The Best DFS Values for Week 15
This week sets up as one of the more challenging slates in recent memory. Oddsmakers project just one game—Patriots at Steelers—for more than 50 points. Meanwhile, there are six teams favored by at least a touchdown, with three expected to win by double-digits. These factors tilt ownership and value toward a handful of offenses that happen to be some of the most prolific in the league. In other words, the best plays of the week double as some of the most expensive. Reliable, affordable plays are few and far between.
The following will highlight the most notable values from the 4for4 Lineup Generator for both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Editor’s note: “Value” doesn’t necessarily mean inexpensive, but rather the best bang for your DFS buck. These players, regardless of price tag, project to give you the most production per dollar this week.
Five Facts to Know for Week 15 DFS
FanDuel
Le’Veon Bell ($9,400) vs. Patriots
As is often the case with Bell, he is projected as 4for4’s top value despite having the most expensive price tag on the slate. The fact of the matter is that Bell’s workload outpaces both the field, and virtually any salary that he is assigned. Bell has accounted for 49% of Pittsburgh’s touches over the last six weeks and accounted for more than one-third of their total yardage this season. Oddsmakers have installed a 53.5 over/under with the Patriots as three-point favorites, suggesting plenty of scoring on both sides. No player has more opportunities inside the 10-yard line this year than Bell. For those debating between Bell and Antonio Brown, it’s worth noting that Bill Belichick often schemes to take away an opponent's top wide receiver. That’s easier said than done with the best receiver in the league, but it slants the decision toward Pittsburgh's running back.
Fantasy Football Week 15 Start ’Em, Sit ’Em
Kenyan Drake ($6,500) at Bills
Owners that are looking for a price-saving option at running back need to look no further than the running back that torched the Patriots on Monday night. Drake has accounted for 54% of the Dolphins total touches in both of their last two games, amassing 56 touches in that span. This week, Drake faces a Buffalo defense that funnels fantasy points to running backs—when adjusted for strength of schedule (aFPA), the Bills rank ninth in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, but are dead last against running backs. No team has allowed more rushing yards or total touchdowns to opposing backs than Buffalo this year.
Click here for T.J.'s full breakdown of the Week 15 FanDuel slate.
Fantasy Football Week 15 Sneaky Starts
DraftKings
Cam Newton ($6,400) vs. Packers
The Panthers host a Packers defense that ranks 29th in quarterback aFPA, surrendering nine passing touchdowns over the last three weeks. To add to Green Bay’s secondary struggles, they are expected to be without starting cornerback Davon House. While Newton has a great passing matchup, he adds extra value with his legs. Newton has rushed for at least 40 yards in seven of his last eight games, including four games with at least 70 yards on the ground. With Aaron Rodgers active on the other side of the ball, the likelihood of a shootout greatly increases, boosting the value of both offenses. After the announcement that Rodgers would start, the over/under in this game increased 1.5 points, the biggest jump of any game this week since the lines opened.
Click here for Chris Raybon's full breakdown of the Week 15 DraftKings slate.
Fantasy Football Rankings Week 15
Samaje Perine ($4,800) vs. Cardinals
Perine has seen at least 50% of his team’s touches twice in the last three weeks and he’s averaging more than 21 touches per game over the last month. Washington is favored by 4.5 points at home over a Cardinals defense that ranks 24th in running back aFPA. Over their last seven games, Arizona has allowed five running backs to score at least 18 DraftKings points. Perine should have added touchdown potential this week, as the Cardinals have the ninth-highest rushing rate inside the red zone of any defense this year.
