Five Thoughts on the Broncos’ Sale to Rob Walton

Plus, answering your mailbag questions on Aaron Donald’s contract, Odell Beckham Jr., Drew Lock, three rookies ready to make an impact and more.

Before we get started, here are five quick thoughts on the Broncos’ sale that went down late into the night Tuesday.

1) The NFL is getting what a lot of owners wanted, and that’s someone with experience running a legacy company (in this case, Walmart). In that way, Rob Walton joining the league’s ownership circle, at a price of $4.65 billion, is analogous to Home Depot founder Arthur Blank buying the Falcons nearly two decades ago. Most of the newer owners in recent years have been money guys or real estate tycoons.

2) The Broncos fetching a number that’s more than double what the Panthers did shouldn’t be surprising. Maybe they aren’t the Giants or Steelers, but the franchise has established itself as one of the league’s most stable and successful for the last 40 years. There’s a lot to build on there.

3) The market is vibrant—Denver is growing, and there’s a lot of money there. And while it’s not a huge television market (16th in the U.S.), the team’s footprint is massive. Remember, Colorado is bordered by six states that don’t have NFL teams, and the closest one to Denver (Kansas City) is 600 miles away. Compare that to the I-95 corridor, with six teams (Commanders, Ravens, Eagles, Jets, Giants, Patriots) within a stretch of about 450 miles of highway, and you can see the opportunity.

4) David Tepper bought the Panthers in 2019 in part because he thought it was a sound investment, with a looming gambling boom likely to make team values skyrocket. He got Carolina at $2.275 billion. Again, the Broncos went for more than double that. Tepper’s not perfect, but it’s fair to say he’s pretty good at reading markets.

5) The Walton family dynamic, with the Rams owned by Rob Walton’s cousin’s husband, Stan Kroenke, is now pretty interesting. Not only do you have the two of them in the NFL, you also now have the family controlling three of the big four teams in Denver. Kroenke owns the NHL’s Avalanche and the NBA’s Nuggets, as well as MLS’s Rapids and the National Lacrosse League’s Mammoth.

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All right, now we can get to your mail for the week …

From Jean-Luc (@jeanlucxo): So with the new numbers on the Aaron Donald contract, do you see him opting out after 2 years and going home to Pittsburgh? He’s accomplished, surefire Hall of Famer, you name it. Just a thought.

Jean-Luc, from an overarching perspective I think this is the best example of a nonquarterback using his leverage since Darrelle Revis was shutting down the NFL’s best receivers (must be something about those Pitt Panthers). Donald, like Revis once did, scored a massive new deal with three years left on his existing contract. Unlike Revis, he did it without having to add any term to the deal, and he did it in his 30s.

So why did the Rams do what NFL business principles maintain they shouldn’t? There are two reasons why, for them, this made sense.

1) Donald is truly one of one. So setting a precedent here shouldn’t be an issue. He’s a homegrown, three-time Defensive Player of the Year, who quite literally made a Super Bowl–winning play for them—if he hadn’t beaten that double team, Joe Burrow would’ve seen Ja’Marr Chase, with Jalen Ramsey having fallen down, and have had time to find him in the end zone. That he didn’t have time to is all Donald (and Donald, remember, also forced the game-sealing pick in the NFC title game).

2) Donald had the leverage of retirement. So sure, the Rams could look at their best player and say, We aren’t just gonna hand you a $40 million raise. But if he walks away, then what? You’ve cost yourself a true generational talent to make a point.

And I’m laying that out to make this point: If Donald wants to finish up with the Steelers in 2024 at age 33, he’ll have the leverage to do it. Either he won’t be worth the $30 million he’s due to be guaranteed that March, and they’ll cut him and he can go; or he’ll still be the same guy and can draw a similar line in the sand.

The real tell on Donald’s ability to wield this leverage, by the way, came in the summers of 2017 and ’18, when he staged consecutive holdouts through an era in which few players do. The guy knows his power and isn’t afraid to use it; and if he wants to be a Steeler down the line, he’ll be a Steeler down the line.

From SB LVI Champs - TheMikeBar3 (@themikebar3): OBJ signing soon????

Mike, I don’t think Odell Beckham Jr. is in any massive rush to sign. The reality is he probably won’t be ready to go until sometime between Thanksgiving and Christmas, and that gives him the flexibility to wait for the right offer, and the right playing opportunity, which could come through an injury, or through someone’s receiver situation not being quite what they thought it’d be.

The good news is that Beckham should be a closer approximation of himself when he returns this time around. His ACL wasn’t in good shape at any point last year, following the first surgery, meaning it was a matter of time before the injury he suffered on Super Bowl Sunday happened.

The Rams would like him back. And my guess would be he might get a new suitor or two once offseason programs are complete, and teams have a chance to discuss the state of their rosters coming out of it.

From Jollyboys (@jollyboyscar): I have high hopes for Drew Lock—not expecting him to be a world beater, but sometimes players get drafted into the wrong situation. Do you think he could be useful in a run-first then throw it deep offense, or should we give up hope? Also, he isn’t 50m/yr.

Yeah, Jolly, I’d say there’s merit to the idea that Lock could be more now than he was in Denver—and the Seahawks got a little glimpse into what they believe he could be at the end of Lock’s rookie year in Denver.

That year, over the season’s last five games, he completed 64.1% of his throws for 1,020 yards, seven touchdowns, three picks and an 89.7 quarterback rating. What’s more, he did it playing for then coordinator Rich Scangarello, who was raised in and ran the Sean McVay–Kyle Shanahan offense that Seahawks OC Shane Waldron installed in Seattle last year, meaning a lot of what they saw translated over.

Now, does that mean Lock’s going to turn into Patrick Mahomes. Of course not. But could he be a really suitable bridge for a year, while the team gets its ducks in a row at the position, and maybe grow into a guy worth keeping past this year? Sure. He’s talented enough, too, to take the dice roll. So maybe he’ll become, say, 2015 Kirk Cousins, which would be plenty to stay competitive with.

From Lee Bromfield (@LeeBrom): Which are the 3 rookies poised to make the biggest impact in their first seasons in 2022?

Lee, love the question. Here are my three …

Evan Neal, OT, Giants: Neal started 40 games over three years in the nation’s premier program, and one with a strong track record of producing an NFL-ready linemen. He’s started games at guard, right tackle and left tackle. And the Giants have an immediate need at tackle. Neal’s gonna play, and my guess is he’ll play really well.

Trent McDuffie, CB, Chiefs: Kansas City has a need at the position, and I had more than a couple of experience personnel men say to me before the draft that McDuffie’s meetings and football aptitude were as good as any player’s they’ve seen coming out the last few years. McDuffie also started all three years at Washington, getting on the field right away as a true freshman, which can be an indicator of how a guy handles the transition to the pros.

Derek Stingley Jr., CB, Texans: Speaking of transitions, this guy started every game he played in as a collegian—and was one of the country’s best players as a true freshman. He’s wildly talented. He’s an NFL legacy. He won’t be intimated making the jump to the pros and is coming from a program that’s a factory for secondary talent. If he stays healthy, I think he’ll play and play really well right away.

Ken Blaze/USA TODAY Sports

From Scott Wood (@ScottWood761): When will NFL office figure out Deshaun Watson’s suspension.

Scott, the temperature on the situation has surely escalated this week, with the 24th lawsuit being filed and a new report from The New York Times surfacing Tuesday. Ordinarily, in the past, I might have said these sorts of things could cause the league to move. The difference now is that, in the 2020 CBA, the NFL ceded the initial decision-making on discipline to a neutral arbitrator. And if you’re thinking like an ex-U.S. district court judge would, it stands to reason that you’d want as much information as possible before rendering a decision.

That makes June 30 a key date in all this. That’s the deadline for pretrial discovery in these cases. I do believe we’ll get a decision on Watson during the month of July. But my guess—and it’s a guess at this point—is it won’t be before then because that deadline comes soon enough to provide time for the league to finalize the decision before training camp.

Again, the NFL might feel the heat in a situation like this. I don’t think Sue Robinson will.

From Jake Hamilton (@_JakeTHamilton): What do you know about the Deebo situation in SF? That story went sort of cold and if Jimmy G leaves, would he pull an Odell and sit out to force a trade? Thanks!

Jake, what I know is the Niners have worked on the Deebo Samuel relationship and have been very careful about anything they say on it. And my sense is that the drafting of LSU’s Tyrion Davis-Price in the third round this year, after the team spent picks last year on Elijah Mitchell and Trey Sermon, was an olive branch of sorts to Samuel—with the team showing a commitment to having depth in the backfield, so it won’t need to resort to what it did last year, in not just handing Samuel the ball, but giving him grinding, inside carries.

I can’t say whether Samuel’s going to respond to that by green-lighting his agents at CAA to do a deal with the 49ers, since for much of the offseason he’s been strident in saying no to even the idea of exploring an extension. But if he does, then I think there’ll be a workable solution that’ll show the benefits from having gone through all this (since receiver deals for A.J. Brown, Davante Adams, and Tyreek Hill have gotten done in the interim).

As for Jimmy Garoppolo, I don’t think he’ll just sit out. Or at least I’d be surprised by it. He has $24.6 million on the line this year. Garoppolo obviously wants to be a starter somewhere in 2022. But he can’t just magically generate a starting job somewhere. His best bet is to be ready if one opens up.

From Steve Cardenas (@Steve_Cardenas): Are people sleeping on the Colts this year? They never seem to be mentioned when people talk about contenders.

Steve, here’s why no one’s really talking about the Colts: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson and you get the picture. The AFC is loaded, or at least looks that way, and high profile, and in most cases young quarterbacks are leading the top teams.

The Colts, conversely, traded for Matt Ryan to Band-Aid their quarterback situation after striking out on Carson Wentz, and while I’d agree that the 37-year-old is being a bit overlooked for a former MVP who’s accomplished a lot over the course of his career, I also understand why he’s less fun to talk about than, say, Allen or Mahomes or Herbert in May. The other thing, of course, is how last year ended for that Indy team.

But look, there’s no question that remains a really well-put-together roster, and Frank Reich and his staff are plenty capable, having made the playoffs in two of their four years in Indianapolis. And the division that they’re in makes getting to 12 or so wins easier than it might be in the AFC East or North or West, which could lead to favorable seeding if Indy can outdistance the Titans this time around. So who knows?

From Tom (@Tom63395407): Any idea how the Pats’ offense will change with Josh gone.

Tom, I’d expect, like a few people have said already, some simplifications to the offense that Josh McDaniels ran, maybe more so in verbiage than anything else. I’d also caution anyone on overselling that aspect of it. First of all, the process of taking complications out of an offense that had become very specific to Tom Brady, and geared toward leveraging his know-how and brainpower, has been ongoing for a couple of years. Second, I don’t know that what the Patriots were doing last year on that side of the ball was a problem to begin with.

Yes, in the past, and in particular in the Brady years, New England’s scheme was a challenge for even the most experienced veterans coming in (and obviously for younger players, too) from the outside to assimilate into. Last year? Well, Mac Jones started from the jump, and posted a 92.5 passer rating and 22–13 TD-INT ratio for the season. Kendrick Bourne, coming from the Niners, had 55 catches. Hunter Henry, a Titans import, had nine touchdown catches. Rookie Rhamondre Stevenson rushed for 606 yards.

So is the offense changing? Yes, it absolutely is. And I get the concept of getting a little simpler in a day and age in which young players are coming from play-fast offenses in college. But I wouldn’t undersell, in any way, the job McDaniels did or what the Patriots are losing in him. I don’t think there was much wrong with that scheme last year.

From Christoffer A. (@cvoersaa): Will we see Nick Bosa get extended before the season, or will he have to wait until next year to get his much-deserved extension since he is under control for the next two years?

Christoffer, I think getting Jimmy Garoppolo traded would go a long way toward getting a Bosa extension done. And given what Donald just got, I think it’d be smart to try to do something sooner than later. Because as we’ve seen all offseason, waiting to do a deal with a star player will make things only more expensive. Bosa won’t come cheap at any rate, but doing his now will make the monster deal he gets a tad more manageable. But again, first things first, and that’ll likely have to be finding a new home for Garoppolo.