Divisional NFL DFS: Mahomes Is Where the Heart Is

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(Editor's note: This is a preview of Steve Renner's weekly DFS article from FullTime DFS.)

Patrick Mahomes is as good as ever. He "regressed" only in the context of stat projections purposes but not in his overall play. The Kansas City Chiefs over the second half of the season were quietly one of the best all-around teams. 

They draw a Houston opponent who beat them early in the regular season 31-24 and should present another tough spot but I trust the Chiefs not only to roll this weekend but win next week and be representing the AFC in Miami at the Super Bowl.

So how do they beat Houston? Through Mahomes. Plain and simple. In their prior game this season, Mahomes was just 19-for-35. The Texans dominated with 35 first downs to Kansas City’s 20. It’s a very basic statistic but if that stat is anywhere back to normal in this game then the Chiefs should absolutely roll because I don’t see Houston’s defense holding up long enough to stop them and if the Chiefs D continues to play as they have lately and get off the field on third down then we’re gonna see a ton of opportunities for Mahomes to shine.

Houston has no answer for Tyreek Hill and he scored twice in the regular season but look to take a gamble on one of the secondary players for the Chiefs because I suspect Mahomes accounts for 4+ touchdowns with a strong chance of going for 5+ and if that happens then Demarcus Robinson, Mecole Hardman or Sammy Watkins. There’s no clear indication as to any one of these guys being the better play over another as all are seeing similar snap shares and relatively low target shares as arguably the #4 option in the passing game behind Kelce, Hill, RB — but for DFS this week adding one of them to your Chiefs stack will be the difference.

AMBUSH PLAY: Mahomes hangs 4+ TDs vs. Houston! 

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