Daniel Jones’s Price Tag at Least $33 Million in 2023

Albert Breer’s mailbag features questions about the Giants quarterback’s pending free agency, the coaching carousel and the Patriots’ top offseason needs.

Super Wild-Card Weekend is in the books and now we’re on to the best NFL weekend of the year with the divisional round. Let’s dive into your mailbag questions, some related to future landing spots for quarterbacks, coaching developments, some touching on other topics … 

From Ryen Russillo (@ryenarussillo): Has there ever been a fifth-year option declined and then QB gets extended with same team?

Ryen, yes, there’s been one—Blake Bortles. The Jaguars picked up his option for 2018 and then signed him to a three-year extension for $54 million.

Here’s the list of other first-round quarterbacks who’ve had their fifth-year option declined since the current rookie-contract system went into place with the 2011 CBA: Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert (declined by the 49ers, not the Jaguars, after a trade), Christian Ponder, EJ Manuel, Teddy Bridgewater, Mitchell Trubisky and, yes, Daniel Jones (Brandon Weeden, Josh Rosen, Johnny Manziel and Paxton Lynch were all cut before decisions on options).

On top of that, only Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota and Sam Darnold (and he’d already been traded to another team) have actually played out fifth-year options among quarterbacks from that time frame. It only reinforces that, in almost every case, teams know what they’ve got after three or so years, which is why Year 3 is so critical for guys drafted in the first round at that position. How the Dolphins built around Tua Tagovailoa this year is a great example of that.

Anyway, so the question’s a good one in that, a year ago, it looked like Jones’s time as Giants quarterback was up when his fifth-year option was declined. And yet the real tell had come months earlier with owner John Mara’s comment on the situation at new GM Joe Schoen’s introductory press conference. “We do feel Daniel can play,” Mara said. “We’ve done everything possible to screw this kid up.”

After struggling through his first three seasons, Jones is hitting free agency at the perfect time :: Danielle Parhizkaran/USA Today Network

Long story short, the Giants gave Jones a chance, and Jones took advantage of it. And now, New York will either have to tag Jones at, in all likelihood, around $33 million (far more than the $22.38 million option number they could’ve had him) or win him back over his other options on the open market. Remember, Jones is still just 25. He’s 6'5", 221 pounds with plenty of arm strength and athleticism, and 53 regular-season starts under his belt—and now this playoff run, plus all the lessons learned from playing for three coaches.

The Giants will make a bid to keep him. But because of all that’s transpired and this unprecedented situation he’s in—as such a high pick who’s actually playing well and is set to hit the market—he’s in a really good situation heading into March, regardless of what happens Saturday night in Philadelphia or thereafter.

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From DefendTheDen (@Vretz2121): McVay staffing hires: What can we expect and what are you hearing name-wise?

I think we’ll certainly see some shuffling. The first piece of it will be hiring an offensive coordinator, and I think the leader in the clubhouse will be former Jets offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur. Sean McVay’s close with LaFleur’s older brother, Matt, who happened to be his first OC in Los Angeles, and the younger LaFleur would also bring the experience of having worked with Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco, along with having called plays.

The second order of business would be managing the rest of the staff. One name I think McVay would love to add would be Browns offensive line coach Bill Callahan, and I don’t think it’s wild to think that, if the LaFleur idea doesn’t work out, McVay could throw the coordinator title at him to try to lure him west. Whether that happens or not, there also could be some natural attrition, with passing-game coordinator Zac Robinson, and offensive assistant and former LSU OC Jake Peetz, potentially in the mix for the Chargers’ coordinator job.

Then, there’s the chance Raheem Morris lands either the Colts’ or Broncos’ head coaching job. If that happens, it’d be interesting to see whether McVay could lure Denver’s Ejiro Evero back to Los Angeles to be his next defensive coordinator.

And after that? McVay’s always looking to add quality, so there could be more augmenting, for sure. All of this reflects that once McVay decided he’d be back, he was all the way back. And as part of that, he knew change would be necessary. And a willingness to undertake those tough decisions, I think, was a much bigger part of him mulling over whether to come back than people realize.

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From liam_malley10 (@LMalley10): If not BOB … who’s the No. 2 for the Pats’ OC? Hopefully Caley, right?

Liam, I’d say, yeah, Bill O’Brien continues to make the most sense for the Patriots’ OC job.

What if he were to go to Arizona or Tennessee or somewhere else? Well, then the plot would thicken in Foxborough, obviously. Their top in-house candidate, the guy you mentioned, Nick Caley, is out after his contract expired and has a shot to consider his options. He interviewed for the Jets’ OC job Tuesday, and he has strong connections to Las Vegas—Josh McDaniels probably would’ve taken Caley last year had Bill Belichick not blocked him from going. So he’s going to have his options.

My question would be whether after all that’s transpired over the past year, can the two sides go back down that road? Belichick didn’t clarify Caley’s role, so Caley turned down an extension, and Belichick promoted Matt Patricia and Joe Judge in front of him, and the feeling all season has been, as a result, that this would be Caley’s last in New England. Can Belichick swallow his pride and go back to Caley and have him run his offense? I don’t know.

After that, I think Browns passing-game coordinator Chad O’Shea and Saints line coach Doug Marrone, both of whom have deep ties to Belichick, would make a lot of sense. The former spent 10 years on the Patriots’ offensive staff, and would come with three years, just served in Cleveland, helping run the Shanahan-family offense under Kevin Stefanski. The latter is an old Bill Parcells guy who has been a head coach three times, and matches a lot of Belichick’s sensibilities.

If New England goes outside the family and wants to lean into the idea of running a Shanahan-McVay style of attack, guys such as the Rams’ Zac Robinson or Jake Peetz, or the Niners’ Bobby Slowik, would make sense, and former Jets OC Mike LaFleur could, too.

And I don’t know whether Belichick will open this thing up to that degree. But it’d be fun if he did.

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From PedroSchmith (@PedroSchmithYT): Commanders’ OC?

Pedro, I think the Commanders are fighting upstream on two things in finding their next offensive coordinator. The first is their own quarterback situation, and the fact that the three guys under contract are Carson Wentz (who’ll be cut relatively soon), Sam Howell (the starter as it stands right now) and Jake Fromm (who, at least for now, projects to be a camp arm). The second is the perception that Ron Rivera and his staff will be fighting for their jobs in 2023 after consecutive playoff-less seasons.

Rivera, I think, will have to overcome that by giving a coherent quarterback plan and promising control to the more qualified candidates. And here’s why—let’s say, for example, you’re Georgia OC Todd Monken. Would you leave the Bulldogs for the Commanders, where you’d have less to work with at quarterback and far less job security? If you’re, for that matter, Eagles QBs coach Brian Johnson. Would you jump just for the chance to call plays and make a few more bucks, rather than staying in an incredibly stable situation (where you might end up being the OC, if Shane Steichen gets a HC job, anyway)?

It's a hard sell, and if you’re going to win over candidates, it has to come through giving those guys at least some control over their own destiny. And in the end, honestly, all of that is why some people think Rivera will fall back on hiring quarterbacks coach Ken Zampese.

The uncertainty surrounding Washington’s future makes it unlikely Rivera will be able to attract the top tier of up-and-coming coaches for next season :: Scott Taetsch/USA TODAY Sports

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From Foody Guy (@Foodyguy1): Assuming good players are available each time the Patriots get to draft, what order by position would you suggest they draft?

Foody, these are always fun questions, and I’m gonna use rankings from my friends Daniel Jeremiah and Todd McShay to workshop a few names for you. Let’s dive in …

First round: Left tackle. It’s a hard position to fill, and the three long-term guys the Patriots have started at the position through the Belichick era—two of which worked out (Matt Light, Nate Solder) and another that didn’t (Isaiah Wynn)—were all drafted within the top 50 picks, which reflects how hard it is to fill the position otherwise. It looks like Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski and Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr. could be gone by the 14th pick, but either would make sense for New England. If not them, maybe Georgia’s Broderick Jones (Belichick’s had an affinity for Kirby Smart’s guys … but would he swing on another of his left tackles after missing on Wynn?)

Second round: Cornerback. The Patriots stand to lose their best corner, Jonathan Jones, in free agency, and got away with some smoke and mirrors at the position in 2022. So finding a young guy who can join a young, emerging group including ’22 rookies Jack Jones and Marcus Jones would be smart, if for nothing else than to take another swing at the position. So who would fit? Mississippi State’s Emmanuel Forbes and Michigan’s DJ Turner would be two who could be in play at No. 46.

Third round: Receiver or tight end. The Patriots traded their own pick for DeVante Parker, but have Carolina’s pick in the round (No. 77) after the Matt Corral trade. So getting a weapon for Mac Jones would make sense here. And receivers such as Penn State’s Parker Washington or Tennessee’s Cedric Tillman could be values in that range, as would a tight such as Iowa’s Sam LaPorta. On the latter position, it wouldn’t be stunning to see Belichick maybe take a swing on Georgia’s Darnell Washington a round earlier than this.

So there you have it, and I had way too much fun doing that. Draft season’s almost here.

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From Matthew Lownes (@LownesMatthew): What’s going on behind the scenes with the Jets? Any idea on QBs they may look to sign or trade for?

Matthew, I think a lot of jobs are going to be on the line in 2023, so this will be an interesting offseason. First, the dismissal of LaFleur was, as I see it, complicated, and replacing him will be, too, with candidates having concerns that the whole staff could be gone after next year. Interestingly enough, in a way, the Jets’ current bosses are victims of their own success, which recalls a situation from a previous regime.

The Jets went 10–6 in 2015, just missing the playoffs, under new coach Todd Bowles and GM Mike Maccagnan, with the plan to start a longer-term rebuild in ’16 (after laying that foundation). The trouble was the year had fooled ownership into thinking the team was close when it really wasn’t. So that offseason, rather than ripping off the Band-Aid, the Jets doubled down on fading vets, chased Ryan Fitzpatrick all offseason, and then a lot of guys got old at once in ’16, and the team slipped to 5–11.

That made the rip-the-Band-Aid off year 2017, and they went 5–11 again, and everyone was fired after ’18, the year when they could finally start building it back up.

This time around, it’s easy to surmise the team might chase their 7–4 start to this year, which preceded an 0–6 finish. And that’s fine. There’s talent on the roster. They’re not that far off. But they also aren’t that close to the Bills or Chiefs or Bengals, and conducting themselves like they are could wind up doing more damage than good, just like doubling down on the smoke-and-mirrors success of 2015 once did.

So that’s where the Jets are going into the offseason. If they get good health next year and stabilize the quarterback spot, I think they could be a playoff team. But this isn’t a team that’s a quarterback away from competing for a championship, unless that quarterback is Patrick Mahomes. And that’s why I think going and getting a good long-term-bridge type such as Jimmy Garoppolo makes sense for where their roster is now. That Robert Saleh’s worked with Garoppolo in San Francisco is a nice bonus.

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From Wolf Emoji, I think (@iTylen): Jets QB/OC situation: Carr or Lamar? Who’s the leading candidate for the Jets OC and is Todd Monken an option? <— that’s for all Jets fans?

I did think the emoji he had as a handle was a wolf. … So, Wolf, I think Derek Carr is a pretty decent option for the Jets for the same reason Garoppolo is—instead of taking a giant dice roll, you’d be just trying to get your head above water at the position.

The trouble with acquiring Lamar Jackson, and I love Lamar, is you’d have to be all-in on playing his style of offense. And if he gets hurt, as he has the past couple of years, now you’re up a creek with a lot of people’s jobs on the line, and that’s a really difficult place to be in. So while I’d normally take the risk for a guy such as Jackson, I’m not sure it makes sense for the staff, and because the staff could be in peril, it wouldn’t make sense for Jackson, either.

As for Monken, I’d be all for that. He’s creative, and Jets ownership loved him when they interviewed him for their head coaching job in 2019. He was runner-up to Adam Gase for the job.

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From TheBrandonRush (@BrandonRush): Neutral-site conference championship games a thing in the near future?

Brandon, I don’t even want to talk about that—it’d be a terrible development. Super Bowls are different experiences, and they should be. But even there, there’s definitely something you lose with so many fans in the stands without a vested interest in who wins and who loses. Take the special feel of the ultimate sporting event away from it, and I think you’re left with something that’s so far from what you already have it’s not even worth discussing.

Putting the conference title games at neutral sites would be a disaster.

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From Tom Marshall (@aredzonauk): Are the Eagles and Jalen Hurts in danger of being “rusty” for such a big game?

Tom, I’ve thought a lot about this, and I think it’s fair to ask the question. By the time the game kicks off Saturday night, the Eagles will have played a grand total of four quarters over the previous month with Hurts in the lineup. And in that one game he played, Hurts posted his second-lowest passer rating of the season, beaten out only by the game he got hurt in against Chicago. So the last time Hurts was at his best was Dec. 11 against the Giants in New Jersey.

That’s not nothing. I do think Hurts plays well Saturday, and Philly wins. But if he doesn’t, and they don’t, the question of rust will be a fair one in the aftermath.

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From BryceSZN (@TexansUK99): Is DeMeco Ryans actually planning to leave this season, or can you see him staying another year?

Bryce, I wrote about this last week. I think Ryans, the Niners’ DC, has the flexibility to be picky. He made around $50 million as a player. He has a job in San Francisco that insulates him as a head coaching candidate—the Niners should continue to be excellent as a team, and on defense, which protects his stock. And he’s still young at 38 years old.

I think Ryans will use all of this and, indeed, be selective. So I wouldn’t be surprised whether he pulls his name out of a search or two, as he did with Minnesota last year.

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From John May (@juandemayo): Has #Jags QB Trevor Lawrence ever lost on a Saturday (high school, college or NFL)?

No, John … but I’d say the 2022 Chiefs will be the toughest Saturday opponent he’s faced.

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From Zach Fogelman (@FogelmanZach): Are Kliff Kingsbury and Frank Reich legit candidates for the Rams’ OC position? Also, does L.A. have an interest in OBJ?

On Kliff, no, and shout-out to Peter Schrager for the nugget last week on the former Cardinals coach’s whereabouts. I have heard for a while he’d take some time off. And on Reich, I don’t think so. I think both LaFleur and Callahan will be in front of him.

As for OBJ, we’ll see. I know they haven’t closed that door yet.