The Numbers Tell A Different Story About Portland's Supposed Defensive Improvement

The Trail Blazers believe they're improving defensively, but the numbers during their six-game win streak say differently.

In the midst of a six-game winning streak, it's Damian Lillard's nightly MVP showcase and hot three-point shooting team-wide that's most propelling Portland to victory. But the Trail Blazers have also been stingier on defense of late, coming up with key stops when it matters most and generally playing with more connectivity and communication than earlier in the season.

Any effort to really measure Portland's defensive improvement of late, though, requires critical context – and yields a disappointing conclusion.

The Blazers' overall defensive rating this season is 115.2, third-worst in basketball. During their winning streak? That number's barely moved, dipping to 114.6, per NBA.com/stats. 

Portland's recent defensive performance has also been heavily dependent on competition. Half its opponents over the last six games – Orlando, Cleveland and Oklahoma City – comprise the league's bottom-three in offensive rating. Unsurprisingly, the Blazers fared far worse defensively in wins over Philadelphia, Dallas and New Orleans, failing to hold those teams even close to their season-long offensive ratings. The Sixers, Mavericks and Pelicans all scored at least 120 points per possession against Portland, comfortably above Brooklyn's top-ranked mark league-wide.

Maybe most discouraging? The extent to which the Blazers have gotten better defensively, if it exists, seems most related to shooting luck. Portland foes have shot just 33.3 percent from three over the last six games, well below their season average and right in line with the unsustainably low percentage shot by Cavaliers opponents, which ranks last in the NBA.

Needless to say, none of those numbers quite align with the narrative that the Blazers are turning a proverbial corner defensively.

If there's a silver lining here, it's the growing impact of both Robert Covington and Derrick Jones Jr. 

The former has notched 10 blocks in the last two games alone, while proving his reputation as one of basketball's most disruptive defenders – both on and off the ball – for the first time during his brief Portland tenure. Jones has split time as the Blazers' designated stopper with Covington, perhaps faring even better as an individual defender, and his relentless activity looms large in the Blazers' shifting 2-3 zone.

Anfernee Simons has made some subtle strides defensively, too, even if they've been mixed with a penchant for fouling that's a direct result of his lacking size and strength. Look how many times he rotates to stop the ball from his spot at the top of the zone during this possession against the Thunder.

The unfortunate truth is that Portland's defensive progress, at least until Jusuf Nurkic returns, is probably best measured individually. As the numbers make abundantly clear, the Blazers just have too many exploitable defenders in the rotation right now to hope for even league-average defense against quality opponents.

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