Dark-Horse Candidates for 2020 NFL Awards

Midway through the season, who are some outside candidates who could still sneak into position for major NFL awards?

At this point midway through the season, we typically think we know everything. The pace of the year has been established, the frontrunners are controlling the rest of the pack and the stars, both on the field and sideline, have helped solidify nine weeks of groupthink.

On Wednesday, The MMQB released our midseason award projections based on the first-half sample size, with very little diversity among those receiving votes. See for yourself…

• MVP: Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes
• OPOY: Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Patrick Mahomes
• DPOY: Aaron Donald, T.J. Watt, Myles Garrett
• OROY: Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa
• DROY: Chase Young
• Comeback: Alex Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, Jason Verrett
• Coach: Brian Flores, Mike Tomlin

But there is beauty in the unknown. It’s safe to say that at least one of these categories will yield a surprise. At the very least, there are certainly some coaches and players who have performed well enough to earn an outside candidacy. That’s why we’re here today, to broaden the pool a bit and discuss some of the dark horses who have also helped bring us to this point in 2020.

Without further ado…

JAMIE GERMANO/ROCHESTER DEMOCRAT AND CHRONICLE via Imagn Content Services, LLC (Allen); Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports (Murray)

MVP 

Josh Allen, quarterback, Buffalo Bills

Because the MVP award is almost exclusively a quarterback award, we would do well to mention the guys most aggressively nipping at the heels of obvious frontrunners Mahomes, Rodgers and Wilson. Allen’s games are more theatrical, as we know, but it wouldn’t be outrageous to suggest that the quarterback of a 7–2 division-leading team who is currently sixth in total quarterback rating and seventh in Defense-adjusted Value Above Average could chisel away at the distance over the second half of the season. Allen’s transformation has been an incredible exercise in scheme fit and what happens when the perfect amount of a complementary offense is handed over to the quarterback over time. Giving him the MVP award, of course, would be more of a reflection of how far Allen has come personally as opposed to how high he has lifted the Bills individually, though, again, so much could change over the second half of the season (not to mention the optics of a productive, young quarterback taking over a division that had forever belonged to Tom Brady).

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

Murray, too, is deserving of consideration. The Cardinals quarterback is 12th in passing and fifth in rushing yards, meaning that he is roughly as productive as Deshaun Watson and Ezekiel Elliott combined. His mastery of Kliff Kingsbury’s offense is something to behold, and Murray continues to get more comfortable at the NFL level every week. Murray is tied for fourth in completion percentage over expectation (NextGenStats) and is on pace to take fewer than half of the sacks he did last year despite being hurried in the pocket at roughly the same rate. The Cardinals are in a bit of divisional purgatory right now, especially after their loss to the Dolphins, but with a slew of season-defining games coming down the pike (Bills, at Seahawks and two games against the Rams) there is plenty of time to improve his candidacy.

Murray, so far this season, is worth about 430 yards over a common replacement player for Arizona, compared to Lamar Jackson (111) or Drew Brees (287.1), Ryan Tannehill (341.17) or Jared Goff (93.52) to name a few random, highly thought of quarterbacks. While Football Outsiders contextualizes this number in their Defensive Yards Above Replacement stat, which puts Murray further down the list behind the likes of Tannehill, Teddy Bridgewater, Tom Brady and Matt Ryan, the MVP award is, at its core, about a singular player’s value to a team. I would imagine that the Buccaneers would still be good with a serviceable to moderately good quarterback. The same could be said about the Panthers, the Raiders and maybe even the Saints this year (all players who are ahead of Murray on the DYAR rankings). I would also imagine that the Cardinals would see a much bigger drop in efficiency without Murray compared to those other names, should they miss time.

OPOY 

Davante Adams, wide receiver, Green Bay Packers

Maybe Aaron Rodgers’s identification of wide receiver as a weakness will help spotlight how spectacular Davante Adams has been this year. Adams is eighth in the NFL in receiving despite having played three fewer games than the league leader. The Packers are almost a yard-and-a-half better per play when Adams is on the field, and that extends beyond passing plays. Rushes are also better when Adams is on the field. At the moment he’s hauling down about 30% of the team’s targeted air yards and, despite Rodgers’s desire for another wide receiver, is gaining about three yards of separation per snap, which is above the league average. When you have a QB with pinpoint accuracy, what more do you need than a window the size of a small outdoor garden?

D.K. Metcalf, wide receiver, Seattle Seahawks

While Russell Wilson is cooking—and doing a fine job—one would be remiss not to credit Metcalf in part with Wilson’s rise. Metcalf has turned into a matchup nightmare who is dropping only 4% of his passes. Wilson has a passer rating above 120 when targeting Metcalf and, as a bonus, Metcalf has nearly eclipsed his Yards After Catch mark from 2019 through eight games this season.

Stefon Diggs, wide receiver, Buffalo Bills

I'm putting this here because I was flat out wrong about the Diggs acquisition in Buffalo and it's time to make amends. On the surface, this looked like a ball-hungry wide receiver headed to a place where a developing young quarterback in a bad weather stadium was not prepared to pacify him. That couldn’t have been further from the truth. Diggs leads the NFL in receiving yards, is tied for the most big plays for a wide receiver and has generated nearly 30 first downs through half a season.

Andrew Whitworth, left tackle, Los Angeles Rams
Duane Brown, left tackle, Seattle Seahawks
Corey Linsley, center, Green Bay Packers
Ali Marpet, guard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Give offensive linemen some credit once in a while!

DPOY

Budda Baker, safety, Arizona Cardinals

Baker is good in every facet of the game for Arizona. While the pass rush numbers are not mind blowing, his ability to impact defenses from different parts of the field has made a huge difference for Vance Joseph’s defense, which deserves more credit for the top-10 unit it has become in 2020. Baker, who splits time between both safety spots but also has nearly 100 slot snaps, is surrendering a career-low seven yards per target. He’s also tied his career-high sack total (two) through just seven games in 2020.

Lavonte David, linebacker, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

At 30, David may be having one of his finest seasons. He and Devin White are the nerve center of one of the league’s best defenses and David’s rangy ability can shut down a lot of mismatches that quarterbacks rely on to get easy completions. David is down to allowing less than four yards per target, which is a career low (Pro Football Focus lists him as the No. 2 coverage linebacker in the league this year, though No. 1, Jarrad Davis, has only played 75 passing snaps this year). He’s also missing just 5% of his tackles despite being on pace for another 120-tackle season. White and David are both 393 yards above average on defense this season. The Buccaneers defense, Saints blowout notwithstanding, deserves representation on the Defensive Player of the Year leaderboard despite the lack of an individual statistical leader. David is a solid candidate in that way.

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OROY

Justin Jefferson, wide receiver, Minnesota Vikings

I will give away all of my most valuable possessions (mostly Pokemon cards) if a quarterback doesn’t win this award. The late emergence of Tua Tagovailoa turns this into a two-horse race with an intriguing third player chasing from a solid distance. That said, Justin Jefferson is one of Minnesota’s most valuable offensive players this year. His emergence has coincided with the Vikings’ awakening from the depths of the NFC North. Jefferson is averaging nearly 80 yards a game, elevating Minnesota’s passing offense by almost a half a yard per play just by being on the field. Another interesting tidbit: Jefferson has the third-highest catch rate above expectation among NFL wide receivers this year, behind Terry McLaurin and A.J. Brown. That is a tremendous boost for Kirk Cousins—Cousins has a passer rating over 100 when targeting Jefferson—as is his lone, singular drop this season.

DROY

This is an interesting spot to highlight what has been an interesting first year for three of the four first-round cornerbacks selected in 2020. After a dominant Week 1, it appeared C.J. Henderson was a lock in this space. A.J. Terrell has also come on at various points in the season. However, neither Terrell, Henderon or Jeff Okudah in Detroit has an opposing QB passer rating below 100—in fact, Ravens linebacker Patrick Queen, who has been targeted a formidable 34 times already this season, has a better opposing QB completion percentage than all of them. Like Offensive Rookie of the Year, there aren’t a ton of good secondary candidates here. Unlike OROY, there is only one frontrunner. Chase Young, should he keep up the pace over the second half of the season, should be a shoo-in here.

Comeback

Garrett Bolles, tackle, Denver Broncos

The much-maligned first-round pick comes into the midseason as Pro Football Focus’s sixth-best pass blocker and second-best run blocker. Bolles hasn’t missed a snap this year and is down to three total penalties, which is a fantastic reduction from his 2018 and 2019 seasons, in which he logged 10 apiece. He has not allowed a sack in 2020.

Obviously, this is not an award that anyone wants to take away from Alex Smith, unless you’re Gary Gramling, who voted for Jason Verrett. Gary also hates Rudy and rooted for the CCCP in Miracle. However, I think Bolles is developing and deserves some shine.

Coach

Matt Rhule, Carolina Panthers
Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills

Again, it’s going to take the jaws of life to rip this award away from either Mike Tomlin or Brian Flores, but keep an eye on what’s happening in both Carolina and Buffalo. McDermott has his team playing well above its Pythagorean win-loss expectations so far (about three games better). Rhule, meanwhile, has been hanging tough in games that he has no business hanging in and his brilliant offensive staff has created some serious star power on offense where it did not exist (or was not appreciated) in the past.