Mailbag: Who Will the Raiders Hire As Their Next Coach?

With Jon Gruden out of the picture, Las Vegas has a head start on looking at top candidates for 2022.

It’s been an eventful week in the NFL. And you had questions about all of it. Let’s dive in …

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From Max Hamilton (@agentmax07): Who are the Raiders looking at to bring in to coach them?

From Matt Ramas (@matt_ramas): Do you think Eric Bieniemy or Josh McDaniels will get any consideration for the Raiders HC job?

Max, Matt, thanks for the questions. This is going to be an interesting job for someone come January. In place, you have a decent core, with guys like Derek Carr, Maxx Crosby, Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs, Henry Ruggs III, Brian Edwards, Kolton Miller, Johnathan Abram and Tre’von Moehrig to build around. On top of that, the team has a full complement of picks—with its own slotted picks through four rounds and two in the fifth—and ranks in the top 10 in the NFL in cap space for 2022 right now.

Now, part of the attractiveness of this job may ride, for some, on the fate of GM Mike Mayock. But the cupboard isn’t bare, and this won’t require a total teardown.

I think you’d start with people that Raiders owner Mark Davis has a connection to, and along those lines Ravens defensive coordinator Wink Martindale would be one name to watch. He worked for four head coaches (Norv Turner, Art Shell, Lane Kiffin, Tom Cable) over five years in Oakland, from 2004 to ’08, and through that time he got close to late owner Al Davis, who’d always worked with the defensive guys. Martindale was linebackers coach for the Raiders’ last top-10 defense, and having a defensive guy might make sense in an AFC West populated by Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert.

After that, I think you need to look at the Davis family legacy. For their faults, the Raiders hired the league’s first woman CEO (Amy Trask), its first Black head coach (Art Shell) and its first Super Bowl–winning coach of color (Tom Flores). The Raiders were also out front on social justice initiatives the last few years, and Mark Davis was one of just two owners (joining the 49ers’ Jed York) in abstaining to vote for the ill-fated anthem policy in 2018.

And not just for those reasons, I think Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris shapes up as a strong candidate that could help give the Raiders some stability. He worked six seasons over two stints for Jon Gruden in Tampa Bay, and his knowledge of Gruden’s program would help him hit the ground running at a tumultuous time for the franchise. And his connections would help him build a good staff (current Raiders offensive coordinator Greg Olson was Morris’s O.C. in Tampa after Morris took over for Gruden there).

I’d agree that Bieniemy and McDaniels should also be in the mix, Matt. To me, the one silver lining here is that, if you’re Davis, you now have three months to do all your background work and get your ducks in a row for when the hiring comes in January.

From Midnight Writer (@fullmoonscribe): The Lions have been severely decimated by season-ending injuries to many of their top players. Though they play hard for Dan Campbell and appear well-coached, can they avoid going winless?

Midnight, yes. Losing center Frank Ragnow was a serious blow for a team that can’t afford many more of them (it’s got 13 players on injured reserve now). But I don’t see the Lions as the kind of team that would be in danger of losing every game—mostly because those teams (like the 2008 Lions and ’17 Browns) are generally nearing the end with a coach and decline toward the end of the year.

My guess would be Detroit will go the other way when we get into the back half of the season, with young guys like Penei Sewell, Alim McNeill, D’Andre Swift and Jonah Jackson playing vital roles, and experienced pros like Jared Goff, Trey Flowers and Taylor Decker around to help them along.

The other thing is that what’s happened the last few weeks actually might be ideal for the team in the long run, even if no one can say it. The team is playing its tail off for Campbell, and, as the losses mount, I’d imagine they’ll get a window into who certain guys are from a makeup standpoint. Also, having a high pick next year won’t hurt, even if there’s not a quarterback worthy of going that high (it looks like there might not be).

From Justa Notherguy (@CjCohan): Looking into the future, who are the Bills’ biggest challenges for the rest of the season? I don’t want to sound biased but really look at the schedule. I think the AFC goes through Buffalo in January and February. If we stay healthy and our D continues, do you think AFC SB contender?

Justa, since I picked the Bills to win the AFC before the year, I’d say, yes, I think the Bills are a legitimate AFC Super Bowl contender. And looking at the schedule, it looks like they could be 10–1 going into December, and that 15–2 or 14–3 (because you assume they’ll slip up somewhere along the line) is a fair expectation. That would likely set up multiple home playoff games as either the No. 1 or 2 seed.

And yup, January in Orchard Park would be no good for the away team.

You’re also right to point out the sustainability of the defense’s early-season surge being a factor going forward. Buffalo marked pass rush as its primary issue coming out of 2020, and by drafting Greg Rousseau and Boogie Basham, continuing to develop guys like A.J. Epenesa and bringing back Star Lotulelei, the defense looks complete now. The Bills currently rank fifth in the league in sack percentage. If they keep up that part of their game, I think they’ll be headed for Los Angeles in February.

From Sammy (@SammyWFTFAN): Is Washington going to be looking to draft a QB in the upcoming draft?

Sammy, I’d certainly say it’s on the table—but this offseason does figure to be a little different for quarterback-needy teams. Oklahoma’s Spencer Rattler and North Carolina’s Sam Howell came into the season with a shot to play their way into the first round of April’s draft. That hasn’t happened. So now teams could be looking at guys like Liberty’s Malik Willis, Nevada’s Carson Strong and Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder as the top 2022 QBs.

It's been 25 years since the first round went by without a quarterback taken—in 1996, 42nd pick Tony Banks was the first one taken—and I’m not suggesting that’ll happen this year. But I do think this might be the sort of buyer-beware year like 2013 or ’19, when we had quarterbacks pushed up the board because there weren’t enough first-round-worthy prospects to satisfy leaguewide demand.

Based on how Washington has operated under Ron Rivera, I actually don’t think it’s as prone to reaching for one as other teams might be. Which is why I see them more likely to dive into a veteran market that could include Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers. It’s what they tried to do last year, when they offered Detroit the 19th pick and a third-rounder for Matthew Stafford.

So yes, they’ll look. But no, I wouldn’t bank on their taking one.

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From Richard Ito (@rich_ito): How likely is it that Urban Meyer is coaching the Jaguars next season?

From Joe Morgan (@joe_morgan): What's Urban's future in Jacksonville beyond this year?

Richard and Joe, I understand the thought that Meyer’s eyeing the exit. There are two reasons why I think that it won’t happen.

The first is Jaguars owner Shad Khan’s investment in Meyer. The ex–Ohio State and -Florida coach was looking for some promises before taking the job in Jacksonville and making his first leap to the NFL. One, he wanted a budget to bring in his people and pay them well, and with it he built the biggest coaching staff in the NFL and changed almost everything about the way the Jaguars handle performance training and sport science. Two, he wanted a first-class practice facility—and Khan’s now building a $120 million football complex.

The second reason I don’t think he’ll bolt is his own personal pride. Meyer’s the rare football coach who’s never been fired at any level (though he was a grad assistant on the Earle Bruce staff at Ohio State that was let go after the 1987 season). He’s won three national titles at two schools, led three schools to premier bowl games and won at four schools. He left college football with 187–32 career record, and the last time he was part of so much as a sub-.500 season was as Notre Dame’s receivers coach in ’99.

I just have a hard time seeing Meyer walking away having failed. Remember, when he left Ohio State and Florida, he left having won at the highest level. Leaving Jacksonville after one year would be different. Now, if he senses he’s lost the locker room, I could see it happening. Or of course there’s the chance that Khan will move on, if things don’t get better.

But as of right now, I’m not going to tell you he won’t be there in 2022.

From Moose Block (@moose_block): Any chance the Dolphins try and get Deshaun Watson before the trade deadline?

Moose! I think there is a chance, yes. But I don’t think it’ll happen. I could be wrong.

The reality is not much has changed on the Texans’ stance on moving Watson. GM Nick Caserio’s treating it as the sort of thing that could define his time in Houston, and he’s right to handle it that way. So he’s not taking less than full price for Watson now, and I don’t know exactly what would move him off that spot between now and Dec. 2. For one, he can’t use any picks coming his way before April, anyway. And two, by putting Watson on a team like the Dolphins, he’d be devaluing those picks by making the trading team better (if Watson plays this season; it’s still unclear if the league would put him on the exempt list). Though in the Dolphins’ case, they own the 49ers’ first-round pick but not their own, thanks to a couple of deals that also included the Eagles.

As for the other part of it, Miami’s facing a critical time at quarterback, no doubt. Clearly, there has to be some level of regret in passing on Justin Herbert to take Tua Tagovailoa with the fifth pick 18 months ago. And beyond just that, the next 12 games should be important for Miami in determining whether it will move forward with Tagovailoa as starter the beyond 2021 or seek a way to level up at the most important position on the field.

Maybe that’s a little unfair to Tagovailoa, since most guys in his position are given three years to show what they have, if they show any promise at all, and especially if they came into the league coming off a serious injury as Tua did. But next year will be Year 4 for Brian Flores and Chris Grier in Miami, and if there’s lingering doubt over whether Tagovailoa’s the guy and they haven’t made the playoffs yet, then it’s incumbent on them to look at the Watsons, Wilsons and Rodgerses of the world.

Bottom line, if the Dolphins’ season keeps going as it has, the 2022 offseason’s going to be fascinating in Miami.

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From Brennan Cate (@NFLBrennan): Through 5 games, do you see any other Rookie of the Year true contenders aside from Ja’Marr Chase? Looks like the best odds are for Ja’Marr, Mac Jones and Justin Fields.

Brennan, Chase is absolutely the leader in the clubhouse now—on pace for a 78-catch, 1,550-yard, 17-touchdown season. That would eclipse what his old teammate and Vikings star Justin Jefferson did during his own record-breaking rookie year in terms of yardage and touchdowns (but not catches) last year. And this year, thus far, there hasn’t been an overwhelming rookie quarterback like there was last year in Herbert.

That’s where the shift could potentially happen, too. Quarterbacks are graded on a curve. So if the Patriots make the playoffs with Jones at the controls, Fields catches fire in Chicago or Trevor Lawrence digs Jacksonville out of its 0–5 ditch, there may wind up being nothing Chase can do to win the award, as was the case with Jefferson last year.

Is there another nonquarterback out there? Keep an eye on Steelers rookie Najee Harris. He’s had more than 20 touches the last three weeks in a row, and with Ben Roethlisberger’s being where he is in his career, the Steelers are almost certainly going to continue to lean on him. And if he helps them manage Roethlisberger a certain way, helps to highlight a really good defense and the Steelers get to January in contention, Harris would merit consideration.

Kyle Pitts would be the one other name to watch. After having 15 catches for 189 yards and no scores over his first four NFL games, he had nine catches for 119 yards and a touchdown in last week’s game in London. So maybe he’s turned a corner, and if so there’s no question he has the ability to play his way into the mix.

From Not who you think I am (@DonRidenour): With the Falcons going nowhere, do you think Mattie Ice is going to look for a new home either before the trade deadline or after the year?

Donnie! I think Matt Ryan will be on the team in 2022, in part because I’m not sure there’ll be a huge trade market for him, the Falcons would have to carry $40.5 million in dead cap next year (or over the next two years) to move on from him and even if they draft a quarterback in 2022, having Ryan around would be really good for the young guy.

The one thing that’d throw a wrench in that is if the Falcons decide to move on one of the veteran quarterbacks who might come available in the winter or spring. As you can tell, I’d expect another interesting offseason when it comes to the league’s quarterbacking landscape. And the idea that Atlanta might make a play for someone like Watson, who’s semi-local to that franchise, is at least interesting.

From Scottish Falcon (@ScottishFalcon): After the success of the London game, do you think there should be an NFL franchise in the city?

Falcon, I can say the NFL feels strongly that the London market has been developed to the point where a franchise could succeed there. Also, there’s an actual NFL stadium there, built to specifications for (American) football, thanks to the partnership with Tottenham Hotspur. And there’ve been plans discussed to have a London team use Atlanta as its U.S. base—with the Falcons’ building a new practice facility closer to downtown and handing their current home in Flowery Branch, an hour north of the city, to the London team.

The problems remain logistical, and maybe you could control those through a regular season. Doing it in the playoffs would be more difficult.

Would it be fair, for example, to force, say, the Chargers or Raiders to travel to London for a wild-card round game on a Saturday, then turn around and go somewhere else in the divisional round and play a team that was either at home, coming off a bye or had, say, an hour flight the week before? That’s what’s tough for the league to solve.

It’s one reason why the league was looking into advancements in air travel a few years back, to see if there’d be some sort of change that might help with these problems. But as long as they exist and create a competitive divide, I think it’s going to be tough to get a team there full-time—and what may be more realistic is having a team that splits its schedule between here and there.