How Will Todd Haley's Tendencies Affect the Browns' Fantasy Football Production?

Todd Haley joins the Browns in a key season for the franchise. How will his tendencies affect the offense and translate to the fantasy game?

After ranking no better than 24th in total yards or points scored in two seasons with Hue Jackson doubling as head coach and playcaller, the Cleveland Browns hired Todd Haley as their offensive coordinator this offseason. Jackson has vowed to give Haley “total autonomy” of the offense in 2018—combined with an overhauled depth chart, the Browns are sure to look different than the versions we’ve seen the last two seasons. The following will examine how Haley figures to influence that change.

Snapshot of Todd Haley’s History

Haley has served as his team’s primary playcaller in each of the last 11 seasons with stints in Arizona, Kansas City and Pittsburgh. While coaches can have an impact on player usage, roster talent usually dictates which players touch the ball the most. In order to determine how a coach impacts an offense, a useful exercise is to explore their play-calling splits in various situations and game scripts. 

Year	Team	Overall	Rank	Wins	Rank	Losses	Rank
2007	Cardinals	60.2%	1	58.2%	3	71.8%	2
2008	Cardinals	65.2%	2	57.7%	3	76.9%	1
2009	Chiefs	56.0%	16	47.7%	18	56.1%	25
2010	Chiefs	46.3%	32	42.3%	29	57.1%	31
2011	Chiefs	51.1%	26	52.0%	24	58.8%	31
2012	Steelers	58.2%	12	56.7%	10	65.8%	17
2013	Steelers	60.1%	8	54.7%	19	72.7%	2
2014	Steelers	59.5%	11	59.7%	6	64.8%	13
2015	Steelers	60.2%	12	57.4%	2	66.6%	21
2016	Steelers	59.3%	13	52.0%	14	70.8%	1
2017	Steelers	57.5%	13	54.5%	4	64.9%	12

Year	Team	Neural*	Rank	Negative*	Rank	Positive*	Rank
2007	Cardinals	61.0%	2	75.3%	1	55.8%	6
2008	Cardinals	62.4%	3	84.3%	5	47.4%	3
2009	Chiefs	47.8%	18	61.5%	28	32.7%	19
2010	Chiefs	44.6%	32	67.2%	21	39.3%	17
2011	Chiefs	54.6%	31	60.3%	29	38.9%	26
2012	Steelers	58.5%	10	68.8%	12	46.3%	14
2013	Steelers	60.2%	12	77.3%	6	42.9%	17
2014	Steelers	61.7%	15	72.1%	5	42.8%	3
2015	Steelers	57.0%	4	75.6%	10	50.9%	14
2016	Steelers	57.7%	9	76.2%	2	41.7%	23
2017	Steelers	58.1%	6	71.9%	19	42.3%	7

*Neutral game script is when the score is within seven points. Negative game script is down by eight or more points. Positive game script is up by eight or more points.

While Jackson has traditionally preferred a run-heavy offense—his splits in Cleveland are grossly skewed by negative game script—Haley has opted for the pass more often than not. Haley’s offenses have ranked in the top half of the league in overall passing rate in eight of his 11 seasons as a playcaller and ranked outside the top half in passing rate in neutral game script just three times.

Where Jackson and Haley are in accord is in their reaction to game script. For Jackson, this is to be expected—playcallers that are more run-heavy in neutral situations tend to be more game-script sensitive, as they are forced to deviate from their original game plan the most when playing from behind. Despite being a pass-first playcaller, Haley also ramps up his passing attack when playing from behind—over his career, he’s thrown 15% more often in negative game script than in neutral situations, and 28% more in negative game flow compared to positive situations. Both discrepancies in game flow are above the league average. 

Haley’s Quarterbacks

Year	Player	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	INT
2007	Kurt Warner	14	20.1	32.3	243.6	1.9	1.2
2008	Kurt Warner	16	25.1	37.4	286.4	1.9	0.9
2009	Matt Cassel	15	18.2	33.0	194.9	1.1	1.1
2010	Matt Cassel	15	17.3	29.8	207.1	1.7	0.5
2011	Matt Cassel	9	17.7	29.8	190.8	1.1	1.0
2012	Ben Roethlisberger	13	21.8	34.4	250.1	1.9	0.6
2013	Ben Roethlisberger	16	23.4	36.5	266.1	1.8	0.8
2014	Ben Roethlisberger	16	25.5	38.0	309.5	2.0	0.6
2015	Ben Roethlisberger	12	26.5	39.0	328.8	1.8	1.3
2016	Ben Roethlisberger	14	23.4	36.3	271.9	2.1	0.9
2017	Ben Roethlisberger	15	24.0	37.4	283.5	1.9	0.9

One explanation for why Haley has been so pass heavy has been his quality of quarterbacks. In seven of his 11 seasons as a head coach or offensive coordinator, Haley has had a Hall-of-Fame-caliber player under center. His signal-callers haven’t been so dominant, though, that they would necessarily force Haley into pass-first game plans. Quarterbacks under Haley finished in the top 10 in quarterback rating five times and one of those instances was Matt Cassel in 2010.

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Haley’s Running Backs

Year	Player	G	Att	Yds	TD	Tgt	Rec	Yds	TD	PPR	Touch%
2007	Edgerrin James	16	20.2	76.9	0.4	2.4	1.6	12.2	0.0	13.1	80.9%
2008	Tim Hightower	16	8.9	25.0	0.6	3.1	2.1	14.4	0.0	9.8	45.5%
2009	Jamaal Charles	15	12.7	74.7	0.5	3.7	2.7	19.8	0.1	15.3	50.9%
2010	Jamaal Charles	16	14.2	90.8	0.3	4.0	2.8	29.3	0.2	17.8	44.7%
2011	Dexter McCluster	16	7.0	31.7	0.1	4.1	2.9	20.9	0.1	8.9	30.6%
2012	Jonathan Dwyer	13	12.1	48.3	0.2	1.9	1.4	8.2	0.0	8.0	38.9%
2013	Le'Veon Bell	13	18.6	65.7	0.6	5.0	3.4	31.4	0.0	16.8	66.7%
2014	Le'Veon Bell	16	18.1	85.1	0.5	6.6	5.2	53.4	0.2	23.2	78.4%
2015	DeAngelo Williams	16	12.5	56.8	0.7	2.9	2.5	22.9	0.0	14.6	59.3%
2016	Le'Veon Bell	12	21.8	105.5	0.6	7.8	6.3	51.3	0.2	26.4	71.4%
2017	Le'Veon Bell	15	21.4	86.0	0.6	7.0	5.7	43.7	0.1	23.0	85.1%

Year	Team	Att	Yds	TD	Tgt	Rec	Yds	TD	PPR	Team Touch%
2007	Cardinals	24.4	98.4	0.6	6.8	5.4	41.5	0.1	23.9	57.5%
2008	Cardinals	23.5	104.6	0.7	7.8	6.0	47.9	0.3	26.9	51.5%
2009	Chiefs	21.2	95.9	0.9	4.9	4.1	32.4	0.0	22.6	63.0%
2010	Chiefs	23.4	105.2	0.6	8.1	6.4	59.6	0.2	27.7	74.5%
2011	Chiefs	22.1	78.9	0.5	6.8	4.7	37.6	0.1	19.7	66.8%
2012	Steelers	23.3	86.9	0.5	6.9	4.9	39.2	0.1	20.9	59.0%
2013	Steelers	27.4	107.3	0.3	7.1	5.0	33.5	0.2	21.7	56.3%
2014	Steelers	32.1	154.4	0.8	8.8	5.9	54.6	0.3	32.8	57.8%
2015	Steelers	23.4	102.8	0.5	6.8	4.8	34.1	0.1	22.2	52.1%
2016	Steelers	22.4	100.7	0.7	7.6	5.8	45.9	0.3	21.4	60.5%
2017	Steelers	22.8	84.6	0.5	6.6	4.1	32.5	0.1	19.1	58.4%

Even with a primary focus on the pass, Haley’s backfields have put up respectable touch numbers relative to the rest of the league. His offenses have ranked in the top 10 in team running back touches five times, aided largely by usage in the passing game, with his backfields ranking in the bottom half of the league in running back targets just twice. While much of this workload can be attributed to players such as Le'Veon Bell and Jamaal Charles on the rosters, Haley’s 2011 Chiefs ranked fourth in running back touches without a clear workhorse.

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Haley’s Pass-Catchers

Year	Player	G	Tgt	Rec	Yds	TD	PPR	Tgt%
2007	Larry Fitzgerald	15	11.1	6.7	94.1	0.7	20.1	28.6%
2008	Larry Fitzgerald	16	9.6	6.0	89.6	0.8	19.5	24.9%
2009	Dwayne Bowe	16	5.4	2.9	36.8	0.3	8.1	16.8%
2010	Dwayne Bowe	16	8.2	4.4	72.3	0.9	16.9	29.0%
2011	Dwayne Bowe	11	12.9	7.4	105.4	0.5	20.7	28.7%
2012	Mike Wallace	15	7.8	4.1	55.4	0.5	12.9	20.9%
2013	Antonio Brown	16	10.4	6.9	93.6	0.5	19.4	29.2%
2014	Antonio Brown	16	11.3	8.1	106.1	0.8	23.9	30.5%
2015	Antonio Brown	16	12.1	8.5	114.6	0.6	23.9	33.3%
2016	Antonio Brown	15	10.2	7.1	85.6	0.8	20.5	26.5%
2017	Antonio Brown	14	11.6	7.2	109.5	0.6	22.0	28.2%

Year	Player	G	Tgt	Rec	Yds	TD	PPR	Tgt%
2007	Anquan Boldin	12	8.3	5.9	71.2	0.8	17.7	17.0%
2008	Anquan Boldin	12	10.5	7.4	86.5	0.9	22.1	20.4%
2009	Bobby Wade	12	6.3	3.1	30.6	1.4	7.2	14.5%
2010	Tony Moeaki	15	4.9	3.1	37.1	0.2	8.0	16.2%
2011	Steve Breaston	16	6.1	3.8	49.1	0.1	9.6	19.8%
2012	Antonio Brown	13	8.2	5.1	60.5	0.4	13.5	18.9%
2013	Emmanuel Sanders	16	6.9	4.2	45.5	0.4	11.1	19.4%
2014	Heath Miller	16	5.7	4.1	47.6	0.2	10.0	15.3%
2015	Martavis Bryant	11	8.4	4.5	69.5	0.5	15.7	15.9%
2016	Jesse James	16	3.8	2.4	21.1	0.2	5.7	10.4%
2017	Martavis Bryant	15	5.5	3.3	40.2	0.2	8.7	14.3%

*The Secondary Receiver table does not include running backs.

The top of Haley’s receiver depth charts has been dominated by some of the best receivers of this generation, namely Antonio Brown and Larry Fitzgerald. With that kind of talent, it should be expected that Haley has had a player account for at least a quarter of his team’s targets in every season but two. Maybe the most glaring tell from Haley’s list of pass-catchers is the players who don’t show up at the top of the target list—tight ends. A tight end has accounted for more than 15% of his team targets just twice under Haley, and only one tight end has ranked second on his team in target share. Surely, talented receivers and pass-catching backs have contributed to this lack of tight end work, but Haley clearly hasn’t gone out of his way to feature the position.

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What It All Means For the Browns in 2018

Haley’s coaching history evokes a playcaller who prefers to throw the ball as much as possible. While talent has certainly contributed to Haley’s pass/run splits, he’s shown that he is sensitive to game script, and the Browns figure to be in negative game script more often than not. Cleveland’s 5.5 projected wins is the lowest Vegas win total in the league. 

Quarterback

Haley will inherit his most unique quarterback situation as a playcaller this year in Cleveland, not just because fans will want rookie Baker Mayfield on the field as soon as possible, but because Haley hasn’t previously been in charge of a mobile quarterback like Tyrod Taylor. Matt Cassel’s 41 rush attempts in 2009 are the most by any of Haley’s quarterbacks over the last 11 years. Meanwhile, Taylor has averaged 94 rushes over the last three years, and Mayfield averaged over 100 rushing attempts per season in college. If Haley’s offense isn’t as pass-heavy as expected, it will be because his quarterbacks are pulling it down and scrambling. 

Over the last 10 seasons, 27 quarterbacks have run at least 75 times in a season and just five of them have attempted more than 500 passes, a number that 13 quarterbacks reached in 2017. While neither Taylor nor Mayfield figure to be fantasy studs in 2018, their potential volume—or lack thereof—directly impacts the upside of their pass-catchers. 

Running Backs

Earlier in the offseason, I explained why I think Duke Johnson is the best value in this backfield. In that article, I noted that Haley’s 2011 Chiefs were the only team in the last decade with three running backs that accounted for at least 30 percent of the backfield work—a backfield that closely resembles the one he has this year.

With negative game flow concerns and two quarterbacks who will run a lot themselves, Carlos Hyde and Nick Chubb will be sharing a role that doesn’t figure to provide many carries. As the better pass-catcher, expect Hyde to edge out Chubb for early-down work, but it’s Johnson’s versatility in the passing game that could lead to the most snaps among these three backs. As mentioned in Haley’s running back history, he’s a coach who has historically used passes to inflate his backfields’ workloads.

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Receivers

Haley has usually had a clear number one target in his offense, but this team should have a relatively even target distribution, especially among the top three targets, Jarvis Landry, Josh Gordon and Johnson. Landry figures to lead the way in targets as the primary slot receiver, but there is some concern with Taylor starting the season under center. Since becoming a starter in 2015, Taylor has thrown over the middle just 16.8% of the time, the lowest rate in the league over that span. Of course, Taylor has had little in the way of a dominant slot man or tight end, but it’s a data point worth noting. 

On the flip side, Taylor’s 21.2% deep ball rate ranks seventh among quarterbacks over the last three seasons and that matches well with Gordon’s strength—only four receivers with at least 40 targets had a higher average depth of target (15.7) than Gordon in 2017. Gordon may not amass huge target numbers, but he’s capable of topping 1,000 yards with 100 or so targets, and his ceiling games will be week-winners. 

While the Browns spent first-round draft capital on tight end David Njoku just a season ago, Haley’s history with tight ends, a pair of mobile quarterbacks, and three excellent pass-catchers ahead of him on the target totem pole adds up to an underwhelming outlook for the tight end.