NFL Black Monday Tracker and Analysis: Breaking Down Head Coach and GM Changes
Phase two of the NFL season begins for 14 teams Monday morning, while all the teams that missed the postseason are now freed up to regroup in the hopes of a better 2021. This season has been strange in that a higher volume of teams opted to move on from their head coaches during the season (there were three interim coaches on NFL sidelines in Week 17), while other teams gave their obviously-wavering head coaches more time to twist in the wind (the Chargers, Jaguars and Jets come to mind) instead of getting a leg up on the search like their counterparts.
Below, we’ll break down all of the staff changes on what continues to be one of the more grimace-worthy days in all of sports. Yes, an exciting new era of football is on tap for nearly a quarter of the NFL’s teams, but that also means hundreds of support staff shuffling off to their next destination in the coaching profession’s nomadic slog. It’s the one part of all this we rarely consider fully enough when talking about one person’s name on a “hot seat” or a list of candidates to replace them.
That said, let’s get on to the news of the day. Here is the who, what, where, when and why of the 2021 coaching carousel. (And keep in mind that last month I laid out some of the top candidates available to fill these openings.)
We will update this post as more news comes out.
Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports
CHANGES AFTER WEEK 17
• Los Angeles Chargers (head coach)
Anthony Lynn was relieved of his duties Monday after four seasons in Los Angeles and a 33-31 record. The Chargers made one playoff appearance in that time. Lynn seemed to regain control of the wheel at season’s end in 2020, though four straight wins to end the season was not enough to convince ownership that he should remain. What Lynn does well may have ultimately been his downfall. The Chargers hit on identifying Justin Herbert, who broke rookie passing records in 2020. However, when that happens there is often pressure on maximizing the talent and an unwarranted panic about stagnation. Thus, many coaches (Todd Bowles and his similar experience with Sam Darnold comes to mind) face an uphill climb if they do not win right away with star rookie QBs. Expect the Chargers to pour their resources into another offensive-minded coach who can ensure Herbert’s developmental trajectory continues on the upward path carved by Lynn and QB coach Pep Hamilton.
• Jacksonville Jaguars (head coach and GM)
The Jacksonville Jaguars parted ways with general manager Dave Caldwell during the season and head coach Doug Marrone on Monday following the season’s end. Marrone brought the team to the AFC Championship game back in 2018, and the Jags were just a few plays (and whiffed calls?) from reaching the Super Bowl. There was a hope internally that Marrone would turn things around and an appreciation for the fact that Jacksonville did hang tough during a season where it needed to shed a lot of veteran contracts. The issue now is that the Jaguars have the No. 1 pick and a chance to work with Trevor Lawrence, which means the field will be big-footed by coaches with more cache (read: Urban Meyer dominating the early conversation). It’s likely that Jacksonville will feel pressured to land a star commensurate with the quarterback it will be selecting No. 1 overall.
• Jets (head coach)
The Jets officially announced Adam Gase’s dismissal on Sunday night, following the team’s season-ending loss to the Patriots. Gase was 9–23 over two years at the helm. While the Gase hire was unpopular locally, he came to New York with the reputation of someone who could get teams to play hard, which was perfect for a middling roster that was threadbare at most key positions. Each year he was head coach of the Dolphins, the club outperformed its Pythagorean win-loss expectation, despite having only one postseason berth (and winning season) in four years. However, in New York, brief moments of excitement were counterbalanced with long stretches of noncompetitive football. Sam Darnold did not develop into the bona fide star many believed he would become. Most of the team’s star players found a way to happily wriggle off the roster to other destinations.
So it goes for a franchise that has not made the playoffs since 2010 during the Rex Ryan era (now the longest drought in the NFL). The Jets have struggled mightily to put together a combination of competent roster evaluator, creative head coach and adequate quarterback in some time. Though the Joe Douglas regime brings promise, it is a story many fans have heard before.
Expect the team’s new hire to be focused offensively, given the team’s most likely scenarios: drafting another quarterback at No. 2 or turning Darnold into a legitimate franchise quarterback before his rookie contract runs out. Panthers offensive coordinator Joe Brady, Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith might make some sense. On the flip side, Douglas’s time in Baltimore could elevate a name like Don Martindale, the Ravens’ defensive coordinator, who interviewed for the Giants’ opening last year.
More From Jets Country:
* Ten Coaches the Jets Could Hire to Replace Adam Gase
CHANGES DURING THE SEASON
• Detroit Lions (head coach and GM)
Patriot disciples Bob Quinn and Matt Patricia were both dismissed after an embarrassing Thanksgiving performance this year. Patricia had three losing seasons in Detroit, while Quinn dismissed Jim Caldwell following a 9–7 season to hire Patricia in the first place. Look for their tenure to pivot the coaching search in a different direction. A more engaging, CEO type of coach with experience or a long track record of success, or a burst-off-the-page personality will be front of mind. The Lions have already interviewed ESPN’s Louis Riddick, former Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff, former Chiefs GM Scott Pioli and former Texans GM Rick Smith for the GM vacancy, while former Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis recently interviewed for the head coaching vacancy. I would imagine 49ers defensive coordinator and Michigan native Robert Saleh will impress, and fits a lot of the criteria.
An interesting report from NFL Network suggests that the Lions may also attempt a complicated, high-profile poaching of Seahawks general manager John Schneider. While a GM’s player-selecting ability is often overrated (and is not that different from person to person in terms of success), Schneider is notorious for having one of the best eyes for talent in the league and has a tremendous hit rate among mid and late-round targets.
• Falcons (head coach and GM)
The Falcons dismissed both Dan Quinn and Thomas Dimitroff back on Oct. 11 and watched as interim candidate Raheem Morris built a strong case to remain in the head coaching role over the course of 11 games (the Falcons interviewed Morris officially for the job on New Year’s Day). Despite building a team that was a few bad decisions away from throttling the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl, Quinn and Dimitroff struggled to overcome that loss and returned to the playoffs just once in the four seasons that followed.
What’s interesting about this job is how it may have elevated Morris’s star power for other high-profile defensive coordinator jobs this offseason if he’s not retained. The Falcons have already interviewed former Texans GM Rick Smith and Falcons director of college scouting Anthony Robinson for the job. The Atlanta-Journal Constitution also heavily linked Saints assistant GM/pro personnel director Terry Fontenot to the GM opening.
Given Atlanta’s dwindling window to maximize the remaining athletic primes of Julio Jones and Matt Ryan, it would not be a surprise to see the head coaching search hyper-focused on offense. Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy could be a name to watch there.
• Houston Texans (head coach and GM)
Because Bill O’Brien was both the head coach and general manager, the Texans lopped off a significant portion of the football power structure when they dismissed O’Brien back in early October. This will be one of the most closely-watched head coaching vacancies in the NFL, given the looming questions about current interim GM and former Patriots character coach Jack Easterby, who, alongside a search firm, is helping to yank the strings down in Houston. You can read more about Easterby here.
Malik Boyd, the Bills’ pro personnel director, and Scott Cohen, the Ravens’ director of football research (a former Jets assistant GM), have both been linked to the GM opening by the Houston Chronicle. Matt Bazirgan, the Texans’ director of player personnel, has also interviewed for the job already.
Because this is a search firm-run operation, don’t be surprised to see both the head coaching and GM interviews focus heavily on people from traditionally successful franchises. For example, ESPN recently reported that Seahawks offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer was a name that has been bandied about early in the process.
