The Simple Adjustment That Could Help Portland Slow Nikola Jokic
Enes Kanter basically has no chance of stringing together stops on Nikola Jokic, but that's not really the point of Portland's radical defensive approach against the presumptive MVP. The Trail Blazers' decision to leave their bigs on an island isn't about preventing Jokic from scoring. It's about keeping the best seven-foot playmaker of all time from lifting the games of his limited supporting cast to new heights.
But the existing state of the short-handed Denver Nuggets' personnel means Portland doesn't have to choose so staunchly in favor of single-covering Jokic. Affording a step or two of extra space to players like Facundo Campazzo, Austin Rivers and Aaron Gordon isn't the same as letting Jamal Murray or even Will Barton get room to breathe.
Kanter understands that just as well as he does the target on his jersey when he shares the floor with Jokic. But when he entered Game 2 for Jusuf Nurkic with just over three minutes left in the first quarter, Kanter's teammates failed to provide him with even the simplest form of support defensively when in Jokic's crosshairs.
Kanter's first two defensive possessions, obviously, didn't do much to assuage concerns about Jokic abusing him one-on-one. Don't fault Kanter's effort, though, waning as it seems.
What you can't hear in the clips above is Kanter yelling for Anfernee Simons, guarding Monte Morris on the ball, to go under screens set by Jokic. Just one step toward the ball as Morris turns the corner is all it takes for Kanter to be at a worse disadvantage guarding Jokic than he is in a vacuum. Kanter just doesn't have anywhere near the foot speed to stop his momentum, close-out to a potential Jokic jumper and slide his feet while maintaining enough balance to cut off the dribble.
Nurkic is much quicker than Kanter, but he doesn't, either. By the end of the first half, Simons had learned his lesson about going under 1-5 ball screens. Nurkic, for reasons unknown, briefly reacts to Morris' drive despite both pointing for Simons to stay with the ball and knowing full well that Jokic is much more dangerous popping to the arc.
The Blazers adjusted at halftime, with the ball and help defender mostly on the same page in pick-and-roll action for the game's remainder.
Murray was the Nuggets' only high-volume pull-up three-point shooter during the regular season, and also by far their most accurate. Campazzo and Rivers both shot 27.3 percent on pull-up triples despite taking barely more than one per game, according to NBA.com/stats. Morris shot well at 38.2 percent, but the more telling indication of his off-dribble shooting threat is that he only attempted 34 pull-up threes all season long.
There's just no reason for Lillard to fight over the top of Campazzo ball screens, for instance, especially when lurching under them ensures Nurkic's full attention can be kept on corraling Jokic's catch and drive on the pop.
Again, Kanter is easy prey anytime he shares the floor with Jokic. He's just not quick enough, long enough or instinctive enough on defense to deal with the countless ways this peak version of Jokic can create his own offense.
Still, it's safe to say Portland would prefer a cutting layup at full speed to Jokic going right at Kanter on a nail post-up following pick-and-roll. Even Kanter can manage a high ball screen involving Jokic when he's not forced to lunge toward to the ball handler.
It's not just pick-and-rolls that the Blazers have a better shot at stymying if they dare Denver's dribblers to launch. Portland can also go under dribble hand-offs with Jokic, even when the action comes in tighter quarters below the three-point line.
What did Gordon shoot on pull-up jumpers? An ugly 32.3 percent overall, and the Blazers need to treat him like it.
There is no stopping an offensive player of Jokic's historic caliber, which is why the margins loom extra large defensively this series for the Blazers.
Just the smallest closed amount of space or faintest sense of additional body control for Nurkic and Kanter will at least make life harder on Jokic. In a matchup trending toward the consensus prediction of six or seven games, that could be the difference between Portland going home or getting to the second round.
Expect the Blazers to exercise that urgency come Thursday night, daring the Nuggets' role players to beat them by aggressively going under screens set by Jokic.