked off a 20-0 Timberwolves run that completely changed the course of the game. And Timberwolves coach Chris Finch said that all started with McDaniels' 3, which provided a spark.

"He hadn't been shooting the ball well, hadn't necessarily been scoring it for us," Finch said. "... They're going to continue to give him good looks. It was his 3 that I think kind of sparked us out of that timeout. We really needed to see that thing go down."

They continued to go down for McDaniels after that early 3. And the Timberwolves will need to see more shots from him fall in Game 7 on Sunday. The Nuggets will likely dare McDaniels to beat them once again. He proved he can do it Thursday night. If McDaniels puts together a similar performance on Sunday, chances are good the Timberwolves will be on to the Western Conference finals.

"Hopefully this gives him the confidence to stack another one,” Finch said.