Luxury tax threat doesn't guarantee Timberwolves break up roster

A deep run could increase new ownership's willingness to pay the tax.

The NBA trade deadline hits on Feb. 8 and anyone who thinks the Timberwolves might trade Karl-Anthony Towns to shed his mega contract can put that thought to the side. 

"I'm just going to be crystal clear: They're not doing any cost-cutting trades this season. The team is too good. They're going to ride this out and see what happens," ESPN's Zach Lowe said to Timberwolves insider Jon Krawczynski on the Lowe Post podcast Wednesday. 

The elephant in the room with the Timberwolves is that they'll have $170 million tied up in six players next season, which would suggest inherent pressure to trim payroll to avoid paying the luxury tax. 

• Karl-Anthony Towns: $49.7m
• Anthony Edwards: $35.5m
• Naz Reid: $13.9m
• Rudy Gobert: $43.8m
• Jaden McDaniels: $22.5m
• Nickiel Alexander-Walker: $4.3m

Add up those six contracts and it's about $170 million, which is just $2 million shy of the projected 2024-25 luxury tax threshold. Overall, the Wolves have about $185 million committed to player contracts next season, which is $13 million over the threshold and would result in a tax penalty of around $24 million, according to Spotrac. 

"Do they just not talk about it?" Lowe wondered. "Karl must know on some level, if this goes badly in the playoffs, I'm the most likely out here because that's just the reality of it. Is it like Voldemort, just nobody says it, nobody talks about it?"

"Karl absolutely understands the dynamics that are at play here and he knows that there's plenty of chatter about trades and the future of the this team," Krawczynski responded, "but I think right now because of the level of success that they're having on the court they're able to shut that out a little bit more."

If Minnesota doesn't turn their first half success – they're 29-11 and leading the Western Conference by two games entering play Thursday – into a deep playoff run, the willingness of Marc Lore and Alex Rodriguez, who are on track to become majority owners of the Timberwolves in the near future, being willing to pay the tax would presumably decrease. 

"We haven't seen what Lore and A-Rod want to do, how financially aggressive they're going to want to be," Krawczynski told Lowe. "If this team goes to the NBA Finals, can I see this team paying a big tax and trying to ride it out for a year or two? Yes I can. If the team flames out early on in the first round of the playoffs and gets upset, yeah then I think there are going to be real hard questions to ask and probably going to be some changes that are made."

Lowe's response to that: "If the answer is not yes, the new owners should sell the team immediately. Because if the team makes the Finals, you just keep all the core guys and you try to make the Finals again."

Lowe also noted that the Timberwolves won't be threatened to pay the tax until after the 2024-25 season, so there isn't a rush to shed salary. Not now, not even this summer. 

"That tax, they don't have to pay that tax until next season is over. So you can go into next season way over the tax and see what life looks like in January, a year from now, and figure it out ahead of the trade deadline. It's not like this summer they have to preemptively get under the tax. It would be helpful, but they don't have to."

Lesson learned from their chat on the podcast: Minnesota's postseason success will very likely determine their approach to 2024-25. 

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Mar 22, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves minority owner Alex Rodriguez hugs forward Karl-Anthony Towns (32) as he leaves the court for hitting the game-winning free-throw against the Atlanta Hawks at Target Center / Credit: Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports