NFL Week 6 Preview: Best Games, Key Questions, Predictions

The story lines we’ll be watching closely, including AFC supremacy between the Chiefs and Bills. Plus, the NFC East lead is at stake between the Eagles and Cowboys.

Welcome to Week 6 featuring two of the best matchups of the 2022 season. We have Bills at Chiefs, a repeat of last year’s AFC divisional game, which featured both teams combining for 25 points in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter, the second most in any game in the Super Bowl era. And we have Cowboys at Eagles battling for NFC East supremacy with Micah Parsons and a stellar Dallas defense trying to slow down Jalen Hurts and Philadelphia offense. If you love offense, you should get plenty of it in both of these games.

So get ready for another crucial week on the NFL schedule.

To get it kicked off, Albert Breer and Conor Orr will take you through the Sunday and Monday games, noting the best matchups and what they’ll be watching.

GAMES OF THE WEEK

Mahomes' Chiefs defeated Allen's Bills in a 42-36 overtime thriller in the AFC divisional playoffs last year :: Denny Medley/USA TODAY Sports

Bills at Chiefs, 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday: The game of the week, this Bills-Chiefs matchup comes at an interesting time a little more than 25% through the season. While it will tell us little about who is actually the best team in the AFC, it provides a nice benchmark as to where both teams are in terms of getting over last year’s playoff game and forging ahead with new identities. Sean McDermott has been ahead of the curve in terms of defending Patrick Mahomes, so it’s worth watching what he rolls out defensively. — C.O.

Cowboys at Eagles, 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday: While the Cowboys are still playing somewhat one-handed sans Dak Prescott, seeing this defense against a versatile Eagles offense will set the table for the late-season jockeying almost certainly to take place in the NFC East. Jalen Hurts has been masterful on the move this year, but what happens when a player such as Micah Parsons, who can transcend most protections, steps into the backfield? — C.O.

Jets at Packers, 1 p.m. ET Sunday: The Jets look like they’re on the way up, with three wins in their last four games, an improving young quarterback and what looks like a fantastic rookie class. The Packers, meanwhile, have struggled to find their stride, as a loaded defense has underperformed and the offense has taken its lumps in breaking in a young group of receivers. So this will be an interesting checkpoint for both teams. — Albert Breer

Vikings at Dolphins, 1 p.m. ET Sunday: Without clarity at the quarterback position, it’s impossible for the Dolphins to right the ship with any consistency. Facing a potent Vikings team, this game will be about Miami’s ability to creatively deploy the running game and play sound defense, not small tasks against a team with Justin Jefferson. — Conor Orr

Ravens at Giants, 1 p.m. ET Sunday: Whether or not the Ravens defense holds up against Brian Daboll’s versatile, creative scheme should be interesting. But to me, the main attraction is Lamar Jackson's offense against defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, who was in Baltimore through Jackson’s first four years. Jackson’s playing at an insanely high level, and you’d think if anyone had the key to slowing him, it might be Martindale. — A.B.

Broncos at Chargers, 8:15 p.m. ET Monday: If it feels like every game is a referendum on the trade for Russell Wilson. Well, that’s life in the big city—it’s how the Rams lived all year last year after dealing for Matthew Stafford, and that one worked out in time. This one will also be interesting from a game-management perspective, given all the attention Brandon Staley and Nathaniel Hackett’s in-game decisions have commanded. — A.B.

FANTASY BOLD PREDICTION OF THE WEEK

Rhamondre Stevenson will rush for over 100 yards in Cleveland. Stevenson ran wild last week in the absence of Damien Harris, posting 161 yards in a 29–0 win over the Lions. Predicting him to rush for 100-plus yards might not seem too bold as a result, but it is for the Patriots. In fact, just three New England running backs have rushed for 100-plus yards in back-to-back weeks in the last 14 years. I’ll also predict that Stevenson will finish as a top-10 fantasy running back in what is a plus matchup. — Michael Fabiano

• Fabiano’s Week 6 Start ’Em, Sit ’Em: QB | RB | WR | TE | K/DEF

QUICK QUESTIONS

What is your one big prediction for Week 6?

Smith is completing 75% of his passes with nine touchdowns and only two interceptions :: Stephen Lew/USA TODAY Sports

Orr: While I believe, deeply, that the Packers will eventually return to form and potato-smash every opponent from Halloween on to win the division comfortably, I also believe that we’re shorting the Jets a bit, who have played really well in moments—like, for most of the season opener against the Ravens—but have won games deemed ‘flukey’ in nature. It contributes to a general unease some may have in picking them to win big games. So, here it goes, a full-scale flip-flop from my weekly pick: The Jets get a start-to-finish quality win against one of the best teams in football.

Breer: That Geno Smith will outduel Kyler Murray in a wild shootout. Neither team has looked like the ’85 Bears on defense, and both quarterbacks are plenty capable—and I’m starting to buy a little bit on Smith being better than everyone thinks. Give some time to operate behind his rookie tackles, which I think Smith will get, there are matchups for him to exploit in this one. So mark me down for 300 yards, three touchdowns and a win for ol’ Geno.

Which team most needs a win in Week 6?

Orr: The Cardinals. With one week to go until DeAndre Hopkins’s return and the birth of a more functional offense, it would be huge for Kliff Kingsbury to be sitting at 3–3 and not 2–4. Beating the Seahawks ensures a fertile competitive ground from which to build.

Breer: The Steelers. Pittsburgh’s 1–4, starting a rookie quarterback and waiting for its best player to return from injured reserve. It hosts the Buccaneers this week, so getting a win is a lot to ask. But moral victories aren’t going to do it for much longer, not with the Dolphins, Saints, Eagles and Bengals after Tampa, and the idea of the season slipping away becoming very real.

Which coach or player is most under pressure in Week 6?

Orr: Matt Rhule sort of took the bullet for everyone, though the sense I got from the coach-hiring community this week was “it’s gonna be a long season; better put the coffee pot on.” Which means, with Sean Payton out there, and really, a small handful of truly ready, obviously strong candidates for 2023 available, teams looking to make a change will be better served getting a head start. So, I would say any serially underperforming coach—and you know who you are—best look alive this weekend.

Breer: Matt Ryan and Frank Reich. The Colts survived in Denver, and Ryan basically willed the team to victory. Frank Reich’s betting big on rookie left tackle Bernhard Raimann to prove him right, while moving Matt Pryor to right tackle, and big money right tackle Braden Smith inside, and all of that will put a little more on the quarterback to keep the train on the tracks. And after last season ended in a meltdown in Jacksonville, getting swept by the Jags wouldn’t be the best look. So all of this feels like a crossroads for coach and quarterback.

Which team will everyone be talking about after Week 6?

Orr: The Commanders, and really, for all the wrong reasons. ESPN’s investigative piece, which dropped Thursday before Washington’s matchup with the Bears, seems to have set the table for the culmination of a bread-and-butter war between owner Daniel Snyder, the NFL and the owners who apparently despise him.

Breer: I’d agree with Conor on this one. And rightfully so. Other than that, I think it’ll be the outcome of Chiefs-Bills, regardless of what it is.

Who is your Coach of the Year through five weeks?

Orr: TIE: The New York Guys (Daboll and Saleh) and Mike McCarthy. Three coaches doing more with less than just about anyone in the NFL.

Breer: Mike McCarthy. We can’t sit here killing the guy for two years and then not recognize him for what’s happened in 2022. He has navigated injuries to his quarterback, left tackle and receivers, had Cooper Rush, Tyler Smith and a plan to work around the absences of Michael Gallup and James Washington ready to go. And shoutout to Dan Quinn, too, for having his defense where it is to support the great work McCarthy’s done.

Which underdog has the best shot to win outright in Week 6?

Orr: My only true path to happiness goes through the idea that the Saints hand their entire offense over to Taysom Hill again and allow him to upend the Bengals. Some of us can function only in complete and utter chaos.

Breer: I think the Patriots are a tough matchup for the Browns, especially Cleveland’s run defense. So give me New England to slow Nick Chubb, put the ball in Jacoby Brissett’s hands and ride Rhamondre Stevenson back to .500.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL BEST BET

Surprise, surprise: The NFC East is back in the spotlight as one of the best divisions in football, and two of its best teams will take center stage in prime time on Sunday Night Football. The Eagles are the NFL’s only undefeated team (5–0) and will host the Cowboys (4–1) in a battle for first place.

We cooked up a juicy same-game parlay using SI Sportsbook’s bet builder that offers a +240 payout. Bet $100, win $240; bet $10, win $24.

While the Eagles have the better straight-up record, the Cowboys are more impressive against the spread. Dallas boasts a 4–0 ATS record with Cooper Rush starting in place of Dak Prescott. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is 3–2 ATS. The total sits at 42.5 with Eagles games going over in two of five while Cowboys games have gone over in just one. The last three times these NFC East rivals met, they over-cashed, but this year their defenses are playing much better. The Eagles are No. 7 in points allowed per game, and the Cowboys are No. 3. In fact, the Cowboys haven’t allowed more than one touchdown in each of their five games. Take the under (42.5), grab the 6.5 on the Cowboys and get ready to cash in on a +240 wager. — Bill Enright.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Orr: Today we wrote a story about the psychology of recovering from a difficult loss in the NFL. One doctor I spoke with for the piece said it was his hope that speaking about athletes recovering from difficult (in relative terms, of course) situations could provide some semblance of comfort to anyone out there struggling with their mental health, that there is a process and a remedy for you. The doctor acknowledged that access remains the biggest barrier to those who need mental health support and services. Here is a helpful list of charities that can help improve such access, if you are feeling generous this Friday and would like to help make a difference.

Breer: We need more rivalries like Eagles-Cowboys, where you have legit trash talk and T-shirts and edgy crowds … and the whole damn thing. I don’t want these teams to be polite with each other. And, yes, I like it when you hear players such as DeMarcus Lawrence (“Y’all will see it Sunday”) put their mouth where their money is.

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