Outlier Shooting Dooms Blazers in Game 3 Loss to Nuggets

Portland's struggles and Denver's success from beyond the arc were the difference in a hard-fought Game 3.

Notes, observations, analysis, clips and more from the Trail Blazers' 120-115 loss to the Denver Nuggets in Game 3 of the first round of the playoffs at Moda Center.

• If you're a Blazers fan too frustrated by Thursday's result to read beyond this paragraph, at least take solace in the single most important takeaway from Game 3: outlier three-point shooting...on both sides. Denver shot 52.6 percent from beyond the arc en route to 20 made triples, while Portland's 14 threes on ugly 31.1 percent accuracy don't even accurately portray the extent of its game-long struggles. Three of the Blazers' treys came with less than 40 seconds left, after the Nuggets had already extended their lead to double-digits as Portland tried to extend the game with fouling. The Nuggets' red-hot shooting night – not to be expected again, given the absence of Jamal Murray – wouldn't have been enough if the Blazers had made just two of the many wide-open looks they consistently knocked down all season. Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum were both just off the mark on several pull-up threes, too. A loss is a loss in the playoffs, but Portland's process offensively was definitely good enough to win Game 3 even if the result says otherwise. 

• The turning point of Game 3 came with 5:17 left in the fourth quarter, when Jusuf Nurkic fouled out by hacking Aaron Gordon from behind on an and-1. Portland went small from there, a strategy that worked just as well as you'd think against the best offensive big man in the world. Jokic ate the Blazers alive late, scoring six points, grabbing three offensive rebounds and doling out three assists after Nurkic went to the bench for good. Portland tried everything on Jokic: switching and helping on nail post-ups, playing straight up with Robert Covington and sending aggressive double-teams to the post. It didn't work, further evidence of why the Blazers' approach of taking something away from Jokic might still be their best bet – despite another utterly dominant night from the MVP shoo-in.

• Lillard, as seen above, tried to keep Portland afloat in crunch-time even with his team facing the inevitability of Jokic on the other end. He put in a quick 13 points after Nurkic fouled out, getting to the rim at ease and draining a couple off-dribble threes while also creating for his teammates. It was too little too late, obviously, and the narrative will emerge that Gordon – who switched onto Lillard for the second half, just like Game 2 – at least somewhat shut him down. Don't buy into it too much. The Blazers produced good shots consistently when Lillard attacked with Gordon guarding him. On a night the open looks that Lillard generated over and over again fall, Portland gets a victory and he's feted for matching Jokic's brilliance. Lillard certainly wasn't immune from the defensive errors that afflicted the Blazers. But any notion that he wasn't awesome from the opening tip in a game his jumper wasn't quite on is foolish, and not just because he turned back the clock for multiple high-flying dunks.

that's how you feel, Dame?!?! pic.twitter.com/2wq37e67O6

— Portland Trail Blazers (@trailblazers) May 28, 2021

• There's no getting around how damaging Kanter was on Thursday. His minus 15 plus-minus was earned in the most glaring way possible on both sides of the ball. He was red meat for Jokic again from the moment he entered the game, and couldn't keep up with Paul Millsap and JaMychal Green when Michael Malone gave his best player a breather. Kanter has been unplayable defensively throughout this series. He's been frequently outmuscled on the glass by Jokic. He adds no value as a passer against Denver's scrambling defense, and isn't being used as a post threat on Millsap or Green. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson made a strong case for a rotation role after Kanter was mothballed in the third quarter, good enough that he opened fourth. Unfortunately for Terry Stotts, the decision to replace Kanter with Hollis-Jefferson isn't as simple as swapping their minutes – not with Jokic around. He'll kill any small-ball lineup, as he made forcefully clear in the clutch. Then again, it couldn't get much worse than what Jokic is doing to Kanter, either.
• Nurkic also couldn't do much to stop Jokic But what he provided as a back-line protector defensively and playmaking option offensively, somehow, came close to making up for it. Nurkic's numbers – 13 points, 13 rebounds (five on offense), six assists and a block – are impressive. His plus nine plus-minus led the Blazers, too. But the two-way impact Nurkic provided in Game 3 was palpable on nearly every possession, not just on those he grabbed another hard-earned board or made a highlight-reel pass. Nurkic's availability, in terms of both foul trouble and conditioning, might be the biggest X-factor remaining in this series as pressure mounts for Portland.

• Here's what we wrote about Austin Rivers in our first-round preview: "Rivers is capable of a random big scoring night every now and then, but was initially available on a 10-day contract for a reason." And the reason he's always been able to find a job in the league, despite never quite being able to catch on with a single team, is that he's capable of that random scoring night – even on the game's biggest stages, in its biggest moments. Rivers hit four threes in the last six minutes of Thursday's contest, the first of which broke a 91-91 tie that the Blazers had fought like hell to manage. His last three of the game was just as significant, a catch-and-shoot dagger from Jokic that put Denver up eight with 1:24 remaining. Rivers finished with 21 points on 50 percent shooting, and played a major part in the Nuggets keeping Lillard and McCollum from finding a sustained rhythm. He was massive in Game 3.
• Jokic made some very tough shots, and it's safe to say that Denver won't set another season-high in threes this series. There were some factors in Thursday's game that were beyond Portland's control defensively. But the Blazers also committed way too many simple errors of gameplan and engagement. Nurkic inexplicably laying off Jokic in semi-transition yielded an easy early three. Lillard was beaten backdoor by Jokic, who didn't exactly own a quickness advantage, after being forced to switch. Anfernee Simons helped off Markus Howard in the strong-side corner on a drive from Monte Morris. Portland routinely overcommitted to the ball when Facundo Campazzo, hardly a finishing threat, got into the paint. The Blazers' brief foray into a 2-3 zone didn't exactly look great. A silver lining? Those mistakes are fixable. The bad news is they're the same ones Portland, second-to-last in defensive rating during the regular season, has been making since late December.

Next up: Game 4 at Moda Center on Saturday, 1:00 p.m (PST)