NFL Draft Winners and Losers: Who Should Be Happy After Round 1?

Thursday night brought good news for the Packers, Jared Goff, New York tabloids and Elon Musk. But as for the Cards, Commanders and hand-size advocates…

This was the least quarterback-centric draft we’ve had since 1997, when James David Druckenmiller Jr. of Allentown, Pa. was the first passer off the board (Pick No. 27, 49ers).

Yet, Thursday turned out to be a complete joyride. A laugh riot. The first overall pick was a piñata swing at unseen potential. The run on wide receivers was chaotic and desperate. Multiple(!) prominent receivers were dealt in the first round. And New Jersey football may have returned to halcyon days.

What better way to get into it all than a little round of Winners and Losers. Shall we?

WINNERS

Ravens and Packers

Both teams took slightly different paths to the same truth: you can’t simply make decisions with the sole intention of pacifying your quarterback. Lamar Jackson was obviously upset about the trade of Hollywood Brown, but in the meantime Eric Decosta and Co. were busy picking arguably two of the best players in the draft (safety Kyle Hamilton and center Tyler Linderbaum). Both Hamilton and Linderbaum, one could argue, dropped to where they did because there is rarely a booming market at the center position and some teams are seeing a declining importance at the safety position. The latter cannot be less true for the Ravens, who have always thrived with instinctive safety play. The same can be said for finding athletic offensive linemen who can get out ahead on running plays.

Every time the Packers didn’t take a wide receiver on Thursday the worst comedians among us tweeted angry Aaron Rodgers memes. The thought came to mind: Don’t you think Aaron Rodgers knows you need a good defense to win games? The Packers left Round 1 with two of Georgia’s star defenders, linebacker Quay Walker and defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt, who could end up being the best defensive lineman in the draft.

What would Rodgers rather? Ensure the defense doesn’t get embarrassed for a third straight year in the playoffs by a run-centric offense gutting their core weaknesses, or trade all of the equity they got for Adams to insert themselves into a wildly overpriced and chaotic first-round receiver market (when there are likely players who, stylistically, fit with Rodgers just as well or better available in the later rounds) simply to pad his ego?

Giants

The Giants’ offensive line is by no means solidified, but they are ascending at both anchor spots with cost-controlled talents who possess elite skills. Nabbing Evan Neal at pick No. 7 was about as common sense as it gets, but also represents a strong first outing from new general manager Joe Schoen. He did not overthink the moment. The Kayvon Thibodeaux pick cemented the idea that the Giants are under new management and are no longer beholden to some fairly dated ways of thinking about roster construction. While the Giants were never picking this high during most of the Jerry Reese era, and picked a running back the last time they were within striking distance of a potentially elite pass rusher (Bradley Chubb), Thibodeaux represents the best raw tool set for a Giants pass rusher since Jason Pierre-Paul. Dave Gettleman’s rebuild centered on both the offensive and defensive lines but ignored the need for overwhelmingly dominant traits. Thibodeaux is a powerful edge bender who will force offensive coordinators to amend their protection plans.

Howie Roseman

You can read more of my thoughts on Roseman here, but CliffsNotes: Two years ago he was about as cornered as any general manager could be. His Super Bowl roster was aging out. The coach got fired. The quarterback regressed. From this, he somehow conjured roughly a half-dozen first-round picks and ended Thursday with A.J. Brown and Jordan Davis. The best part? Philadelphia still has multiple first-round picks in next year’s draft, where they may find their long-term answer at quarterback if Jalen Hurts doesn’t rapidly ascend in 2022. We’ll write a little bit more about the Hollywood Brown trade below, but compare what Roseman gave up for Brown and what he paid to extend him, versus what the Cardinals sacrificed for a lesser wide receiver who will end up needing to get paid almost as much despite less production and less functional uses for him in an offense.

Joe Douglas

By God is this man trying. Being the general manager of the Jets is not easy. Hopefully at some point, owner Woody Johnson realizes this and stops firing them with regularity. All Douglas has done so far is come in, fix the salary cap and re-energize the franchise with desperately-needed draft capital. If he’s wrong on Zach Wilson, shame on him. But that shouldn’t erase the fact that he came out of Thursday with two players who could immediately change the complexion of Robert Saleh’s defense, and arguably the best receiver in the draft. NFL Network’s analytics department netted a 2.5-win swing based on their performance Thursday and the haul didn’t include the most important position player in the sport. That’s the best wins increase, according to their model, of any non-QB drafting team in a decade.

Headline Writers in New York

APPLE SAUCE, AWESOME SAUCE, HOT SAUCE … I mean, regardless of whether Ahmad Gardner has a good game, a bad game (BURNT SAUCE) whether he doesn’t work out (PANNED SAUCE), or sits on the bench for an entire afternoon in complete silence (CLAMMED SAUCE), there is a perfect tabloid headline.

The Receiver Market

Perhaps we are seeing the counteroffensive to coverage-heavy defenses. Teams are going to drop eight defensive backs into coverage? Then offenses are going to line up three or four very good wide receivers on every play and try to make that more difficult. Based on league-wide behavior Thursday, and in the preceding three weeks, wide receivers hold more positional leverage than any group aside from quarterbacks. Deebo Samuel, if he is ever dealt, has a blank check waiting for him on the other side. At the very least, his market position has vastly improved in San Francisco as well.

David Tepper

Despite providing a massive vote of confidence for Matt Rhule and Sam Darnold in his pre-draft press conference, I cannot imagine the Panthers’ owner wanted to go out and take a ridiculous long shot on a quarterback. Instead, Carolina leaned on pragmatism, selecting an offensive tackle to aid them in a far more long-term rebuild. Ikem Ekwonu will benefit the Panthers no matter who is wearing a headset in 2023, which is not something we could say about, say, Malik Willis.

Jared Goff and Dan Campbell

While I don’t quite understand it from an organizational standpoint, Campbell and Goff have been given the green light from general manager Brad Holmes. The former Rams executive is bringing the team’s targeted, all-in approach to Detroit and is refusing to duck and cover until Aaron Rodgers exits the division. Thursday was an incredible vote of confidence in Campbell, who some in the coaching carousel community didn’t feel was long for the NFL. It was an incredible vote of confidence in Goff, trading up 20 spots to nab tumbling Alabama star receiver Jameson Williams despite a slate of other pressing needs. The result is an intriguing team on paper that boasts one of the best offensive lines in football and, perhaps, with the addition of Aidan Hutchinson, a far more representative defensive line.

Elon Musk

The prospective new owner of Twitter sat back and watched as some of the most popular players in the NFL voiced their disappointment or confusion over administrative maneuvers made by their own employers on his social media platform. There was Taylor Lewan after the A.J. Brown trade. More prominently, there was Lamar Jackson after the Hollywood Brown trade. Not only did he tweet “Wtf” (why trade friends?) he also retweeted a person named “First Take Chuck,” who wrote, “What the f—--- f—- bro! We traded away Hollywood” followed by seven broken heart emojis. He also retweeted a post from the Cardinals welcoming Brown with two “crying face” emojis and a red “angry face” emoji.

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LOSERS

Commanders

Jahan Dotson is electrifying, but the pick highlighted what felt like a misplayed scenario. The Commanders traded back from pick No. 11, with the Saints coming up to take wide receiver Chris Olave out of Ohio State. Washington dropping back five spots meant they missed out on the two remaining elite receivers (Jameson Williams went one pick after Olave) and only netted an additional third- and fourth-round pick for the trouble. While Dotson may pair ideally with the Commanders’ playmaker set, the team either didn’t like him enough to take him at 11, didn’t foresee the run on receivers, or whiffed on some player they thought they could have gotten at 16 who didn’t make it there. The Commanders’ roster is needier than just one wide receiver, and it would seem Carson Wentz needs more hand-holding from his weapons at this point. Dotson is more of a luxury for a team that already has the identity and depth to utilize him.

Cardinals

There is certainly an analytical and schematic case for Hollywood Brown to the Cardinals. Perhaps the marriage of Brown, Kliff Kingsbury, Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins makes this criticism look foolish in retrospect, but it’s difficult to view GM Steve Keim as a runaway winner on Thursday when the Eagles netted a much better receiver for just an additional third-round pick. On Thursday, Keim talked at length about his long-time infatuation with Brown, though we’ll see if the Cardinals can create a similarly successful environment for the speedy wide receiver. There will also be immediate pressure for Keim to extend Brown, who, in the middle of this booming receiver market, has the Cardinals in a bit of a leveraged headlock.

Keim has spent a notable amount of draft capital on the wide receiver position; a habit that has only accelerated under the franchise’s transition to a modified Air Raid offense. Yet, he still needed to supplement all of that equity with dips into the free agent market. Indeed, after taking Andy Isabella, Rondale Moore, Hakeem Butler, Christian Kirk and Chad Williams, Keim still needed to trade for Bown, DeAndre Hopkins and sign A.J. Green to fill out the depth chart.

Lamar Jackson

Of course it’s unfortunate for Jackson that his long-time friend and best wide receiver was dealt. More than that, though, the Marquise Brown deal forces Jackson to become more dependent on himself at a difficult stage of his career. Jackson’s style of play was always going to complicate his already-complicated, self-represented contract discussions with the Ravens. Now, Jackson is void of established playmakers beyond Mark Andrews, his phenomenal tight end, and could find himself leaving the backfield on foot more often than usual. It could end up being a convergence of circumstances that make long-term security harder to attain. There seemed to be a push just a year ago to surround Jackson with more receivers to help him showcase his accuracy and ability to drive the ball long and outside. That changed quickly, despite the first-round selection of Rashod Bateman a year ago. A stylistically diverse receiver room is now noticeably less multidimensional, forcing the athletic Jackson to take more of that on his own shoulders.

Imagination

Malik Willis shouldn’t be on the board right now. It’s difficult to see where offenses are trending, look at Willis’s raw abilities on tape and not see an opening for him to succeed fairly quickly in the NFL right now. He will likely go early in the second round, which is where some of the league’s quality starters—Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo—have gone of late. No shame in that. The true disappointment is in whatever blockage exists in draft rooms for offensive coordinators to convince their head coaches, GMs and owners that elite athletic and arm-talent traits are going to become beyond necessary at the quarterback position. There is a reason Kyle Shanahan unloaded all of his draft capital to select Trey Lance last year.

Pragmatism

A few years ago, we wrote that time was running out on offensive playcallers like Jason Garrett. The static, this-is-my-system feel was rapidly falling out of style. Coaches who were not up on all emerging trends were destined to die out. The same can now be said for general managers who aren’t doing everything they can to maximize their stockpile of draft equity by flipping said equity for established star playmakers. The days of sitting contently at your designated pick location are so far behind us, and the 2022 draft showcased as much. Howie Roseman has been fluidly dealing picks for more than two years now and has manipulated the board in his favor multiple times. Brad Holmes, in an homage to the aggressiveness of former boss Les Snead, dove way back into the first round for next to nothing, netting Jameson Williams. Joe Douglas climbed back into the first round for a third time.

Jaguars Defensive Coaching Staff

The Jaguars’ first round highlighted their belief in the potential and positionless football. This is good news for the future of the NFL. This is bad news for a coaching staff that will shoulder the responsibility of making it all happen. We’ve seen issues already developing in Arizona with the likes of Isaiah Simmons. Theoretically, he’s talented enough to be one of the NFL’s most valuable chess pieces. In reality, the Cardinals have a hard time finding a place for him. Travon Walker is a bit different given that his size will most regularly keep him aimed at the quarterback with a full head of steam. That said, he may be best utilized as a hybrid defender who can also clog passing lanes.

Hand-Size Advocates

Ol’ Baby Hands Kenny Pickett was the first quarterback off the board Thursday night and will play his professional football outdoors in the northeast. I imagine dozens of old-fashioned scouts spitting their chewing tobacco into styrofoam cups then fainting at the idea of this young man picking up a football in the rain. The beauty of it all? Pickett is going to a capably run organization in Pittsburgh. Chances are pretty good that he has a fine career. Last season, Joe Burrow, who was also accused of Baby Hands Syndrome, made it to a Super Bowl. Should Pickett succeed, it will only prove that we have spent decades arguing about one of the dumbest possible aspects of a quarterback’s trait profile, insisting that it matters only because some other old scout spitting chewing tobacco into a styrofoam cup told us as much.