Every NFL Team’s Implied Odds to Win the Division

Iain MacMillan | Jul 24, 2024

Dec 10, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) throws a pass in the first half against the Philadelphia Eagles at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports / Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Before we know it, the 2024 NFL season will be kicking off and the race for the playoffs will begin.

The easiest way for a team to make the postseason is by clinching their division. For some teams, that ask is going to be tougher than for others. A few squads look like shoo ins to win their respective divisions while others will likely be a battle that will come down to the wire.

In this article, we're going to take a look at the odds for all 32 teams to win their respective divisions. To make things a bit more simple to understand, I'm going to translate the betting odds to implied probability. If you want to learn how to translate the odds yourself, take a look below to find out how.

How to calculate implied probability using American odds

• If the odds are positive: 100/(odds + 100)
• If the odds are negative: odds/(odds + 100)

Now, let's look at the implied probability of all 32 teams to win their division in 2024.

All odds listed in this article are via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Note: Divison win percentages will equal more than 100% due to the vig or "juice" that sportsbooks take which is calculated into the given odds

AFC North Win Probability

• Ravens: 40.82%
• Bengals: 37.74%
• Browns: 18.18%
• Steelers: 11.76%

AFC East Win Probability

• Bills: 37.74%
• Jets: 37.04%
• Dolphins: 31.25%
• Patriots: 3.85%

AFC South Win Probability

• Texans: 48.78%
• Jaguars: 27.02%
• Colts: 24.39%
• Titans: 9.52%

AFC West Win Probability

• Chiefs: 69.7%
• Chargers: 22.22%
• Raiders: 10%
• Broncos: 4.76%

NFC North Win Probability

• Lions: 41.67%
• Packers: 33.33%
• Bears: 25%
• Vikings: 9.09%

NFC East Win Probability

• Eagles: 55.56%
• Cowboys: 37.74%
• Commanders: 9.09%
• Giants: 6.67%

NFC South Win Probability

• Falcons: 54.55%
• Buccaneers: 24.39%
• Saints: 20.83%
• Panthers: 9.09%

NFC West Win Probability

• 49ers: 65.52%
• Rams: 23.26%
• Seahawks: 12.5%
• Cardinals: 7.14%

The Kansas City Chiefs have the highest chance to win their division at 69.7%. The New England Patriots have the worst chance to win their division at 3.85%.

If you want to find out the probability for all 32 teams to make the playoffs, you can find that out here.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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