As NFL Free Agency Turns: Breaking Down Aaron Rodgers’s Contract, Randy Gregory’s Flip and More

We do the math on the Green Bay quarterback’s new deal so you don’t have to.

With Day 2 of free agency (mostly) in the books…

I spent probably two hours looking at the Aaron Rodgers contract on Tuesday morning and came to two conclusions. One, the fact that I haven’t taken a math class since high school has had its effects. Two, the contract proves, once again, that you can make numbers say whatever you want. Here’s the broad strokes of the deal, for those who haven’t seen it yet:

• 2022: $1.15 million base, $40.8 million roster bonus.
• 2023: $59.465 million base.
• 2024: $49.25 million base.
• 2025: $15.85 million base, $5 million option bonus.
• 2026: $10 million base, $5 million option bonus.

The first two years are fully guaranteed, and the third is guaranteed for injury and vests to a full guarantee next year (meaning the first three years are all essentially guaranteed). So if you add it up, that’s $186.77 million over five years ($37.35 million per year), or, if you subtract what was existing and folded in, a four-year extension with $159.79 million in new money ($39.95 million per year). But … if you consider the final two years to be placeholders that he’ll never play on (likely), then this looks like a three-year, $150.815 million deal ($50.27 million per year), or a two-year extension with $123.84 million in new money ($61.9 million per year). And from there, I could get into the cap ramifications, and how the ’23 and ’24 base salaries convert into option bonuses. But instead, just trust me when I say this saves them a lot on the cap the next couple years but will make some year down the line pretty tough for them financially. Now let’s call it a night on all the arithmetic.

Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK

• I wouldn’t be overly worried about Davante Adams’s contract situation yet. He’s not the first franchise player to swear he won’t play on the tag, and most guys who wind up getting tagged-then-extended don’t get their new deals until close to the mid-July deadline. So making a big deal out of his situation now would be a little bit like getting worked up over what you’re getting for Christmas on Labor Day.

• The Giants’ decision to sign Tyrod Taylor is a sizable win for Daniel Jones. Had New York landed Mitchell Trubisky—and they made a run at him—there’s a chance that Trubisky might’ve unseated Jones at one point or another. Taylor, on the other hand, isn’t coming in trying to revive his stock as a starter. Bottom line, if Taylor’s playing, that’s a pretty bad sign for where Jones is. But clearly Jones is going to be given every chance to avoid that scenario.

• I’ve heard Randy Gregory’s about-face compared to tampering-period changes of heart of yesteryear (Frank Gore, Anthony Barr), and I’d say it’s really not the same. First of all, Gregory’s situation wasn’t about other players leaving the team he was going to (Gore) or simply wanting to be in one place over another (Barr). This involved an actual snag in negotiation, over forfeiture language, and Gregory wasn’t in the position Gore and Barr were—where those two couldn’t yet sign with the teams they’d agreed to terms with. He could’ve signed with Dallas if he’d wanted to. So in this particular case, the tampering window was actually kind of irrelevant.

• I wouldn’t assume the Texans just take a quarterback back in a trade for Deshaun Watson. In fact, my understanding is that last year, with the four teams that were involved (Miami, Carolina, Philly, Denver), the Texans had no plans to take one back, despite all four having a young player (Tua Tagovailoa, Sam Darnold, Jalen Hurts, Drew Lock) at the position. My sense is the Texans are happy with Davis Mills as their young quarterback for now and thus would probably prefer draft capital over a lot of the guys teams might want to throw into a trade for Watson.

• That complicates the asking price for Watson a little. We know it’ll be three first-round picks and then some—the Texans actually had an offer or two like that last year before the lawsuits were filed. And that’s a lot to begin with. But after that, if, say, the Browns or Panthers got him, then they’d have to find a taker for Baker Mayfield or Darnold (both are on fully-guaranteed $18.858 million options for 2022). And while that may be just a speed bump for you if you’re getting Watson, it’s one you’d have to navigate nonetheless.

• The Patriots didn’t offload Shaq Mason because he’s terrible. He can still play. They just thought he was starting to decline and saw his contract as one they could move to create a little breathing room under the cap. And the Buccaneers are the beneficiaries, flipping a fifth-round pick for Mason. They get him for $7.5 million this year and $8.5 million next year, which is markedly less than Alex Cappa, the man he’s replacing, will take home from the Bengals over the next two years ($20 million).

• That said, the Patriots are hemorrhaging linemen. They lost Ted Karras to Cincinnati on Monday, traded Mason on Tuesday, and stand to lose a third starter, Trent Brown, in free agency. On top of that, they’ve lost three line coaches (Dante Scarnecchia, Cole Popovich and Carmen Bricillo) the last three offseasons. Add the issues there to what New England’s dealing with at corner, sans J.C. Jackson, and Bill Belichick has a lot of work to do in two key areas over the next couple of months.

• Comp picks were awarded on Tuesday night, and the effects of the NFL’s efforts to diversify its head coach and GM ranks were felt. Two-thirds of the six third-round comp picks handed out were part of the league’s initiative to incentivize teams developing young coaches and scouts of color. Rewarded for such efforts this year were the Saints (Terry Fontenot), Niners (Robert Saleh, Mike McDaniel), Browns (Kwesi Adofo-Mensah), Chiefs (Ryan Poles) and Rams (Brad Holmes). The other three third-rounders? The league doesn’t specify tit-for-tat, but presumably those went out for the losses of Kenny Golladay (Detroit), Trey Hendrickson (New Orleans) and Matthew Judon (Batlimore).

• While we’re there, the two Los Angeles teams tied for the most comp picks with four each. And the Rams, by the way, are now up to eight picks—104, 142, 175, 211, 212, 218, 239 and 254. So when they say “f--- them picks,” maybe they mean “f— them (high) picks.” Les Snead & Co. still have a lot to work with on draft weekend.