Blazers-Nuggets Preview: Can Nikola Jokic Keep Pace With Portland?

The numbers, analysis, film and more that will help decide Portland's matchup with Denver – plus a final series prediction.

Jack Winter

Blazers-Nuggets Preview: Can Nikola Jokic Keep Pace With Portland?
Blazers-Nuggets Preview: Can Nikola Jokic Keep Pace With Portland? /

All the numbers, analysis, film and much more that will help decide the Trail Blazers' first-round matchup with the rival Denver Nuggets.

To Double Or Not To Double?

There really is no stopping Nikola Jokic.

Jusuf Nurkic compared his former teammate to LeBron James and Kevin Durant earlier this week. On the cusp of his career season being coronated with the MVP, Jokic has indeed reached the exalted offensive heights reserved for true all-time greats. You'd hardly know it by how the Trail Blazers defended him during the regular season. 

Nurkic, a proud defender nearing his pre-injury peak on that side of the ball, spoke openly about the "team effort" needed to limit a player of Jokic's caliber. But throughout Portland's three meetings with Denver in 2020-21, Terry Stotts regularly left Nurkic and even Enes Kanter alone on an island with perhaps basketball's best offensive player – sometimes as the game hung in the balance.

The regular season is never an accurate reflection of the playoffs. Immediately after the Blazers, needing a win to avoid the play-in tournament, dispatched of the Nuggets in the season finale, Stotts warned against taking anything away from his team's blowout win relating to a first-round rematch. 

The postseason always stands apart from the months-long grind to get there, but that's more true than ever now. An irresponsibly breakneck 72-game pace and the endless ripples of COVID-19 diminish the importance of regular-season matchups even more. Playoff pressure magnifies every strength and weakness; expect Stotts and Michael Malone to act accordingly.

But the Blazers' strategy of largely dealing with Jokic one-on-one, backwards as it seems on the surface, should remain in place regardless – at least until he feasts enough to force Portland out of it. 

Jokic shot an elite 55.6 percent from the post this season, per NBA.com/stats, better than Joel Embiid and Zion Williamson. He was even more efficient in isolation, shooting 57.6 percent, second in the league to Williamson. 

What makes Jokic so special aren't just the Sambor Shuffles, unguardable left-shoulder hooks, high-arching face-up jumpers or powerful, pirouetting floaters, though. It's all that coupled with the otherworldly court vision and passing flair that's why he's a truly unique historical outlier, and more importantly for the Nuggets, among the most additive superstars in recent memory.

The eye test alone confirms that standing. Jokic might be the best high-low playmaker ever, routinely getting his teammates easy looks at the rim with pinpoint bounce passes through traffic or lofting lobs to backdoor cutters. His increased speed and mobility this season has unlocked even more playmaking avenues, like operating as a pick-and-roll ball handler and flying off screens away from the ball.

This cross-court hockey assist appears relatively mundane at first glance. But Jokic's ability to map the floor multiple steps ahead of the defense – in this case, immediately kicking the ball to the weak corner upon catching off a back screen – consistently creates open looks for his teammates that even most upper-echelon playmakers can't.

Players like LeBron, Durant and Jokic literally have it all offensively. Defenses can't try to take everything away from them without getting overwhelmed by versatility. It takes a more pointed effort to limit all-time players under the postseason pressure cooker, and for Portland that means letting Jokic get his own offense one-on-one – as long as racking up points comes at the expense of making teammates better.

According to ESPN's Vincent Johnson, Denver averaged a staggering 1.54 points per possession when Jokic faced a double-team in the post. That didn't just easily top the league this season, but is by far the highest mark of any player in basketball dating back to 2013-14.

Nurkic is a solid individual matchup on Jokic – much better than conventional wisdom suggests, even with concerns about foul trouble enduring. His natural girth prevents Jokic from backing him down into the basket, and his initial quickness – even maneuvering off-ball screens on the move – has occasionally proven enough to stymie Jokic off the bounce. 

Jokic will score often and efficiently no matter how stout Nurkic's individual defense proves. Ask Rudy Gobert, who surrendered 26.4 points per game to Jokic on 62.4 percent true shooting during Denver's epic first-round battle with the Utah Jazz in the bubble. Even forcing an initial miss from Jokic won't necessarily yield a stop for the Blazers.

Portland will be very tempted to abandon its likely pregame plans and send extra attention at Jokic. It'll take supreme discipline from help defenders to stay scheme and assignment sound when he's exploiting single coverage, never more so than from the center of the floor.

The Nuggets love screening Jokic into isolations at the nail, where he can survey the entire court and anticipate help before the defense commits. They'll go right at Nurkic and certainly Kanter with that action, effectively implementing it when the Blazers – wary of Jokic's three-ball and newfound burst attacking close-outs – automatically switch pick-and-pops, too.

Jokic backing down C.J. McCollum from the free-throw line? That's the perfect time for Portland to deviate from its large-scale commitment to staying home and throwing additional defenders at him, especially with marginal outside shooters standing one pass away. Nurkic was unbothered by the prospect of PJ Dozier firing a catch-and-shoot wing three on the possession above, and rightfully so.

Denver, wrecked by injuries on the perimeter, just won't have much choice but to surround Jokic with teammates the Blazers feel comfortable leaving. When the time inevitably comes to get the ball out of his hands, Portland can glean confidence from the fact that Jokic can only make these teammates so much better. 

The Murray Effect

It would be much different if Jamal Murray hadn't torn his ACL on April 12, taking Denver's most realistic championship hopes in over a decade down with him. He was proving before his injury that last season's playoff performance was no fluke, shooting, passing and cutting with the relentless verve and unbelievable skill that propelled him to bubble superstardom.

There's no replacing Murray. His two-man game with Jokic is peerless, an endless wellspring of options offensively that makes life much easier on themselves and the Nuggets' supporting cast.

Not that Jokic needs Murray to thrive. 

Despite his share of assisted baskets dipping from 57.3 percent to 45.7 percent after Murray's injury, Jokic was actually more efficient. His true shooting percentage alongside Murray this season was a stellar 65.6, per NBA.com/stats, a hair worse than his 66.2 percent true shooting over the last month of the regular season.

None of Jokic's available teammates, and only a few other luminaries across the league, are capable of existing in that vacuum of individual excellence. Making a bad situation worse for Denver? Murray's would-be replacements aren't exactly healthy, either. 

Will Barton is iffy for Game 1 in wake of a hamstring injury that's sidelined him since April 23. Dozier, fighting an adductor strain in his right hip, may not play in the first round at all.

Just don't tell Damian Lillard the Nuggets' injury woes make them any less formidable.

"I mean, they're not at full strength but a wounded animal is the most dangerous animal," he said, per Sam Amick of The Athletic. "I'm not going into here even thinking about who's not on the floor, because the MVP of the league is on the floor."

The prospect of Jokic lifting his teammates to new heights won't loom as large, though, if the Blazers mostly stay home and know their personnel.

Michael Porter Jr. is a deserving Most Improved Player frontrunner, his case burgeoned by managing even more efficient offense without Murray in the lineup. But Porter's increased usage and productivity hasn't been manifested by sopping up the ball-handling and playmaking void left by Murray's absence.

It's reductive comparing Porter to a bigger Klay Thompson offensively, but telling that his sky-high rate of assisted baskets – just below 70 percent – was basically unmoved once Murray went down. His four-dribble, 27-point outing versus the Philadelphia 76ers on March 30 resembled Thompson's vintage scoring outbursts, too.

It's unclear where the Nuggets will get some much-needed off-dribble and playmaking dynamism if Barton can't go, or proves as limited within postseason intensity as his month-long absence suggests.

Porter isn't that player for now. Neither is Aaron Gordon. Facundo Campazzo is a maestro with the ball, but at an inherent disadvantage due to his physical profile. The unfortunate reality for Denver is that Monte Morris and Austin Rivers, the former a career backup and latter playing for his seventh team in nine seasons, might be its most optimal source of perimeter playmaking beyond Jokic.

That's why Barton is arguably this series' single most consequential X-factor. If he's moving well enough to crease the paint and finish at the rim in ball-screen action, it will open up the floor and lead to defensive rotations that make Jokic's self-creation burden a little lighter. The same goes for any offense Barton can muster by his lonesome, even as simple as attacking inopportune switches or popping pull-up threes when the Blazers relax on defense.

Malone told reporters on Thursday that Barton's status for Game 1 is unknown, stressing that the Nuggets would be doing themselves no favors by rushing him back before he's ready. They need Barton to be as close to full-strength as possible when he's on the floor against Portland, even if that means delaying his return toward the middle of the first round.

But Murray's absence, already a specter hanging over Denver's postseason run, will be even more obvious every time Barton is on the bench – by way of injury or rest.

Who Else Scares the Blazers?

Barton, at least playing near his peak, possesses the varied skill and athletic traits necessary to be a threat on and away from the ball. Porter does, too.

Norman Powell will likely get the start on Porter despite giving up some seven inches in height. His 6-foot-11 wingspan somewhat accounts for that size differential, but the truth is that Porter can get his shot off over anyone at any time. Staying as attached as possible away from the ball is paramount while guarding Porter, and not just because he shot a scintillating 46.5 percent on catch-and-shoot triples this season, per NBA.com/stats.

Porter, a couple inches short of seven feet tall, is a massive target for Jokic on backdoor cuts and an impactful offensive rebounder. If Powell falls asleep or turns his head, there's a good chance Jokic will find Porter for quick-pull threes or cutting finishes at the rim.

Good luck to Portland trying to defend this early-clock side ball screen between Jokic and Porter, too. 

Powell, like every guard in the NBA, is prey for Jokic on a switch. Putting two on the ball means ceding an open pick-and-pop three to one of basketball's preeminent marksmen, with an unblockable release. Hedging and recovering is another losing proposition.

No one else on Denver's active roster scares the Blazers. 

Morris enjoyed a career year from three this season, but is hardly a deadeye. Campazzo is a below-average three-point shooter from everywhere but the corner, and at 5-foot-10 not much of a threat at the rim. Shaq Harrison went 3-of-14 from deep with the Nuggets this season. Rivers is capable of a random big scoring night every now and then, but was initially available on a 10-day contract for a reason.

Gordon is the most accomplished of Denver's ancillary offensive pieces, and on paper exactly the type of player Portland has long struggled to guard. The theory of Gordon offensively remains far more intriguing than the actual practice, though. 

He shot a ghastly 26.6 percent from three after the Nuggets brought him in at the trade deadline, and the Blazers should treat him like it. Among the benefits of slotting Covington on Gordon instead of Porter is allowing one of basketball's best help defenders some freedom to lay off his man, putting an extra, active body in Jokic's line of passing sight – key with Nurkic forced to spend ample time outside the paint defensively.

Portland will start with Powell on Porter and Covington on Gordon, likely leaving McCollum for Barton – or whoever starts at shooting guard – and putting Lillard on Campazzo. Just as they have all season, though, the Blazers will do plenty of switching one-through-four, whether circumstances dictate it or not.

Low-resistance switches across four positions would further mitigate Jokic's influence as a passer. He sees every crease, and boasts the size and ingenuity needed to make pretty much any pass imaginable. On the other hand, there will definitely be times Denver notices a switch and pushes Porter down to the post. He's far too long for Lillard and McCollum to manage effective contests on turnaround jumpers, though still has a rudimentary package of moves with his back to the basket.

Don't worry too much about Gordon going at the Blazers' guards down low. Lillard and McCollum are both solid post defenders, physical with active hands. Gordon will occasionally score on them with ease that suggests the need for a double-team, but it would be shocking if he sustained efficient offense as a regular post-up option. 

Where even these depleted Nuggets could really feast is targeting Kanter and Carmelo Anthony. 

Part of why it makes sense for Portland to at least open the series with tepid help and soft doubles on Jokic is keeping their worst defenders out of rotations, where Kanter and Anthony have to make quick decisions and show quick feet. Needless to say, they struggle with.both. 

It's incumbent on Stotts to curtail Kanter's time on the court with Jokic. He could center iso, off-ball cross-screen and pick-and-pop Kanter into oblivion, forcing the aggressive help that best weaponizes his passing and puts his teammates in advantage situations – by direct assist or otherwise.

But even that development, as Kanter or Nurkic is victimized, might not be sufficient with Denver absent Murray's firepower and on-and-off-ball playmaking. Dozier coming back would only give Jokic a worse shooter beside him to clank another triple or further cramp the floor. 

McCollum dared Jokic on Sunday to hit a wide-open Harrison for a strong-side corner three that was subsequently air-balled.

The Nuggets took a slightly larger share of their shots from beyond the arc after Murray's injury, but Jokic's three-point rate barely budged. 

An offense deploying worse shooters launching more triples isn't exactly a ringing endorsement of its vitality, especially as playoff defenses await. Neither is Denver shooting an expectedly subpar 36.3 percent from three since April 13, no matter the composition of its opponent's offense.

What Can the Nuggets Take Away?

The Nuggets ranked 23rd in opponent's three-point frequency this season, and hemorrhaged even more triples after Murray's injury. That's a problem against the Blazers, who took a whopping 41.8 percent of their shots from beyond the arc, per Cleaning the Glass, second only to the Utah Jazz.

Anfernee Simons shot a scorching 51.4 percent on catch-and-shoot threes. McCollum wasn't far behind him at 47.6 percent. Lillard and Powell came in at 45.4 percent and 43.2 percent on spot-up triples, respectively. Anthony was just below 40 percent, and Robert Covington – leading the team at 4.4 attempts per game – at 37.9 percent.

Catch-and-shoot threes aren't even the hallmark of Portland's reliance on the arc. But they'll take on extra importance in the first round, with Denver's aggressive defensive scheme out to prevent pull-up tries from Lillard, McCollum and Powell. Don't forget Simons, either.

"Those three guards put a tremendous amount of pressure on your defense, especially from the three-point line," Malone said on Thursday. "So that would probably be the number one concern: Can we guard the three somehow, some way?"

Jokic didn't get quite as far out on the floor in ball-screen coverage this season as he has in years past. There's definitely a chance the Blazers' off-dribble shooting goads him out beyond the three-point line instead of meeting ball handlers just below it. 

It's foolish for Denver to count on Lillard misfiring pull-up tries like this, no matter how pesky Campazzo's defense is.

This is a shot Damian Lillard expects to make.
This is a shot Damian Lillard expects to make :: NBA/NBC Sports Northwest

Malone's public agonizing over how to defend the arc isn't indicative of a coach unwilling to make changes. The Nuggets famously opened their bubble first-round series with the Jazz committing two defenders to Donovan Mitchell in pick-and-roll, getting exposed both at and behind the point of attack.

The problem for Denver is that Portland has answers for every coverage it could possibly see – at least when Jokic is on the court. 

Help defenders cheating an extra step to the ball from one pass away yields quick catch-and-shoot opportunities. Letting the Blazers' guards come around on- or off-ball screens with no defender to meet them surrenders pull-up looks and penetration that force more defensive rotations.

Note where the actions above took place, by the way: On the side of the floor, ensuring Jokic is involved with Portland knowing help will only come from the opposite one.

The Blazers will run side pick-and-rolls and dribble hand-offs to death in this series. The more Jokic is dragged into being an active part of Denver's defense, the better it is for Portland. It's protecting him defensively that most easily coaxes the Nuggets into scrambling, when the Blazers' many shooters stationed beyond the arc become most dangerous.

Of course, Lillard will operate in plenty of high ball screens, too. Stopping a few feet short of the ball to maintain his balance and protect the paint risks Jokic allowing an off-dribble three. But closing out too far might as well be a death-knell for Jokic, giving Lillard an even better chance to beat him around the edge – from where a winning numbers game always lies.

This isn't the time for a debate about Jokic's defense. The on-off numbers are hideous, artificially deflated by lucky opponent's three-point shooting, while some advanced metrics even portray him as a small positive. The Blazers certainly won't be treating him that way. 

If Denver adjusts on the fly to keep Jokic out of a primary action, Portland can immediately counter by seeking him out again, often with perimeter isolations after switches.

The Nuggets are probably better on defense without Murray – when Dozier is healthy, at least – and possess the type of size at forward that sometimes gives the Blazers' guards trouble.

Porter doesn't have the lateral mobility to stick with Lillard and McCollum, nor the first-step quickness to cut off Powell's hard-charging drives. He can be a factor at the rim as the last line of defense, though, helping Denver account for its center being stretched to the perimeter point of attack.

Gordon is also a factor at the rim, but doesn't contest as many shots there as Porter. He was acquired at the trade deadline as the Nuggets' defensive stopper, a role he's set to play in the most consequential playoff series of his career.

But LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard and Luka Doncic, the oversized alpha dogs Gordon was brought into slow down, don't play for the Blazers. Relentlessly chasing Lillard and scurrying with McCollum's dribble is a much different task, one ill-suited for all but the quickest 6-foot-8 wings.

"Now you are playing a team that doesn’t have that elite wing, that wing that you are so concerned about," Malone said Thursday. "Portland’s got three elite guards that put up unbelievable numbers every single night, and as you’ve all seen, we’ve been using Aaron Gordon to guard those guards. Whether it’s Norman Powell, CJ McCollum or Damian Lillard, and that’s going to be a hell of a challenge, not just for Aaron Gordon."

Gordon just might not be agile enough to consistently make life hard on Lillard. Portland went so far as to target him during the season finale, Lillard's eyes lighting up when Gordon was switched onto the ball. McCollum seemed to like that matchup, too, hastily putting Gordon in the blender before stopping for semi-contested pull-up jumpers.

Gordon will spend ample time checking Lillard regardless, but the bet here is the Nuggets doing lots of switching with everyone save Jokic. With Dozier's status questionable and Harrison's offense potentially making him unplayable, Campazzo might be Denver's best option on Lillard.

He's a bulldog, light on his feet and tough to screen due to his tireless effort and diminutive stature. Lillard makes as many difficult jumpers as any player in basketball this side of Steph Curry. Even if Campazzo is largely able to stay in front of him, that hardly means Lillard won't go off. The space he's able to create stepping back and stopping short for jumpers is even roomier while being checked by a defender standing below six feet tall.

Portland as a whole might as well treat Campazzo like a ball rack or practice dummy when launching from the perimeter. High-low lobs from Nurkic to cutters will readily available to Campazzo's man, too – yet another wrinkle Denver's lack of defensive flexibility makes tough to smooth.

Bottom Line

Maybe the Nuggets, second in the league by pulling down 28.4 percent of their misses, rule the offensive glass. Kanter and Anthony aren't the Blazers' only below-average defenders; Jokic is brilliant enough to render the entire roster hopeless at times defensively.

Porter could win Denver a game or two by splashing contested jumper after contested jumper after contested jumper. Gordon is talking a big game about doing more offensively, and the Blazers' collective lack of size and athleticism could help him back it up. Barton, fully healthy, has just enough versatility to his offensive repertoire to do real damage while masquerading as Murray in Jokic's two-man dance.

All of those developments are hypothetical for the Nuggets, and there are plenty to consider for Portland as well. But that's the difference between these teams as currently constructed: Denver has to rely on what-ifs for success, while the Blazers enter the first round knowing pretty much exactly how to achieve it on both sides of the ball.

Portland's biggest prospective adjustment is fully committing to double-teaming Jokic, the pitfalls of which aren't nearly as deep with the Nuggets so depleted by injury. What's the in-game or midseries strategic switch available to Denver that could pay similar dividends? 

There's too much shooting and scoring around Lillard to try and take him away by trapping ball screens, and Jokic doesn't want that task anyway. Gary Harris isn't around to face-guard Lillard anymore. The Nuggets' adjustments are even more finite on the other end, especially given the Blazers' recent defensive strides.

They had an impressive 108.2 defensive rating with Nurkic on the court this season, and their three-guard starting lineup was even stingier. Portland's starters owned a 104.8 defensive rating, fourth-lowest among all regular five-man units in the league, per NBA.com/stats.

There's a chance Jokic's singular dominance accounts for all those concerns and queries. He wouldn't be the first MVP to lead his undermanned team to postseason victory versus a more talented foe. 

"Everything for them revolves around Jokic – his scoring, his passing, his rebounding," Stotts said this week. "So how we can limit his effectiveness is probably the biggest key."

Clearly.

But the Blazers can beat Denver even if Jokic proves an unstoppable hub of scoring and playmaking, dragging his limited teammates to some of the best basketball of their careers. The same can't be said for the Nuggets if Lillard reigns just as supreme or close to it, and his superlative play to cap the regular season – not to mention the wildly encouraging state of his health – suggests he will.

This series would play out far differently if Murray was available. Without him, the Nuggets simply face too many questions to offset the two-way answers seemingly available to Portland. 

Prediction: Blazers in Six

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Jack Winter
JACK WINTER

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