NFL Week 16 Playoff-Clinching Scenarios, Best Games and Predictions

The story lines we’ll be watching closely, including whether the Jaguars can take down the Jets. Plus, can Gardner Minshew clinch the No. 1 seed for the Eagles if Jalen Hurts doesn’t play?

We’re in Week 16 of the NFL season, and only the Chiefs, Vikings and 49ers have clinched division titles, while the Cowboys, Eagles, Bengals and Bills have clinched playoff berths. And five teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, so there’s still plenty to play for with three games left on the regular-season schedule.

Here’s a closer look at this week’s playoff-clinching scenarios:

AFC

• The Bills can clinch the AFC East with a win at the Bears or a Dolphins loss.
• The Ravens can clinch a playoff berth with a win vs. the Falcons, plus a Dolphins loss or tie, plus a Patriots loss or tie—or a win, plus a Dolphins loss or tie, plus a Jets loss or tie—or a win, plus a Patriots loss or tie, plus a Jets loss or tie—or a tie, plus losses by the Patriots and Jets—or a tie, plus losses by the Patriots and Dolphins, plus a Chargers win—or a tie, plus losses by the Patriots and Dolphins and a Chargers win—or a tie, plus a Patriots tie, plus a Jets loss, plus a Dolphins loss—or a Patriots loss, plus a Jets loss, plus a Brows loss or tie, plus a Raiders loss or tie, plus a Titans loss or tie, plus a Chargers win.
• The Chargers can clinch a playoff berth with a win at the Colts, plus losses by the Raiders, Patriots and Jets—or a win, plus Raiders loss or tie, plus a Jets loss, plus a Dolphins loss.

NFC

• The Eagles can clinch the NFC East and the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs with a win or tie at Dallas—or they can clinch home-field advantage and a first-round bye with a win or tie, plus a Vikings loss or tie.
• The Giants can clinch a playoff berth with a win at the Vikings, plus losses by the Lions and Seahawks—or a win and losses by the Lions and Commanders—or a win and losses by the Seahawks and Commanders.

So there are plenty of big games to focus on this week, and Albert and Conor will take you through Sunday’s slate, noting the best matchups and the story lines they’ll be watching.

Games of the week

Lawrence and Rayshawn Jenkins celebrate their overtime win over the Cowboys in Week 15 :: Bob Self/Florida Times-Union/USA TODAY NETWORK

Jets (7–7) at Jaguars (6–8), 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday: Al Michaels rejoice; this is a very good football game with serious juice. Don’t roll your eyes. The Jets have one of the better collections of skill-position players in the league. Garrett Wilson is a must-watch, regardless of who is playing quarterback. Zach Wilson did not have a tremendous return to the starting lineup, but he displayed more situational confidence than we’ve seen from him in a long time. Do some of these big-time throws come back to bite him this week, or does it wedge him back into the starting lineup permanently? — Conor Orr

Seahawks (7–7) at Chiefs (11–3), 1 p.m. ET Saturday: Standards are high in Kansas City, so it’s worth pointing out that it’s been a wobbly December for the Chiefs. In fact, their best game this month was probably their 27–24 loss to the defending AFC champion Bengals. They nearly blew a massive lead in Denver, a 34–28 win, and needed overtime to beat the Texans, 30–24. So this is a good time to go in for a status check on the team that’s played in four consecutive AFC title games. As for Seattle, well, this would be a good spot to stop the bleeding and show the (rookie-heavy) team isn’t hitting some sort of collective rookie wall. — Albert Breer

Giants (8-5-1) at Vikings (11–3), 1 p.m. ET Saturday: How can the Vikings not be completely exhausted after their Saturday night comeback from a week ago? This is a solid bellwether game for Minnesota, which has beaten quality teams this year but has also struggled against middling opponents at times (and were blown out by very good opponents, too). The Giants, or as I’ve dubbed them, NFC Titans, are going to stay within a score throughout this game. — C.O.

Bengals (10–4) at Patriots (7–7), 1 p.m. ET Saturday: The Patriots are coming off a weeklong trip out West where they beat a Kyler Murray–less Cardinals team, then blew their game in Vegas in spectacular fashion, with the offense sputtering throughout. Oh, and here come the red-hot Bengals into Foxboro for Christmas Eve. Cincinnati’s weathered injuries at receiver, and the Bengals are back at full strength. If Joe Burrow & Co. can land a knockout blow in New England, and the Chiefs stumble, the Week 17 Bills-Bengals Monday nighter could wind up being for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. — A.B.

Eagles (13–1) at Cowboys (10–4), 4:25 p.m. ET Saturday: An incredible matchup slightly marred by the news that Jalen Hurts is not at 100%. Dallas, nipped in overtime by the Jaguars a week ago and nearly beaten by the Texans a week before, is going through a kind of late-season malaise. This is the perfect time to test its capabilities and see where its feet are in a critical moment. Dak Prescott has thrown seven interceptions since Thanksgiving. Can he iron himself out? — C.O.

Fantasy bold prediction of the week

Gardner Minshew will score 18-plus fantasy points in Dallas. The loss of Hurts is a veritable death blow for fantasy managers looking to earn a berth in their league championship. Still, I think Minshew could be a decent replacement for those in need. Keep in mind, he scored 17-plus points seven times as a rookie in 2019, and he put up 18.8 points in his lone start for the Eagles last season. Can he replace the stats Hurts can produce? No. But can Minshew surprise us with a nice level of production that can ease his loss, even a little? I think he can. Don’t be afraid to start him in Dallas. — Michael Fabiano

• Fabiano’s Week 16 Start ’Em, Sit ’Em: QB | RB | WR | TE | K/DST

Key questions

Jefferson leads the NFL in receptions (111) and yards receiving (1,623) and is eligible for a contract extension after this season :: Matt Krohn/USA TODAY Sports

What is your one big prediction for Week 16?

Orr: There are fewer than 20 total points scored between the Rams and Broncos this weekend. While I don’t know whether that’s considered “big” per se, it is significant that a Russell Wilson–led offense and a Sean McVay offense would end the season in complete sputter, even if Wilson has been milquetoast at best throughout the year.

Breer: The Packers will get a 100-yard performance from a rookie receiver and, this week, it won’t be Christian Watson. Instead, it’ll be Romeo Doubs, who earned Aaron Rodgers’ trust early but missed four games injured and just got back Monday (he went for 55 yards on five catches against the Rams). And maybe I’m on an island on this one, but I actually think Doubs and Watson could make the Packers dangerous if they can sneak into the tournament in January.

Which team most needs a win in Week 16?

Breer: The Buccaneers. And this is as much about their opponent as anything. Tampa Bay is 1–3 since its bye, with the one win coming by one point over the Saints. So any loss, at 6–8 and with the other three teams in the NFC South a game back, would be costly. Finding a way to lose to an Arizona team in disarray, though, would be cause to push the panic button. A win, on the other hand, sets the team up to build real momentum through the final two weeks, with Carolina and Atlanta on the horizon.

Orr: The Jets. A win gets them back in the playoff soup and—if they were to win—that means Wilson played capably enough to carry them that far. I don’t think the Jets need to make the playoffs this year. It seems everyone has forgotten how bad it was before this season. But to make a legitimate run that comes down to final-week math would be a gigantic lift for this franchise.

We saw the greatest comeback in NFL history in Week 15. But what’s the greatest game you’ve ever seen in the NFL?

Orr: When I worked for NFL Network, I and a handful of my co-workers were in our own special booth to recap and cover the Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl. I sat near the late Chris Wesseling, a dear friend, whose joy in those moments was unforgettable. Most sportswriters are in a contest to act as indifferent as possible to the moment, but Wess was jumping up and down the entire time, hollering and talking about all of his favorite players. It was sublime. And the ending of the game left us all completely stunned. I have never been in a moment since where I was almost completely frozen, praying that I would have more time to write.

Breer: Conor’s pick is a good one. I’ll go a few years back from there—and give you an underrated one, and that’s Super Bowl XLIII. Steelers-Cardinals had it all. There was the wild, first half-ending, 100-yard interception return on the goal line from Pittsburgh’s James Harrison to give the Steelers a 17–7 lead. There was Larry Fitzgerald, who was in the midst of the greatest playoff run a receiver has ever had, taking over in the fourth quarter (he had six catches for 115 yards and two touchdowns in those 15 minutes) and scoring one of the most dramatic touchdowns in Super Bowl history, taking a slant 64 yards for a touchdown to give Arizona its first lead after it had trailed 20–7 with 2:37 left. And then there was the Steelers’ epic, eight-play, 78-yard drive thereafter, capped by the impossible catch by Santonio Holmes to win it. You had an older Kurt Warner. You had a younger Ben Roethlisberger. The Cardinals were coached by Ken Whisenhunt, who was Steelers offensive coordinator for their title two years previous. Like I said, that game had it all, and just a little bit more than Brady’s epic comebacks in Super Bowls XLIX and LI.

Week 15 had many questionable calls by officials. Have we reached a point where the league should consider fines or suspensions for poor officiating?

Breer: No, but they should be subject to the same scrutiny and criticism as players and coaches. They should also be made available to all media, not just one person, after games. Let the players and coaches say what they want about them. It’s time, to me, for that bubble to burst. Oh, and give them a Sky Judge. I’ll say it until I’m blue in the face—there’s really no reason for these officiating crews not to have the benefit of all the different angles and looks the rest of us get sitting on our couches at home.

Orr: No. NFL officiating being terrible in one game and fine in another is part of the deal. It’s the connection football has with baseball, where some kind of nervous human being behind the plate or straddling the 40-yard line can completely alter the course of a game. The NFL made its own beds on this, sleeping with gambling companies at a time when problem betting is on the rise among many young folks. The league deserves any speculation it gets when someone suspects an official of fixing a game.

Justin Jefferson is eligible for an extension after this season. Should he be the highest-paid receiver in the NFL?

Orr: Jefferson should set the salary floor at $33 million per season but ask for almost the entirety of the deal to be guaranteed. I should also ask for steak for dinner and lobster as a snack, but in reality, I don’t have the leverage. Jefferson is a one-of-one player with a rare combination of size, athleticism and, most importantly, the desire to go up and take balls away from other cornerbacks. He needs to lock the deal in before it’s too late.

Breer: That’s an easy yes. The only question is the level to which he changes the market for his best friend [Ja’Marr Chase] over in Cincinnati, who’ll be eligible for his own new deal in 2024. Now, on paper, Tyreek Hill makes $30 million annually, Davante Adams makes $28 million and DeAndre Hopkins makes $27.25 million. But the reality is those deals were back-loaded—none had $25 million per in the first three years of the deal. So Jefferson should, theoretically, top what Hill got. The bigger question will be how all that money is structured, particularly with two years (the final year of his rookie deal and his fifth-year option) baked into the agreement.

The Chiefs just won their seventh consecutive division title under Andy Reid. Where would you rank Reid in terms of all-time great coaches?

Breer: Reid’s phenomenal—the only coach in NFL history to have decade-long runs with two NFL teams, one of just seven to get two teams to the Super Bowl (Don Shula, Bill Parcells, Dan Reeves, Dick Vermeil, Mike Holmgren and John Fox are the others), and an offensive innovator in so many way. But he’s behind Shula, Bill Belichick, Bill Walsh, Vince Lombardi and Chuck Noll just based on the volume of their accomplishments. After that, you got legends such as Tom Landry, John Madden and Joe Gibbs, who set up dynasties. So if I had to ballpark this, I’d say he’s probably somewhere right around 10th.

Orr: I think in modern NFL history, Reid is right behind Belichick. Let’s say from 1990 on, the ranking is probably Belichick, Reid and Shula, with Shula’s best years coming in the 1970s and early ’80s, which was a drastically different era of football.

Sunday Night Football best bet

When the NFL schedule makers slotted the Cardinals and Buccaneers as the primetime game on Christmas, they most certainly were not operating under the assumption Arizona would be trotting out their third-string quarterback and Tampa Bay would be barely clinging onto its postseason hopes. Yet, here we are with Trace McSorley making his first career start and the Bucs sitting at 6–8. Arizona is a heavy home underdog, getting 7.5 points from the oddsmakers at SI Sportsbook. That may not seem like a lot of points for any third-stringer facing Tom Brady. But keep in mind the Bucs are 3-10-1 against the spread, the worst ATS mark in the NFL. Tampa Bay does have the NFC South title within reach and with the Panthers and Saints nipping at their heels, they’ll need to win in what should be a very “coverable” game. Lay the points and take the Bucs.

Final thoughts

Orr: As we mentioned up top, problem gambling is on the rise, especially among younger men. Check out this Wall Street Journal article from this week. If you or someone you know is going through it, there are plenty of resources out there to help you before the issue gets serious. Take a breather. Find a meeting. Reach out for assistance.

Breer: I’ll send our very best to the Steelers organization—they’re dealing with the loss of Franco Harris, of course, but also a very difficult situation involving the family of longtime PR man Burt Lauten. Holidays can be tough in a time of loss. Here’s hoping for peace for those in Pittsburgh, and the very best of luck for the Lautens.