NFL Week 9 Preview: Best Games, Key Questions, Predictions

The story lines we’ll be watching closely, including a Rams-Buccaneers matchup which could determine both teams’ playoff fate. Plus, picks for midseason MVP.

We’ve reached the midway point of the 2022 NFL season, and Week 9 features plenty of new faces in new places after Tuesday’s trade deadline. Bears quarterback Justin Fields has a No. 1 receiver (Chase Claypool), Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins has a new tight end (T.J. Hockenson) and Bills quarterback Josh Allen has another pass catcher (Nyheim Hines), to name a few. And the Dolphins have a new pass rusher in Bradley Chubb, who signed a $110 million extension Thursday. So get ready for another crucial week. We’ll find out which deadline moves will pay the biggest dividends come playoff time.

To get it kicked off, Albert Breer and Conor Orr will take you through the Sunday and Monday games, noting the best matchups and what they’ll be watching.

GAMES OF THE WEEK

This is the first time Brady has been multiple games under .500 as an NFL starter :: Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA TODAY Sports

Chargers at Falcons, 1 p.m. ET Sunday: For all the bumps they’ve endured, and the injuries they’ve taken on (Joey Bosa and Rashawn Slater are still out), Justin Herbert & Co. are only a game out of first in the AFC West. But with the Chiefs rolling out of their bye, it won’t be easy to keep pace. So this is one of those Sundays, against a tough, smart, resourceful, but undermanned Falcons team, that feels like it could swing the season one way or the other for the Chargers. — Albert Breer

Dolphins at Bears, 1 p.m. ET Sunday: With two different takes on the same offense, and with two vastly different rosters, the Dolphins and Bears face off in a game that could send Miami on its way in the AFC East. I’ll be watching for the Bears to see if they can put together another solid Justin Fields performance with the addition of Claypool. Fields, over the past four weeks, has completed more than 65% of his passes for six touchdowns and two picks. His quarterback rating is about 100. Compare that with the beginning of the season (also a four-game sample): 50% completion rate, two touchdowns, four interceptions and a quarterback rating of 58. — Conor Orr

Bills at Jets, 1 p.m. ET Sunday: Tough slate of games here for Robert Saleh and the Jets, given the Patriots’ game was a week ago. Now they take on the best team in football. All eyes will be on Zach Wilson in a game that could certainly determine how all of us on the outside view the future of the quarterback position in Florham Park. A smart Jets fan may want to view this game in a few separate buckets: Does the defense hang tough? Do the receivers get open? Is there room to run the football? Wilson is his own variable right now. — C.O.

Vikings at Commanders, 1 p.m. ET Sunday: Who’d have thought this one—in Week 9—would have playoff implications? And, yet, here we are—Minnesota’s 6–1, made a splash with the acquisition of Hockenson, and is off to visit a Washington team that’s 4–4 behind Taylor Heinicke and riding a three-game winning streak. Oh, and where the Vikings are adding Hockenson, the Commanders could be bringing Chase Young back (O.K., so it’s probably more likely he returns for the Eagles’ game next week). So mark this down as one of those fun surprises we get, where a game that looks blah before the season becomes a lot more than that. — A.B.

Rams at Buccaneers, 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday: You could label this the Free-Fall Bowl in that the loser will be in a great deal of trouble. The Buccaneers (3–5) have more of a cushion given how horrendous the NFC South is, but both teams are struggling to perform the very basic functions needed by their offense to work. The Rams (3–4) are trying everything to find some reliability in their backfield, and create the kind of run-game efficiency they had with Todd Gurley. Kyren Williams “is a playmaker” according to Sean McVay, but has no NFL experience. He’ll be launched into a platoon with Darrell Henderson (who had the flu last week) and Ronnie Rivers, who showed some encouraging ball-carrying skills early in their loss to the 49ers. — C.O.

Titans at Chiefs, 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday: Tennessee has won five straight and has the ability to play the game on its terms and limit how much Patrick Mahomes gets the ball. A smaller, faster Kansas City defense could have a tough time with Derrick Henry. And to further prove the styles-make-fights point, the Titans have taken two of three from the Chiefs. So, after what we saw in San Francisco two weeks ago, are you betting against the Chiefs? — A.B.

FANTASY BOLD PREDICTION OF THE WEEK

Herbert will throw for 350-plus yards. He is having a down season on the stat sheets—both on the field and in fantasy land—but this is a get-right game. Even without Mike Williams, I can see Herbert going off in what is a great matchup against the Falcons. Their defense has allowed 350-plus passing yards in two of its last four games, and third-stringer P.J. Walker beat them for 317 yards last week. Look for Herbert to hit 350 yards with ease, and maybe even go for over 400 yards. — Michael Fabiano

• Fabiano’s Week 9 Start ’Em, Sit ’Em: QB | RB | WR | TE | K/DEF

KEY QUESTIONS

Who’s your pick for midseason Most Valuable Player?

Allen has thrown for 2,198 yards and 19 TDs and is tied for first in QBR at 76.7 with Patrick Mahomes :: Gregory Fisher/USA TODAY Sports

Breer: Easy. Joshua Patrick Allen. Watching the game on Sunday night, it was so clear the margin for error he’s given the Bills—it almost looks like Buffalo’s playing on a smaller field than everyone else with Allen. And it was proven in that the Bills took their foot off the gas in the second half, and Allen turned the ball over a couple times, and they still won by 10 against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. If the Bills stay healthy, and refocus a little, I don’t think running the table is out of the question. And I mean all the way through February because of Allen.

Orr: Albert was smart and picked first, and I don’t disagree. But I’ll give you a name on the other side of the ball: Patrick Surtain II. The Broncos are winning games on the strength of their defense. Their quarterback is the polar opposite of what an MVP candidate would be right now. But their defense is one of the most efficient in the National Football League. Almost no one is covering receivers tighter than Surtain.

What is your one big prediction for Week 9?

Orr: Bears-Dolphins is another shootout. Surprise, surprise, right? But I could see more than 800 yards of offense being tallied between Justin Fields and Tua Tagovailoa this weekend. Miami is already in that mindset.

Breer: This is the week Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson break out for the Packers. The Lions’ defense is reeling as is, and this week they fired secondary coach Aubrey Pleasant, so they figure to be especially ripe for the picking. And that means we’ll all be left to wonder what was real in what we saw in Lions-Packers.

Which team most needs a win in Week 9?

Orr: Packers. No deals at the deadline leave Green Bay as is. Either the Packers allowed themselves to get outbid, or they thought the current pieces of the roster made sense for the stretch run. Maybe it’s a combination of both. All that said, the Packers have gotten nipped by some bad teams. The Lions are incredibly dangerous offensively, they’ve retooled their defensive coaching staff and they are swinging for the fences each week. If Green Bay isn’t careful, it’ll get demolished and possibly be out of the playoff race altogether.

Breer: Raiders. Sometimes perception becomes reality. And while I think Mark Davis will stay patient with Josh McDaniels and Dave Ziegler, the postgame meetings that have been reported on are a weird look, and a loss to the Jaguars might reinforce some feelings lingering from last weekend’s shutout at the Superdome. On the flip side, if the Raiders pull this one off, the Colts and Broncos are on deck, meaning Las Vegas could be back to .500 in a flash.

Which coach or player is most under pressure in Week 9?

Orr: Dan Campbell. While we aren’t sure what’s going to happen in Detroit, we are sure that the Lions were sellers at the deadline, they have only one win this season and, despite some incredibly encouraging offensive performances, have not been able to put a complete game together all year.

Breer: Tom Brady. This is the first time he’s been multiple games under .500 as an NFL starter, and he’s lost three consecutive for the first time in 20 years. And he’s looking up at Marcus Mariota and the Falcons in the NFC South. The Buccaneers went all-in on their current, aging core again in 2022. And now Brady’s in a spot where he’ll need to do what he’s done his whole career—elevate those around him—to prevent things from further unraveling. And Tampa Bay gets a Rams team in a similarly desperate spot.

The trade that will have the biggest impact on the playoff picture?

Orr: Robert Quinn to the Eagles. I think we’re all preparing to see the same thing deep into the postseason: the Birds getting a touchdown lead late and turning the game over to a vicious, veteran pass rush to close it out. How are you going to handle this team with five-man protections?

Breer: Give me Hockenson to Minnesota. He was plenty good as the focal point in Detroit’s passing game, so imagine what he could look like now with Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook drawing defenders away from him. In a weakened NFC, I don’t think it’s impossible that Minnesota makes a serious Super Bowl run in Year 1 under Kevin O’Connell and Kwesi Adofo-Mensah.

Which underdog has the best shot to win outright in Week 9?

Orr: Barely an underdog, but the Raiders travel to Jacksonville this weekend getting 1.5 points. I’d bet they’ll figure this thing out sooner rather than later.

Breer: The Seahawks are an underdog in Arizona? Is this one of those “Vegas knows” situations?

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL BEST BET

It’s AFC battle in prime time with the Chiefs hosting the Titans in Week 9 on Sunday night. Despite Kansas City’s dominance the past few years, the Chiefs haven’t been able to get the best of Tennessee. In fact, the Titans have not only won but covered the spread in five of the last six contests against the Chiefs. But that trend will end in this matchup as the Tennessee defense is simply no match for the highly efficient Patrick Mahomes–led offense. The Chiefs rank No. 1 in points per game, points per play and red zone scoring percentage. The Titans’ defense is No. 9, 12, and 13 in those three categories. As for the Titans’ offense, their TD average per game (2.1) is essentially half of the Chiefs’ average (4.0).

Those statistical mismatches are enough proof to boost confidence in laying the 11.5 points with the Chiefs while also betting the over (46.5) for the game total. That same-game parlay pays out +210 (bettors win $21 for every $10 wagered). — Bill Enright

FINAL THOUGHTS

Orr: This week we saw Colts owner Jim Irsay do another round of publicity for the Colts’ Kicking The Stigma campaign. As we mentioned in a column this week about the ownership situation with the Commanders, we tend to view owners in somewhat broad strokes. Their bad reputations, in many respects, are earned. But putting practical money into lessening Indiana’s status as a mental health desert is a noble cause. I’d urge you to check it out, or any local charity or social service organization that raises money for access to mental health services (one of my personal favorites for the locals in New Jersey can be found here).

Breer: Watch what’s happening in Minnesota now—and apply it to how you think about your team, and your quarterback. O’Connell and Adofo-Mensah went in there, and basically implicitly said, “What we found wasn’t broken.” Instead of denigrating what Rick Spielman and Mike Zimmer built, they embraced Cousins, Jefferson, Thielen, Cook, Christian Darrisaw, Danielle Hunter, Eric Kendricks and Harrison Smith. They took Their Guys and made them Our Guys. And the lesson? That detonating a place isn’t always the answer. And it’s one, interestingly enough, the Panthers seemed to get this week in resisting selling off a number of wildly gifted young guys (something I bet will be appreciated by whomever is the next coach).