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Why You Should Bet on Patrick Mahomes to Win 2020 NFL MVP

Patrick Mahomes took home the NFL MVP award in 2018. Can he do it again in 2020? Here's why bettors should take a shot on Mahomes in the futures market.

Frankie Taddeo

What are the oddsmakers saying?

William Hill, America’s largest sports book operator, recently released its opening odds on which player will bring home the NFL MVP award next season. At +350, Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl-winning quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to win his second MVP award in the past three seasons.

Mahomes leads a field that consists of quarterbacks in the first 10 betting options before New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley appears at No. 11 at odds of 30/1. Mahomes is followed by Baltimore’s reigning regular season MVP Lamar Jackson at odds of 6/1. Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (8/1), Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson (14/1) and new Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (16/1) round out the top five overall betting choices.

What lies ahead for Mahomes?

The NFL has not witnessed a repeat MVP winner since Peyton Manning took home the award in consecutive years back in 2008-09. In the 1990s, Brett Favre won consecutive MVPs in 1995-96 before sharing co-honors with Barry Sanders in 1997. Brady, a three-time winner of the prestigious hardware, could become the first player to win the MVP in three different decades if he is able to win it at any point as a member of the Buccaneers.

During his magical MVP run in 2018, Mahomes passed for an eye-popping 5,097 yards with 50 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He led the league with an astounding 82.0 QBR after only appearing in 17 games under center in the NFL. As it turns out, it was just an appetizer for fans around the league for more even more prestigious accolades.

Mahomes has captivated the hearts and pockets of NFL bettors, as well as those of fantasy football owners, with his ability to make no-look throws from any angle and point on the field. His accuracy and playmaking ability to extend plays with his legs outside of the pocket has become nearly legendary overnight.

Mahomes lost out on back-to-back MVP awards thanks to not only an amazing season by Jackson, but also due to injury.

The former Texas Tech standout had a down year in the 2019 regular season when compared to his incredible 2018 season. The world witnessed the star signal caller suffer a dislocated kneecap before a national audience on Thursday Night Football in Week 7. Although he saw a significant drop by his own lofty standards, he still finished the season with 4,031 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and five interceptions, enabling Kansas City to capture the AFC West title and achieve a much-needed first-round bye in the playoffs.

Once the postseason kicked off, Mahomes took his game to another level. In the AFC Divisional Round, the Chiefs spotted the Texans a 24-point lead, only to set up the third-year pro to mount one the biggest comebacks in playoff history. Displaying poise beyond his years, Mahomes broke the spirit of the Texans with 41 unanswered points, which saw him fill up the stat sheet with 321 passing yards and five touchdowns. In the AFC Championship, Mahomes put his legs on display with a jaw-dropping 27-yard touchdown run down the near sideline, overpowering the Titans defense:

As we all know, the heralded quarterback put the Chiefs on his back in the second half of Super Bowl LIV, leading Kansas City to a come-from-behind win over the San Francisco 49ers.

What can we expect in 2020?

It’s not difficult to monetarily back Mahomes winning his second MVP award. He plays in perhaps the most dominant offense in the NFL that’s going to throw the ball a ton. He’s the best quarterback in the league and will be surrounded by a ton of weapons once again in 2020, including dynamic wideout Tyreek Hill and superstar tight end Travis Kelce.

The NFL is one of the few leagues in the middle of its normally scheduled offseason. While the world is being asked to self-quarantine amid the coronavirus outbreak, that isn't forcing Mahomes to lose the drive to repeat. He recently took to Instagram to post that he is far from being satisfied with his first Super Bowl ring, taking part in extreme workout routines.

It has not taken Mahomes long to reach the most coveted QB1 status among fantasy football players over in the Fantasy Football World Championships. The celebrated Chief recently took to Twitter to joke he’d get cut over Johnny Manziel, Vince Young, based on high school and college careers.

Pay no attention to that social media noise. If his first two seasons are any indication, we are witnessing perhaps the greatest quarterback talent this league has ever seen.

2020 Schedule:

HOME: Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans

AWAY: Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins, New Orleans Saints,Las Vegas Raiders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Depending on how the NFL schedule-makers list the order of the Chiefs’ 2020 opponents, it wouldn’t surprise me to see his odds of +350 drop significantly in the first month of the season. Picture this scenario: Weeks 1-4 could consist of the Dolphins (494), Panthers (470), Buccaneers (449), Raiders (419) and/or Falcons (399), who all finished among the 10-worst teams in points allowed in 2019. The numbers a healthy Mahomes could put up from an individual standpoint as he takes even more control in Andy Reid’s offense not only make him my overall QB1 in fantasy football, but also make him the player to bet in MVP futures.

Betting Advice:

Invest in Mahomes now and grab these odds before the value on a possible payout continues to lower. 

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2020 NFL Mock Draft: Fantasy Football Implications

AFC West Win Total: How many games do Chiefs win?

2020 NFL Draft Prop Bet: Which Safety Will Be Drafted First?

2020 NFL Draft: How Many QBs Go in Round 1?

NFL Draft 2020: Which Running Back Gets Drafted First?

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Frankie Taddeo
FRANKIE TADDEO

Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frankie primarily performs as Sports Illustrated's Senior Betting Analyst providing his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. 

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