Houston Texans

How many games will the Houston Texans win in the 2017 NFL season?

Projected record: 7–9

Forgive me for not having the same sort of confidence in Tom Savage as Houston apparently does. In five career games and 92 career passes, Savage has never thrown a touchdown—but he’s only thrown one pick, and that’s a much better rate than Brock Osweiler. (Who knows, perhaps Deshaun Watson wins that training camp battle.) Houston’s defense could be historically great with a healthy J.J. Watt, but Savage is too much of an unknown at the sport’s most important position to predict a fourth-straight AFC South title.

Pivotal game: Week 16 vs. Steelers. It’s possible the Steelers will be holding back at this point in the season, and the Texans would much rather see Landry Jones under center and no Bell or Brown on the field. Houston getting the 49ers, Jaguars and the Steelers’ second-string between Weeks 14–16 could change the team’s fortunes.