What NFL Ticket Prices Say About the Playoff Picture Ahead of Week 4

Based on insights from reservation data, hot starts and shaky early performances have shifted how this year’s postseason could look.

Which Week 3 games changed things the most for the NFL playoff picture? Things can move quickly in the NFL, but some hot starts and shaky early performances have shifted how this year’s postseason could look. Here’s a look at what did (and didn’t) move the needle in Week 3, using insights from SI Tickets’ postseason reservations.

Are the Jaguars Playoff Bound?

It wasn’t just that Jacksonville beat the Chargers on the road Sunday afternoon. It was how they won that was so impressive. While Justin Herbert clearly wasn’t 100% healthy and was without top target Keenan Allen, the Jaguar defense forced a pair of turnovers and held Los Angeles to its lowest scoring output since Week 6 of 2021. And on offense, Trevor Lawrence is starting to look like the quarterback who was once regarded as a generational prospect in his second pro season. He had an incredibly efficient day, completing more than 70% of his passes with three touchdowns and no interceptions.

Jacksonville is now 2–1 for just the third time since 2007 and is the only team in the AFC South with two wins so far this season. Between a weak division, a rising star quarterback and an impressive defense, there are plenty of reasons to believe the Jags have some staying power in the playoff race. Per SI Tickets, the reservation price for divisional-round playoff tickets for Jacksonville rose 66% this week, the biggest increase in the NFL.

Fly, Eagles, Fly

The Eagles increasingly look like a force to be reckoned with in the NFC after blowing out the Commanders and looking explosive again on offense in the process. They might just be the best team in the NFC: After a 13% increase in reservation prices this week, the Eagles now are the most expensive NFC championship game reservation on SI Tickets.

Philadelphia’s emergence into a contender has coincided with huge strides from Jalen Hurts at QB, who is proving doubters wrong yet again as he blossoms into one of the more dangerous dual-threat QBs in the NFL. Hurts was spectacular Sunday, throwing for 340 yards and three touchdowns to torch the Washington secondary. It helps to have an incredibly dangerous group of receivers that features A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith (8 catches, 169 yards and a touchdown Sunday) and Dallas Goedert.

Uncertainty in New England

The Patriots are in a tricky spot through three weeks after Sunday’s home loss to the Ravens. Despite not being able to stop Lamar Jackson, the Pats had multiple chances to take the lead late but committed a pair of key turnovers that led to a 37–26 loss that dropped New England to 1–2 on the season. And to make matters worse, QB Mac Jones suffered a severe high-ankle sprain that will likely cause him to miss multiple games, leaving the Pats with Brian Hoyer and rookie Bailey Zappe as options at QB.

At 1–2 and staring down having to start a backup QB at Lambeau Field Sunday afternoon puts the Pats’ postseason hopes into question, especially if Jones is out for an extended period of time. Having to navigate a division that features two of the best teams in football in the Dolphins and Bills doesn’t help matters. Reservation prices on SI Tickets dropped 26% for divisional-playoff games for the Pats this week.

Raiders’ Hopes Sink Further

For the second straight week, the Raiders lost in heartbreaking fashion and are now the NFL’s lone 0–3 team. This week’s loss came against the Titans in a game that saw Las Vegas play from behind all game only to have a chance to tie on a two-point conversion with just over a minute to play. The Raiders are a couple of bounces away from being 2–1, but instead are in a fairly deep hole in Josh McDaniels’ first year as head coach. Starting 0–2 was bad enough, but the fall to 0–3 dropped divisional-round reservation prices by another 22%, per SI Tickets.

Hope of a turnaround starts Sunday afternoon in Las Vegas against the 2–1 Broncos, who haven’t exactly looked sharp to start the season. That game feels close to a must-win, particularly considering the next game on the schedule is a trip to Arrowhead Stadium to take on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Sunday’s matchup with Denver is a hot ticket, with SI Tickets reporting an average price of nearly $900, the highest in the NFL this week.

Don’t Panic About the Chiefs, Bills

Two Super Bowl favorites in the Bills and Chiefs suffered losses this weekend, but you shouldn’t overreact about their chances of competing for the AFC crown. The Bills played what could end up being the game of the year in the NFL in a thrilling back-and-forth affair with the Dolphins and came up just short, with Josh Allen’s potential game-winning TD pass for Isaiah McKenzie coming up short on fourth and goal.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs played a sloppy game against a desperate Colts team. Backup kicker Matt Amendola missed a field goal and an extra point, Travis Kelce dropped a touchdown pass, Skyy Moore muffed a punt and Kansas City failed on an ill-advised fake field goal early in the fourth quarter. It’s hard to imagine they’ll replicate those mistakes, especially once Harrison Butker gets back from injury to solidify the kicker spot.

That’s why SI Tickets’ reservation prices barely changed for these two uber-talented teams. For the AFC Championship Game, Bills reservation prices actually went up a tick under 1%, while Chiefs prices dropped just 6%.