AFC East 2023 Season Preview: The Bills Are Still the Team to Beat

The three-time defending division champs remain the favorite, even as the Jets and Dolphins bring rosters overflowing with talent to the mix.

For 20 years, the AFC East consisted of the Patriots and three NFL versions of a laugh track.

Fast forward to 2022, and the roles are reversed. The Jets have Aaron Rodgers under center, the Bills are three-time defending AFC East champions and the Dolphins are loaded with talent and boasting a new defensive coordinator in Vic Fangio.

While Buffalo remains the favorite, New York and Miami are fascinating. The Jets made the offseason’s biggest splash by adding Rodgers to a roster that already has last year’s Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year in receiver Garrett Wilson and corner Sauce Gardner, respectively. Factor in that New York was playing meaningful football into the season’s final week despite a quarterback triumvirate of Zach Wilson, Mike White and Joe Flacco, and it’s easy to see how the Jets could be a factor.

In Miami, the Dolphins are attempting to make consecutive playoff appearances for the first time since the 2000-01 seasons. The big question is the long-term health of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who officially sustained two concussions last year and likely a third, causing him to miss part or all of seven games, including Miami’s narrow wild-card loss to the Bills.

This winter, the Dolphins attempted to bolster a defense ranked 18th in 2022 by trading for Pro Bowl corner Jalen Ramsey and adding Fangio as coordinator. If Miami’s new-look unit can be a few notches better, it has a chance to dazzle with a high-speed offense capable of scoring 30 points against anybody when healthy.

Still, the Bills remain the team to beat. Buffalo has been a consistent winner, going to the playoffs in four consecutive years while advancing to the AFC title game in 2020. However, the Bills lost some pieces this offseason, including Pro Bowl linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, who signed with the Bears in free agency, and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier.

For Buffalo to beat out Miami and New York, it’s going to take another great year from quarterback Josh Allen and receiver Stefon Diggs, along with a healthier season from a defense that in 2022 was often without safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer, and edge rusher Von Miller.

Lastly, there’s the Patriots. New England has struggled since quarterback Tom Brady left after the 2019 season, but it has never been irrelevant come December. For that streak to continue, the Patriots need far better play out of third-year quarterback Mac Jones, who last season threw for only 2,997 yards with 14 touchdowns against 11 interceptions.

The hope for New England is the addition of former Patriots’ assistant Bill O’Brien as offensive coordinator. While the temptation is to believe coach Bill Belichick’s roster is outclassed in perhaps the NFL’s best division, history says to give New England its respect.

Buffalo Bills

Best-case: Allen has an All-Pro campaign, Gabe Davis emerges as a 1,000-yard receiver and Miller plays a majority of the season before becoming the postseason force he was for the Broncos and Rams. If those three things happen, Buffalo has an excellent shot at capturing its first Super Bowl title.

Davis has posted at least six touchdowns in each of his three seasons iwth Buffalo :: Jamie Germano/USA TODAY Network

Worst-case: The coaching staff can’t lead Buffalo to glory with Sean McDermott taking on an expanded role in the absence of Frazier in his previous coordinator role. Offensively, the unit struggles to find a consistent identity under second-year coordinator Ken Dorsey, leaving Allen to be a one-man engine once again.

Miami Dolphins

Tagovailoa played in 13 games lat season :: Thomas Shea/USA TODAY Sports

Best-case: Tagovailoa plays a full season, and the offensive line becomes a solid unit led by a healthy campaign from left tackle Terron Armstead. Defensively, the addition of Fangio revitalizes a group which struggled last year, helping Miami win its first division title since 2008. The talent is there for the Dolphins to make a real run at Super Bowl contention.

Worst-case: Tagovailoa continues to deal with physical issues, and All-Pro receiver Tyreek Hill begins to slow down in his age-29 season. Meanwhile, edge rusher Bradley Chubb doesn’t live up to his $110 million extension while the combination of corners Xavien Howard and Ramsey are more name than production.

New England Patriots

Best-case: Jones finds consistency with O’Brien replacing Matt Patricia. The Patriots get back to basics, running the ball with Rhamondre Stevenson while Jones largely attempts high percentage throws. This is enough to win, because New England has a top-five defense led by edge rusher Matthew Judon and Josh Uche.

Worst-case: Jones isn’t the quarterback of the future, and New England still lacks weaponry on the outside even after adding JuJu Smith-Schuster in free agency. Belichick continues to move toward Don Shula’s all-time regular-season wins record, but the murmurs in Foxborough turn to loud grumbles about an exit strategy.

Jones should be in sync with the new coordinator given the two’s shared experience at Alabama :: Brian Fluharty/USA TODAY Sports

New York Jets

Best-case: Rodgers comes out firing with something to prove. After putting up a 1,000-yard season with an incredibly forgettable trio of quarterbacks, Wilson becomes an All-Pro receiver after amassing more than 1,100 yards with almost no help. New York’s revamped offense, coupled with a terrific defense anchored by Gardner, leads the Jets to a deep playoff run.

In Rodgers’s Jets debut Saturday, he went 5-for-8, throwing a TD pass to Wilson :: Vincent Carchietta/USA TODAY Sports

Worst-case: Rodgers looks an awful lot like the quarterback who didn’t throw for 300 yards in a game once last season. At 39 years old, he’s clearly declining and the Jets struggle to protect him with question marks at left and right tackle. The defense is good but not great, as the front seven struggles to get a consistent edge rush.