Ranking Derek Carr’s Five Best Possible Fits: Jets and Colts Top the List

The Raiders released their former starting quarterback to avoid paying him more than $40 million in guaranteed money. Here are the teams who could try to sign him.

Let the Derek Carr sweepstakes begin.

With the Pro Bowl quarterback declining to waive his no-trade clause, the Raiders released Carr on Tuesday before his $32.9 million salary for the 2023 season would have become fully guaranteed. The Raiders would have also been on the hook for $7.5 million of Carr’s '24 salary if he was on the roster past the deadline. The move gives the Raiders over $48 million in cap space, according to overthecap.com.

Carr, 31, will be looking to recoup the lost money on his current contract and will likely have a long line of suitors with nearly half the teams in the NFL having uncertainty at the position heading into the 2023 offseason. But it’s not all about money. Carr likely wants his next team to have a talented roster with a winning culture and the right fit in coaching philosophy.

It was tough to narrow down, but here is a ranking of the best five landing spots for Carr:

The Raiders would have owed Carr more than $40 million in guarantees over the next two seasons if they would have kept him on their roster :: Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports

5) Houston Texans

Why Carr fits: The Texans have a new, well-respected head coach in DeMeco Ryans, the AP Assistant Coach of the Year for 2022. The former 49ers defensive coordinator is tasked with providing a winning environment to an organization that has failed to win more than four games in a season since ’19. The Texans have plenty of work, but a Carr arrival and more than $37 million in cap space, according to overthecap.com, might be enough to turn Houston into next year’s Jaguars, which quickly became a playoff team last season thanks to plentiful moves in free agency. The Texans also have two draft picks inside the top 12, including the No. 2 overall pick in April’s draft.

Why he doesn’t: Carr might be hesitant to consider the Texans as an option after how poorly it went for his older brother, David, the first draft pick of the then-expansion Texans in 2002. Many years have passed, but not much has changed for the dysfunctional franchise, which fired two first-year head coaches [David Culley, Lovie Smith] in back-to-back seasons before hiring Ryans. If Carr lands in Houston, he might later become a bridge quarterback with the Texans likely eying a quarterback in the first round. Veteran quarterbacks rarely benefit from having a promising rookie in the room.

4) Washington Commanders

Why Carr fits: He would have a dynamic receiving trio with Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson and a balanced attack with running backs Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson. Carr would also benefit from a stout defense that ranked in the top 10 in yards and points allowed in 2022. Carr won’t need to play hero ball on most Sundays behind Washington’s defense. Carr had his fair share of mistakes with the Raiders, but he was rarely paired with a productive defense. Washington has been in the mix for the NFC East title under Ron Rivera the past three seasons, winning it in ’20.

Why he doesn’t: Carr taking command of Washington’s offense makes plenty of sense, but Rivera might be hesitant to go the veteran quarterback route after poor results with Carson Wentz and Ryan Fitzpatrick the past two seasons. Rivera made headlines last week for referring to second-year quarterback Sam Howell as QB1 entering the offseason. As for a personnel problem, the Commanders received shaky play from their offensive line, which allowed 48 sacks last season, ranking 26th in the NFL.

3) Atlanta Falcons

Why Carr fits: Every team in the NFC South is searching for a quarterback, but only the Falcons can offer Carr cap-space flexibility for a lucrative contract and instant roster upgrades through free agency. Also, the Falcons have two cornerstone offensive playmakers in second-year receiver Drake London and standout tight end Kyle Pitts. If that’s not enticing enough, Falcons coach Arthur Smith is known for his creative offensive designs and has a track record of reviving quarterback careers—just ask the Titans’ Ryan Tannehill.

Why he doesn’t: The Falcons’ defense struggled in 2022 and lacked talent outside of defensive end Grady Jarrett and cornerback A.J. Terrell. Atlanta only had 21 sacks last season, second-worst in the NFL, and recorded 17 takeaways, tied for fifth-worst. Carr playing behind an inconsistent defense isn’t a winning recipe. It might also be concerning that Smith didn’t get much from Matt Ryan in ’21 and Marcus Mariota and rookie Desmond Ridder last season. Carr, however, would provide an upgrade at quarterback.

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2) Indianapolis Colts

Why Carr fits: If the Colts weren’t coming off a four-win season, this roster would rank among the best in the NFL. Running back Jonathan Taylor and wide receiver Michael Pittman had quiet 2022 seasons, but their talent didn’t just disappear. Carr could have a balanced attack with those two top playmakers and would be protected by Pro Bowl guard Quenton Nelson. New coach Shane Steichen will be tasked with putting this talented offensive roster back on track, and his coaching résumé will be appealing for quarterbacks in need of a fresh start. Steichen worked with Philip Rivers for a handful of years with the Chargers and was instrumental in the development of then-rookie Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts the past two years in Philadelphia.

Why he doesn’t: Outside of a one-and-done playoff appearance with Rivers, the Colts have had poor results going the veteran quarterback route since Andrew Luck retired in 2018. The Colts struggled with Carson Wentz in ’21 and took more steps back last season with Matt Ryan. Also, the Colts have the No. 4 pick in April’s draft, which they could use on a young quarterback. With Steichen’s history of developing quarterbacks, the Colts might be leaning toward a rookie in ’23.

1) New York Jets

Why Carr fits: To put it simply, if Carr played for the Jets in 2022, they likely wouldn’t have missed the postseason. Robert Saleh’s Jets endured a six-game losing streak to end the year after a 7–4 start, partly because of lackluster performances from Zach Wilson, the ’21 No. 2 pick. The Jets’ front office delivered a memorable ’22 draft class with wide receiver Garrett Wilson, running back Breece Hall and cornerback Sauce Gardner. The Jets are young, but they were one year ahead of schedule before the late-season collapse amid a wave of injuries. Carr might be the quarterback to end Gang Green’s 12-year postseason drought.

Why he doesn't: Carr might be high on the Jets’ QB wish list, but they likely have Aaron Rodgers as their top target. Rodgers is worth a few draft picks in a trade, but if the Jets want to keep building through the draft, Carr should be second in line because he’ll soon be a free agent. The Jets have plenty to offer and that will create competition among the veteran quarterbacks in need of a perfect fit. But if Carr isn’t willing to wait, he’ll have plenty of suitors, including the handful of teams not mentioned on this list.