Colts and Texans Locked in for Loaded Thursday Night Matchup

The AFC South is one of the NFL’s tightest divisions, and Week 12 kicks off with a matchup filled with playoff implications.

Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports

Unlike its reputation from years past, Thursday Night Football has produced some pretty compelling television at times this season. Those of us who didn’t change the channel in the final seconds of last week’s game saw unprecedented violence when Myles Garrett swung and hit Mason Rudolph in the head with his helmet. And this week, Indianapolis travels to Houston for an AFC South game between two teams who are in what feels like a dead heat for the top spot.

With twin 6-4 records, the Colts and Texans have been trading first place in the division back and forth all season, making this divisional race the closest in the league. Indianapolis currently has the head-to-head advantage with a 30-23 home win over Houston in Week 7, the first time the teams met this season, and a second Texans loss to their divisional opponents could deal a significant blow to their title hopes.

Indianapolis and Houston are coming off two very different Week 11 games. The Colts dominated the Jaguars 33-13, retaking the division lead, while the Texans struggled against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, losing 41-7. It was Houston QB Deshaun Watson’s worst game of the season, as he was sacked six times, losing a fumble on one, and threw an interception. 

Colts top receiver T.Y. Hilton has missed three consecutive games with an injured calf; he’s listed as questionable for Thursday night, but the team estimated he would have practiced in full on Wednesday if it hadn’t been a short week. If Hilton plays, which is possible, it doesn’t bode well for Houston, who already has a banged-up secondary as it is. Rookie cornerback Lonnie Johnson, safety Justin Reid and safety Mike Adams have already been declared out, and cornerback Bradley Roby will be a game-time decision.

And when Hilton plays Houston, he typically puts up big numbers. In 15 career games against the Texans, he has 82 receptions, 1,519 yards and 10 TD catches.

Not to mention this Texans team is really feeling the absence of defensive end J.J. Watt. In the three games since Watt’s season-ending injury, Houston’s defense has given up 408.3 yards per game, in part because they’ve struggled to generate a pass rush.

The winner of this game will put themselves in a more secure position atop the AFC South. Per PFF’s statistical model, if Houston wins, they will have a 71% chance to win the division. If the Colts win, they’ll have a 76% chance to take the division.

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