NFL Upset Picks for Week 1 (Bet Packers Over Eagles, Broncos Sneakily Undervalued?)

The Sports Illustrated team breaks down their favorite upset picks for Week 1 of the 2024 NFL Season

The Green Bay Packers will take on the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1 of the 2024 NFL Season. /

Everyone loves a good upset and no week in the NFL season is more ripe for them than Week 1.

It's the opening week of the 2024 NFL season and more often than not, we get surprised in the first slate of games. Right when we think we know how good a team is based on the previous season and their offseason moves, the unexpected happens.

Every week this season, the team here at Sports Illustrated will break down their favorite upset picks. Let's take a look at the list of writers, insiders, and analysts who will be sharing their underdog plays this season:

• Albert Breer, Senior NFL Reporter
• Connor Orr, Senior Writer
• Matt Verderame, NFL Staff Writer
• Gilberto Manzano, NFL Staff Writer
• Jennifer Piacenti, Senior Betting and Fantasy Analyst
• Peter Dewey, Senior Editor Betting
• Iain MacMillan, Senior Editor Betting
• Mitch Goldich, Senior Editor

Let's take a look at everyone's upset pick for Week 1 action. All odds listed below are via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Albert Breer Week 1 Upset Pick

Broncos +205 vs. Seahawks

Count me in the camp that believes Sean Payton was handcuffed in what he could do with his offense, and a rookie has the keys to unlock him—and so I expect to see, over the early parts of the season, two years of ideas and concepts spilling on to the game field after the coach’s year off in 2022 and last year’s season of transition.

I’d also mention that Bo Nix probably won’t be the only member of his draft class to shine, with Troy Franklin and Audric Estime also in the mix for a team that’ll grow as the year goes on. Add that to the transition Seattle’s going through with new coaches and schemes on both sides of the ball, and give me Denver to go on the road and win outright. -- Albert Breer

Connor Orr Week 1 Upset Pick

Panthers +170 vs. Saints

I think that Dave Canales and Brad Idzik have had a lot of challenges this offseason but, many times, a team that is so drastically reimagined over the course of a spring and summer can come out swinging and catch opponents by surprise.

We have yet to see Bryce Young playing free and I think he’ll let it loose against a very competitive and healthy Saints defense. It’s always risky to bet against Dennis Allen and a healthy Saints defense but I imagine it’s probably hard for those coaches to get a read on Canales, who has risen so quickly after his breakout performance with the Buccaneers last year.

Defensively, Ejiro Evero should continue hitting his stride as one of the most underrated defensive playcallers in the league. Despite being severely undermanned, Carolina can hang tough against a Saints offense that is going through some drastic changes of their own. -- Connor Orr

Matt Verderame Week 1 Upset Pick

Cowboys +114 vs. Browns

It’s not a huge upset, but it’s an upset nonetheless. Dallas had a bizarre offseason, but the Cowboys still have one of the league’s best defenses. Against Deshaun Watson, who has been atrocious since coming to Cleveland, that might be enough in what figures to be a tight, low-scoring game.

Offensively, the Cowboys have more talent than they’re given credit for. Dak Prescott might need a new contract, but it’s not because of a lack of regular-season production. Prescott finished second in MVP voting last season, only behind Lamar Jackson. He threw for 4,516 yards and 36 touchdowns against nine interceptions. He’s a stud behind a terrific line. -- Matt Verderame

Gilberto Manzano Week 1 Upset Pick

Raiders +136 vs. Chargers

The Chargers have a sizable advantage at quarterback because they have Justin Herbert and the Raiders don’t. But that might be where the advantages end for Jim Harbaugh, who will be making his coaching debut with the Chargers.

The Raiders have plenty of continuity after Antonio Pierce was promoted to full-time head coach in the offseason. That allowed the team to retain defensive coordinator Patrick Graham, who turned the Raiders’ defense into a top-10 unit last season. The defense might be better this season after the splash signing of defensive tackle Christian Wilkins.

With a ferocious front led by Maxx Crosby, the Raiders could give Herbert and his inexperienced receivers a long Sunday afternoon at SoFi Stadium, where many Silver and Black fans are expected in attendance. Yes, the Raiders have Gardner Minshew, but he has plenty of weapons with Davante Adams, Zamir White, and rookie Brock Bowers. It might take Harbaugh some time to fix a team that won five games last season. -- Gilberto Manzano

Jennifer Piacenti Week 1 Upset Pick

Packers +124 vs. Eagles

The Eagles’ secondary was one of the most generous last season, allowing the second-most passing yards per game (252.7) and passing touchdowns (35). Even though that should improve this season with Vic Fangio, the Packers are not an easy matchup.

Green Bay finished the season hot, and Love passed for more than 4.000 yards in his first season as a starter. We should see another step forward in his second season in LaFleur’s offense. The Packers also added Josh Jacobs in the offseason, improving their threat on the ground.

The Eagles have more star power, but questions remain about “vibes.” There’s been a revolving door at both offensive and defensive coordinator in Philadelphia but Sirianni has been constant. That may or may not be a good thing. In addition, Kellen Moore’s offense can be overly complicated, and it could take a few games for Hurts to settle in. I expect this game to be close, but I like the payout for the underdog Packers. -- Jennifer Piacenti

Peter Dewey Week 1 Upset Pick

Jaguars +136 vs. Dolphins

Just about everything that could go wrong for the Jacksonville Jaguars did in the 2023 season, and I think they’re a little undervalued entering the 2024 campaign.

Jacksonville still has a potent offensive attack with Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Evan Engram, Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and others, and they’re getting a shot at a banged-up Miami team in Week 1.

The Dolphins are thin at the receiver position after Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and there should be serious questions about both their offensive and defensive line after Christian Wilkins, Robert Hunt, and Connor Williams left in free agency.

Not only that, but Miami won’t have pass rusher Bradley Chubb (PUP list) and Jaelan Phillips is making his first appearance since rupturing his Achilles last season. I’m not sold on the Dolphins being a playoff team in 2024, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they fall short on Sunday. -- Peter Dewey

Iain MacMillan Week 1 Upset Pick

Titans +160 vs. Bears

Even if the Bears become a great football team this season, it’s going to take some time for them to get there. Outside of DJ Moore and Cole Kmet, every single skill player on the Bears offense is new to the team. D’Andre Swift was in Philadelphia last season, Keenan Allen was in Los Angeles, and both Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze were in college. Throw in the fact Shane Waldron is in his first year as offensive coordinator and it’s going to take some time for this offense to find its stride.

Meanwhile, the Titans quietly had one of the better offseasons in the league. They acquired L’Jarius Sneed from the Chiefs and signed Chidobe Awuzie on defense. Offensively they added Lloyd Cushenberry on the offensive line and Calvin Ridley at wide receiver. I think this team is going to be better than people think and are live underdogs in this Week 1 matchup. -- Iain MacMillan

Mitch Goldich Week 1 Upset Pick

Steelers +124 vs. Falcons

The Falcons are projected for one more win than the Steelers this season, but I think they owe a good bit of that to their schedules. Against each other, I have no problem taking Pittsburgh as a road underdog.

Both of these teams have interesting questions at quarterback. I am curious to see how good Kirk Cousins looks at age 36, coming off his Achilles tear and after skipping the preseason. And in Pittsburgh, Russell Wilson has been named the starter, but now it’s time to see whether Mike Tomlin is bluffing about having a Justin Fields package ready.

And that’s to say nothing about how effective either quarterback will be. But Pittsburgh has made a habit of winning more games than people expect, and I think on the strength of their defense, they can pick up one of them here.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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