NFL Week 15 Playoff-Clinching Scenarios, Best Games and Predictions

The story lines we’ll be watching closely, including whether the snow and cold take out Tua and the Dolphins. Plus, can the much-improved Jaguars upset the Cowboys?

We’re in Week 15 of the NFL season, and only the Eagles and 49ers have clinched a playoff berth, while the Bears, Texans and Broncos have been eliminated from playoff contention. So 27 teams still have hopes of making the postseason tournament, and five of those teams can clinch playoff spots Sunday.

Here’s a closer look at this weekend’s playoff-clinching scenarios:

• The Chiefs can clinch the AFC West title with a win against the Texans—or a Chargers loss—or a tie and a Chargers tie. They can clinch a playoff berth with a tie, plus losses by the Jets and Patriots—or a tie, plus losses by the Dolphins and Jets or a Jets tie—or a tie, plus losses by the Dolphins and Jets and a Patriots tie.
• The Bills can clinch a playoff berth with a win against the Dolphins—or a tie and a Chargers loss—or a tie, plus losses by the Patriots and Jets—or a tie, plus ties by the Chargers and Patriots and a Jets loss.
• The Cowboys can clinch a playoff berth with a win against the Jaguars—or a tie and a Giants loss—or a tie and Giants-Commanders doesn’t end in a tie—or a tie and Seahawks loss—or a Seahawks loss and Lions loss or tie—or a Seahawks loss and a Commanders loss.
• The Vikings can clinch the NFC North with a win or tie against the Colts—or a Detroit loss or tie.

So there are plenty of big games to focus on this week, and Albert and Conor will take you through Sunday’s slate, noting the best matchups and the story lines they’ll be watching.

Games of the week

Tagovailoa hasn't played in snow during his NFL career. But he could encounter a large amount of it on Saturday in Orchard Park, where the weather forecast calls for four to eight inches :: Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports

Dolphins (8–5) at Bills (10–3), 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday: It’s gonna be cold. It’s gonna snow. And you’ve heard about it all week because it’s a team from Miami going there (spare me the crying from Floridians on cold-weather teams needing to have roofs over their stadiums). Buffalo can’t clinch the AFC East this week, but a win would eliminate the Jets and Patriots, and mean the Dolphins would have to go 3–0, and the Bills would have to go 0–3 for the division not to be theirs for a third consecutive year. Sean McDermott’s crew also seems to be coming together at a time when the Dolphins have hit a skid, with two straight losses. So everything’s screaming Bills here, which probably should have Buffalo worried. — Albert Breer

Lions (6–7) at Jets (7–6), 1 p.m. ET Sunday: The Jets are attempting to save their season against one of the hottest teams in the NFL. All preseason, smart folks such as colleague Richard Johnson were predicting the Lions were going to be playing meaningful snaps in January. Smart colleagues such as Gary Gramling were predicting on The MMQB podcast that Jared Goff would become a more accepted, borderline top-tier passer. It’s happening. Meanwhile, the Jets need to figure out how healthy Mike White is after a brutal, physical loss to the Bills, especially with the vulnerable Zach Wilson in the No. 2 spot. — Conor Orr

Cowboys (10–3) at Jaguars (5–8), 1 p.m. ET Sunday: Trevor Lawrence is playing good ball and so is the team around him—with a pretty consistent level of play, save for one off day in Detroit, over their past five games. Believe it or not, if the Titans trip up against the Chargers, and the Jags upend the Cowboys, Jacksonville will control its own destiny in the AFC South. Meanwhile, Dallas needs to keep winning to stay alive for the NFC East crown, with a showdown with 12–1 Philadelphia looming on Christmas Eve. — A.B.

Patriots (7–6) at Raiders (5–8), 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday: The Belichick Bowl could have an intriguing new face: Pierre Strong, the team’s fourth-round pick out of North Dakota State. Strong looked great in a truncated workload against the Cardinals and could be one of New England’s secret weapons down the stretch. Anything to hopefully snap this offense out of the sleepwalk they’ve been on for the better part of this season. — C.O.

Bengals (9–4) at Buccaneers (6–7), 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday: Joe Burrow would never say it so I will—I believe he’s the closest comp to Tom Brady to come into the league since Brady himself came to prominence two decades ago. In this case, Burrow’s got a shot to deliver a devastating blow to the Buccaneers, who are struggling to stay in front of the Falcons and Panthers in the NFC South. The status of three of Burrow’s targets this week—Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst—could be key to how this one plays out. — A.B.

Fantasy bold prediction of the week

The Jets defense will hold Jared Goff under 12 fantasy points. Goff has been one of the hottest quarterbacks in fantasy football, scoring a combined 47.7 points in his past two games and posting 17-plus in three consecutive contests. All of those games, however, were at Ford Field. On the road, Goff is far less productive. In fact, he’s thrown just two touchdown passes and has seven giveaways in five road games. The Jets defense has been tough on quarterbacks, so Goff could be in for a difficult day in New Jersey. — Michael Fabiano

• Fabiano’s Week 15 Start ’Em, Sit ’Em: QB | RB | WR | TE | K/DST

Key questions

After his amazing comeback on Thursday Night Football, there isn't any doubt that playing for McVay might be best for Mayfield :: Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports

What is your one big prediction for Week 15?

Orr: Desmond Ridder scores three touchdowns against the Saints. We’re all expecting the third-round pick to flounder, but what if he’s…fine? Sure, New Orleans’ defense is great and has been torturous on young quarterbacks in the past, but what if Ridder playing on schedule unlocks some of the skill-position talent on this roster?

Breer: Derek Carr will throw for 300 yards and a triple-digit passer rating on a really strong Patriots defense. Josh McDaniels knows the New England defensive scheme inside and out, and its personnel, too. And as such, I think he’s going to generate matchups for Davante Adams, and space for Josh Jacobs, two things that’ll add up to Carr being set up to play an efficient, strong game.

Which team most needs a win in Week 15?

Orr: The Browns. Cleveland’s offense has looked so overwhelmingly pedestrian since they made a quarterback change three weeks ago. While anyone needs time to adjust to the speed of the NFL, the Browns will need to see glimpses of the reason they altered the course of their franchise for Deshaun Watson. Beating the Texans with special teams and defensive touchdowns doesn’t count.

Breer: The Titans. Tennessee has lost three in a row, and its offensive coordinator Todd Downing got a DUI after the team’s win against the Packers. General manager Jon Robinson got fired, and big picture questions are being asked. A loss opens the door for the Jags to steal the division from Mike Vrabel’s crew down the stretch. And a win won’t be easy to come by against the Chargers in L.A. So, to me, this becomes one of two things—either a foot-in-the-ground turning point for the Titans, or a sign that the clock is starting to wind down on a proud core of veteran players in Nashville.

Who are the offensive and defensive coordinators who will land head-coaching jobs in 2023?

Breer: On offense, give me Philly’s Shane Steichen—the Eagles have actually prepared for that with Kevin Patullo lined up to replace him. I’d put the Bills’ Ken Dorsey and the Lions’ Ben Johnson next after Steichen. And on defense, it’s hard to not put the 49ers’ DeMeco Ryans at the top of the list. He checks a lot of boxes (very productive unit coached, ex-player, experience in a successful system, varied experience), and has the personality and temperament of a head coach built in. But he’s just one name in what’s a pretty significant backlog of qualified defensive coaches (Raheem Morris, Dan Quinn, Jerod Mayo, Vance Joseph, Jonathan Gannon, Ejiro Evero, etc., etc.) that’s built up as owners have veered towards hiring offensive guys.

Orr: I’ll concur with Albert. I think Steichen is the name I’d go out on a limb for. I think Johnson, who we tabbed as a Sean McVay in the making in September, is another intriguing option. Frank Smith (Dolphins) and Kellen Moore (Cowboys) are other offensive coaches ready for a bump up the ladder. On defense, it’s all about Ryans right now. These are his jobs to lose, especially given his access to offensive coaches on Kyle Shanahan’s staff. Others to keep an eye on: Gannon, who interviewed with the Texans last year; Quinn, who had a handful of interviews as well; and Evero (Broncos) and Morris (Rams).

Will Tom Brady be a starting quarterback in the NFL in 2023 or in the booth for Fox?

Breer: I think this is a real toss up—I don’t think even he knows whether he’ll play. But I’ll say he will—just based on history—and he should have options if he does decide to give it a go (with the 49ers, Raiders and the Giants all potential suitors).

Orr: I have always believed that Brady will never call a game for the omnivorous mammal network, or any other for that matter. I think there are too many complex wheelings and dealings for us to ever take any public move he makes at face value. As he has said publicly, he’s lying about almost everything he says in front of reporters. So how silly would we be to sit there, nod, and say, “Oh sure, yes, this is one of the three percent of times.”

Where will Baker Mayfield be playing next season?

Orr: The Cardinals. Should Kliff Kingsbury make it to next season, he’ll need a quarterback who knows the system and its principles. While I think Mayfield should do all he can to remain in the McVay orbit, a McVay Lite offense with familiar Air Raid flavoring would suit him well.

Breer: The Rams. I think this is L.A.’s first real swing at replacing Matthew Stafford, whose arm issues and the concussion this year I believe will make him at least think about walking away. In the end, I do think Stafford will give it another year, but the uncertainty over his future, and his fit with McVay, would afford Mayfield the chance to prove he could become No. 9’s successor.

Kyler Murray tore his ACL on Monday night and will likely miss significant time next season. Could we see major changes next year in Arizona? A coaching change? Maybe a new GM?

Orr: With Steve Keim stepping away for health reasons, I’ll defer comment on the latter. What I will say about the former, and I have written a few times in the past, was that Kingsbury’s extension absolutely floored some people in the coaching community. I’d spoken to folks who expected that job to be open before last year, and open even with the Cardinals limping into the playoffs.

Breer: I think there’s a decent chance that ownership detonates the building, so long as the Bidwills are willing to cut the checks to do so.

Sunday Night Football best bet

We saw these two NFC East foes tie just two weeks ago but that’s a lifetime ago by NFL standards. In the week between their first and upcoming second showdown, the Giants were dismantled by the Eagles, 48–22, while the Commanders had the week off to rest and recover. New York has either lost or tied their past four games, but they still have one of the league’s best records against the spread (9–4). The Giants are getting 4.5 points on the road in Washington where the Commanders have a 3-2-1 home record (ATS) but just a 1–3 record (ATS) against NFC East rivals. Can the Giants get back on track to save their playoff hopes? Probably not, but they will at least cover the spread. Bank the 4.5 points with Brian Daboll’s squad in Week 15.

Final thoughts

Orr: These are the top five Christmas albums of all time:

1. Vince Guaraldi Trio: “A Charlie Brown Christmas”

2. John Denver & The Muppets: “A Christmas Together”

3. Kenny Burrell: “Have Yourself a Soulful Little Christmas”

4. Barenaked Ladies: “Barenaked for the Holidays”

5. “A Christmas Gift For You From Phil Spector”

Have a nice weekend.

Breer: Not sure how I top that. Merry Christmas, everyone.