Why Bill Belichick Isn’t on the Hot Seat With the Patriots

There may be concerns about New England’s direction, but that’s not enough to suggest that the longtime coach has anything but rebuilding to worry about.

We’re two camps in, and you all are clearly amped for football to get going. Let’s dive in …

From A L E X (@AlexLeeSays): Any truth to Belichick on the hot seat this season?

Alex, do I think the Krafts are worried about the direction of the franchise? Yeah, I do, and I think a lot of that is because they got used to being seen as a model franchise, and a marquee draw, for so long that the feeling of being off that stage has created a decent amount of discomfort in Foxborough. And obviously, Bill Belichick’s decision to move on from Tom Brady, someone I don’t believe Robert Kraft ever wanted to see go, makes that feeling only more complicated.

But as messy as things looked last year, and during the Cam Newton year, it’s not like this has been some sort of trainwreck. The Patriots have been a .500 team since Brady left, missing the playoffs in two out of three years as Belichick has rebuilt the roster. It’s not ideal, of course. And up against where the team was in the Brady era, it’s a significant step back.

Belichick is in his 24th season at the helm of the Patriots :: Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports

That said, as someone who’s been hard on Belichick at times over the past three years, he does have some collateral here. The bar for this year, to me, is in the trajectory of the program, maybe even more so than the win-loss record. Do the Patriots come out of the season with an ascending young core that got better over the course of the fall? Are they using some of the deep well of cap space they have in the coming years to sign their own players? Is the coaching staff humming after all the changes?

Most of all, is Belichick building something that can be sustained after he leaves?

These are the questions I think the Krafts will be asking. I’m not sure Robert would ever have the stomach to outright fire Belichick. So if we’re talking about the greatest coach of all time being on the hot seat, I don’t think that’s where we’re at. But if things look like they did a year ago, I could see the Krafts directing change around Belichick. And if that happens, I’m not sure what Belichick’s appetite for sticking around would be.

Which, of course, means this is a pretty important year in Foxborough, regardless of how you might characterize Belichick’s situation.

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From Don Ridenour & CEO of Klutch Sports Rich Paul (@DonRidenour): Which QB under new coaching are you most excited to see?

Don, I’ll go with the layup, and take Russell Wilson in Denver. After how his former and current teams came out of the March 2022 blockbuster trade, the nine-time Pro Bowler is facing more questions than he has at any point in his career. How much of Seattle’s success over his decade there was his, and how much was a generational defense’s? Were those defensive players right about him all along? Is he capable of carrying a team?

The fact is, last year, Wilson got everything he wanted. He got an offense that would showcase him as a passer. He ran less. He had input into the scheme, his own personal infrastructure in the building, and a lot of other things Brady got with the Buccaneers and Aaron Rodgers is getting with the Jets. And it all blew up in Wilson’s face.

Another thing happened amidst all that: The Broncos were sold, and, in time, the new owners imploded what was built for Wilson and handed a king’s ransom—and the keys of the operation—to Sean Payton, who immediately made it clear who’d be in charge going forward. Then, Denver gave Jarrett Stidham a pretty nice contract for a backup. All of which puts Wilson in a much different spot than he was last year.

What I do know is Payton’s going to do whatever he has to in order to get the most out of Wilson. That may mean incorporating him back into the run game as the Seahawks did and challenging him in ways he hasn’t been challenged in a while. Enabling all this is Payton’s sparkling track record in developing the quarterback position.

Which means we’re gonna see what Wilson’s got left, and I think it’ll be fascinating to watch that play out.

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From Cali (@CaliJets): What team does Dalvin Cook end up with? Feel like this has to get resolved in the next week.

Cook has been selected to the Pro Bowl each year in his last four seasons with the Vikings :: Daniel Bartel/USA TODAY Sports

Cali, I guessed the Jets before, so I’ll guess the Jets again. I just think New York’s in an interesting spot at the position: It has a young star, in Breece Hall, who might need time to get his legs back from last year’s ACL tear, and could probably use an extra couple of weeks to get there. They also are in a spot, with Rodgers as their quarterback, where every week counts, it being an all-in sort of year or two due to his presence.

So it’s easy to say you’re going to be judicious in bringing Hall back. It’s harder to stick to that if you don’t have options. Michael Carter, to be clear, is a nice option, but he’s a little more of a passing-down back, and there’s no real depth behind him. So Cook would give the offense an experienced hand to lean on, both to allow for Hall to heal, and also to balance things out as Rodgers gets his feet wet.

What’s really interesting here, too, is I would’ve told you a week ago that all the AFC East teams—other than the Bills—would be involved here. Since then, Nyheim Hines got hurt, and now there’s an opening for a back with pass-game value in Buffalo. Also, Cook’s brother happens to be there, which can’t hurt.

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From Reply Ry (@ref513): Did something happen on Hard Knocks recently that everyone suddenly didn’t want to do it? Feel like they usually managed to find at least some volunteers.

Ry, I think it’s a couple of things.

First, there is so much strain on all these players with the media demands day-to-day, and so many “peeks behind the curtain”—coming from in-house media, local independent media, national media and the league itself—that a lot of teams are simply at a breaking point when it comes to asking more of their players and coaches. That, to me, is where the Jets were in the spring, after the Aaron Rodgers trade upped the ante, and they kept saying no.

Second, the benefits it used to bring to players aren’t nearly as pronounced anymore. Fewer people watch the show. There are plenty of ways for players to get their names out there and show their personalities. So there’s less benefit to having a star turn like the guitar-playing Cowboys rookie in 2003 (Richmond Flowers III) or “Seven Eleven” with the Dolphins in ’12 (Chris Hogan). Which naturally gives teams less motivation to do it.

Then, there’s the competitive issue. Some coaches believe that, in a league where most games are won on the margins, there’s simply no compelling reason to give away in the summer what could be an edge in the fall or winter. Whether Hard Knocks does compromise teams that appear on it is debatable. But the fact that some believe it does is both understandable and illustrative in explaining why so many say no.

And unfortunately for fans of the show, I don’t think what we saw this year is suddenly going to reverse itself going forward. So I doubt this is the last time HBO and NFL Films—which do a dynamite job with what they’re given—have to take a hostage rather than join up with a volunteer.

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From Adam Zahn (@ajz510): You think all is mended is NYG camp?

Adam, to a degree, I think so.

Look, Saquon Barkley easily could’ve pushed this until Labor Day weekend. He could’ve stayed in shape on his own. He could have rested up, saved some miles on his legs and made a point of how angry he was. All that would’ve cost him nothing—the first shot for him to lose money would’ve come with his Week 1 game check.

He didn’t do that. He worked with the Giants to get a deal done, and, after all the hand-wringing of the last week, he’ll be in on time.

Now, that doesn’t mean the scars of the next six months won’t show themselves down the line. They very well could, particularly in February and March. But I think it’s a good indication that Barkley plans to be the player, worker and teammate he always has been, which, by the way, is also the best approach to maximize his value on the market for next year—whether that happens in New York or elsewhere.

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From Ball Placement (@ball_placement): How improved will the Lions’ defense be with the DB additions, but now sans CGJ?

Ball, first of all, you should check out my takeaways from Lions camp for the rundown. Second, I think they should be a lot better. Detroit showed significant improvement on that side of the ball down the stretch last year, and there’s a real chance to build on that, based on three things I heard while I was there Tuesday.

1. The secondary has an over-the-top amount of flexibility in its ranks, with C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Kerby Joseph, Cameron Sutton and rookie Brian Branch all being pieces that the coaches can move every which way. It gives Aaron Glenn a ton of options to be creative, aggressive and deceptive with his coverage looks.
2. Third-year man Derrick Barnes has turned heads at linebacker. The team knew he had a ways to go when it drafted him two years ago, but the athletic ceiling was always high, and that’s showing itself now. Barnes could be a difference-maker.
3. I saw what looked like a bigger Aidan Hutchinson out there. I was later told that, yes, he looks that way, but he’s at the same weight he was as a rookie, which is a testament to how he’s continued to work on his fitness. He was really good at the end of the year last season. He should be even better this time around, and if he’s commanding double teams, that’ll change the dynamic for everyone else.

Hutchinson finished 2022 with runner-up finish for Defensive Rookie of the Year honors :: Junfu Han/USA TODAY Network

So at the risk of being a prisoner of the moment, or really just the last thing I saw, there’s plenty of reason for optimism in Detroit, even with what was generally regarded as its weaker unit a year ago.

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From Commando_Bo (@LetsGoCommandos): Can Eric Bieniemy succeed in Washington?

Sure, Commando.

Those in the building have certainly taken notice of how hard Bieniemy is pushing everyone, and there absolutely was an adjustment period for the coaches he inherited. But over time, those guys got to see the method behind the urgency, the energy and the sense of accountability he was trying to bring to both his players and his peers. So that’s really the first thing: There’s a good sense of direction on that side of the ball going into camp.

And that’s been bolstered by all of the above coming together to bring great detail to everything the players are doing on the field—from those getting the ball, to the skill players playing away from the ball, to the line. It’s made clear the vision that Bieniemy has for bringing his own version of Andy Reid’s offense, with a lot of movement, a lot of different ways to get playmakers the ball in space and an overall illusion of complexity that makes simple-to-run plays look complicated to defenders.

Will it work? The line still has its issues to work through in camp, and, while Sam Howell has had a really nice spring, he’s got only one start under his belt and has a lot to prove. But there are plenty of good signs that Bieniemy has made a difference.

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From Aaron Martin (@AaronMartinSFU): What do Gibbs/Campbell have to do in Year 1 to make you feel their first-round status was justified? Would 80% of Kamara (last OROY RB) and Leonard (last DROY LB)’s seasons be enough? Do they have to hit Pro Bowl/All-Pro? If they’re key pieces in a playoff team, is that enough?

Aaron, we got lots of Lions questions this week—you all must’ve known I’d be in town for camp. Good to hear the fan base is wide awake now (and I saw it with some of my family members when I was visiting, too).

On Jahmyr Gibbs, I think this is really about adding another explosive element to the offense, and it almost doesn’t matter how it comes. Though there are real parallels in his game to Alvin Kamara’s, and Dan Campbell happened to be with the Saints for Kamara’s rookie year in New Orleans. That year, Kamara exploded for 728 yards rushing, averaging a gaudy 6.1 yards per carry, and caught 81 balls for 826 yards while scoring 13 total touchdowns.

That's a high bar for any rookie, and I don’t think Gibbs will get there. But, say, the same rushing number with 60 or so catches is attainable. And while Gibbs doesn’t have Sean Payton to draw it up for him, Ben Johnson’s gonna be plenty creative in getting him the ball.

As for Jack Campbell, linebacker’s a position that does take some adjustment. That being said, the Lions saw a player who was in full control as the traffic controller for Iowa’s defense, and is a bit of a unicorn with his size, length and athleticism for the position.

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From Wayne Lynch (@TVMavenSeattle): Will Cousins’s story on the QB doc make him more loveable to fans and bring more respect from teammates and media?

Wayne, you can be the judge of that, but I think Kirk Cousins has always been a pretty likable guy. And while the relationship with Stefon Diggs might’ve gotten sideways a few years ago, I don’t think he really had a ton of issues with teammates before that or since then.

So yeah, if the show further illuminates that, then great.

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From Big Joe (@BIGJOEONTHEGO): If you could pick one player who could go both ways like back in high school and do it in the NFL, who is it?

Big Joe! I’ll go a little off the board here and give you Jaycee Horn.

Horn had three interceptions in 2022 :: Bob Donnan/USA TODAY Sports

The Panthers’ corner has the bloodlines, of course, being the son of former Saints star Joe Horn, and I don’t think he falls into the category of, He plays corner because he can’t catch. In the case of both Horn, and the Broncos’ Patrick Surtain II, having NFL dads pushed them toward the position where the supply-and-demand curve was optimal—and that’s at corner, not receiver. Which seems to have been a pretty good decision.

The other position grouping I would look at would be the freakish defensive ends, who probably could move over to tight end. And the one that sort of stands out to me, because of his size, length and feet, would be Browns defensive end Myles Garrett. I don’t know how his ball skills are, but he’d probably be a pain in the ass to follow down the seam.

And maybe the other thing I’d look at is linebackers able to play fullback. The Ravens’ Roquan Smith is certainly built to do it. On the flip side, I think Kyle Juszczyk might be able to pull it off, too, with the 49ers.

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From Bandit (@ktownbandit): Sandpipers still pissing you off?

Believe it or not, Bandit, the piping plover issue has actually gotten really contentious in our town. Not sure I’m at liberty to talk about it here.

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From David McDonald (@daveomcd): What’s your go-to menu item at Bertucci’s?

Loved Bertucci’s as a kid and have gotten reacquainted with them thanks to food drops at 98.5 the Sports Hub in Boston. The wings are sneakily phenomenal. And the pizza is reliably good, though not great, David.

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From Minkahs Goat (@MinkahsGoat): Anything going on with the Steelers?

You tell me, Minkahs.