SI Predicts: 2023 Dark-Horse Picks for NFL Offensive Player of the Year

The smart money is usually on quarterbacks and running backs, but our Matt Verderame and Gilberto Manzano have their eyes on a couple of playmaking wide receivers.

If you’re betting on who will be named the NFL MVP, smart money is annually placed on quarterbacks. Not the case for the Offensive Player of the Year.

The award has been handed out by the Associated Press since 1972, and since then, the positional breakdown for the winners is as follows:

• Quarterback: 20
• Running back: 26
• Wide receiver: 5

However, while receiver looks like a bad play from a historical angle, consider that Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson have won the past two Offensive Player of the Year awards.

With the game moving further away from running backs than ever before—not to mention fewer backs carrying the ball repeatedly—receivers seem like an increasingly good option. This is furthered by quarterbacks almost always winning MVP, providing top pass catchers with an award to actually strive for.

So who do we think could be a quietly strong pick to take the hardware home? See below.

Over the past two years, Lamb has posted Pro Bowl campaigns in each with a cumulative 2,461 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns :: Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY Sports

Matt Verderame: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys. Lamb is a really interesting pick for a litany of reasons.

For starters, he plays on America’s Team, meaning he’ll get plenty of publicity if Dallas is a contender and he’s playing great. And while the Cowboys have their questions, they’re easily a top-three team in a weak NFC, and Lamb is the best weapon on the offense.

Over the past two years, Lamb has posted Pro Bowl campaigns in each with a cumulative 2,461 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns. Last season, the former first-round pick from Oklahoma earned second-team All-Pro honors, notching 107 catches and 1,359 yards with nine scores, all career bests.

Now eligible for a contract extension, look for Lamb to continue ascending, potentially posting even larger numbers across the board should quarterback Dak Prescott be able to stay healthy.

While Lamb will give some targets away to the newly acquired Brandin Cooks, he’s clearly the top option on a team which figures to throw the ball plenty. If he can take advantage and the Cowboys win the fight against the Eagles for NFC East superiority, Lamb will have a big role and perhaps earn Offensive Player of the Year honors as a reward.

As a rookie with Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco and Mike White at quarterback, Wilson had 83 catches for 1,103 yards and four touchdowns en route to winning Offensive Rookie of the Year :: Mark Konezny/USA TODAY Sports

Gilberto Manzano: Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets. Matt made some great points about wide receivers being the best bet for this award. I’m taking the advice and predicting that Wilson will take the hardware home in 2023 to make it three consecutive years for the wideouts.

There are many reasons for why Wilson is a strong candidate, but the biggest one is the arrival of Aaron Rodgers, who has already compared Wilson to Davante Adams. But Rodgers added that Wilson is a few years away from reaching Adams’s play level. I’m going to speed up the process and say Wilson will have a special second season with an all-time great throwing him the ball.

As a rookie with Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco and Mike White at quarterback, Wilson recorded 83 catches for 1,103 yards and four touchdowns en route to winning Offensive Rookie of the Year. To compare, Ja’Marr Chase, the frontrunner for the award entering the season, had 81 catches for 1,455 yards and 13 touchdowns during his rookie season in 2021—and that was with Joe Burrow throwing him the ball.

Wilson is on a superstar trajectory with his vast skill set of reliable hands, smooth footwork and blazing speed (he clocked a 4.38 in the 40-yard dash at the combine). Wilson will soon enter the realm of Chase, Tyreek Hill and Deebo Samuel as the game’s most dangerous playmakers in open space.