AFC South 2023 Season Preview: The Jaguars Are Ready to Complete Their Resurgence

Jacksonville has undergone a transformation with Trevor Lawrence at the helm, and this year should look no different as it sails to the postseason once again.

The AFC South is the epitome of why the NFL is so popular.

For two consecutive years, the Jaguars were picking first in the draft. One season later, they’re division champs and hosting a playoff game, rallying from a 27–0 deficit against the Chargers to win. Now, Jacksonville appears ready to roll toward another AFC South crown while trying to take its place among the best teams in the sport.

Looking at the division, the Jaguars are the heavy favorites. They’re the only team with a star quarterback (Trevor Lawrence) and a coach (Doug Pederson) who has won a Super Bowl, while the Texans and Colts are both working with first-year duos at those spots. Jacksonville also has a litany of playmakers, including receivers Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk, tight end Evan Engram and running back Travis Etienne. The offense should be enough on its own to get Jacksonville back into the postseason.

The Jaguars went on a five-game winning streak to make the postseason in 2022 :: Bob Self/Florida Times-Union/USA TODAY Network

The big question in the AFC South is which team emerges as second-best?

The Titans have long been competitive under coach Mike Vrabel, making the playoffs for three consecutive years before cratering in the second half of 2022, losing seven straight to miss out. Tennessee has defensive talent in the front seven, but the secondary is a question and the offense is essentially Derrick Henry or bust. In today’s pass-happy NFL, that’s a tough way to consistently win, especially without any notable, proven receivers.

In Houston, it’s another new day. The Texans are hoping DeMeco Ryans can stop the carousel of coaches, with the franchise now on its fourth coach in as many years. Ryans comes over from the 49ers, where he ran one of the NFL’s best units. He won’t find near the same talent in Houston, but he does have some cornerstones in rookie edge rusher Will Anderson Jr., corner Jalen Pitre and corner Derek Stingley Jr.

Of course, the Texans will only go as far as quarterback C.J. Stroud will take them. The No. 2 pick in April’s draft, Stroud was a stud with the Buckeyes, throwing for 85 touchdowns against 12 interceptions over his two years as a starter in Columbus. If Stroud immediately validates his draft stock, Houston becomes an intriguing team on the rise.

The story is much the same in Indianapolis.

The Colts are betting big on No. 4 pick Anthony Richardson, a quarterback from Florida who didn’t throw 900 passes between college and high school. Indianapolis can ease him into the starting lineup with backup Gardner Minshew on the roster, who spent last year with new coach Shane Steichen. The pairing were together in 2022 with the Eagles, where Steichen was the offensive coordinator for two years. Jonathan Taylor will remain with the team, but is on the PUP list as of now as part of what has become an alienating situation for Indianapolis’s star running back.

Bottom line? Jacksonville is primed for a run at contention, while the Colts, Texans and Titans all try to be relevant post-Thanksgiving.

Houston Texans

Best-case: The combination of Ryans and Stroud proves to make sweet music. Houston sees an immediate uptick with a young offense led by Stroud, rookie receiver Tank Dell and second-year running back Dameon Pierce. The defense relies on a strong secondary featuring Stingley Jr. and Pitre to create turnovers, and makes Houston a playoff contender for the first time since Watson’s departure.

Stroud was officially announced as the Week 1 starter on Sunday :: Eric Canha/USA TODAY Sports

Worst-case: Stroud isn’t ready for the rigors of being an NFL starting quarterback, and his line falters. The Texans rely solely on Pierce to keep the chains moving, and the result is a predictable scheme. The defense gets a valiant effort from Anderson, but the rest of the front seven is a liability.

Indianapolis Colts

Best-case: Richardson proves to be the next star quarterback in the AFC, showcasing a dazzling blend of arm and leg talent. The offense has diversity with Jonathan Taylor eventually playing and returning to his 2021 form, while the defense gets a healthy year out of star linebacker Shaq Leonard. It wouldn’t hurt if ’21 first-round edge rusher Kwity Paye turns potential into more production as well.

Worst-case: Richardson isn’t ready to play much his rookie year, and Minshew is nothing more than a middling stopgap. Indianapolis’s offensive line remains one of the league’s worst, and the Colts have to hope their defense can win games without much help. The result is contending for the No. 1 pick.

Richardson has limited experience but a raw athletic ability that made him a polarizing draft propsect :: Bill Streicher/USA TODAY Sports

Jacksonville Jaguars

Best-case: The Jaguars build off last year’s success and threaten for the top seed in the AFC. Driven by an easy schedule and the continued progression of Lawrence, Jacksonville proves it belongs among the NFL’s elite. Ridley makes a bid for Comeback Player of the Year, becoming a Pro Bowl talent on the perimeter.

Lawrence and Ridley have reportedly been building a strong chemistry in preseason :: Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA TODAY Sports

Worst-case: Lawrence stagnates and the Jaguars struggle to find consistency up front with the loss of right tackle Jawaan Taylor and the pending suspension of left tackle Cam Robinson. Defensively, the unit is too dependent on edge rusher Josh Allen to get pressure, while the secondary doesn’t have an elite playmaker to stop the AFC’s top quarterbacks.

Tennessee Titans

Best-case: Henry has another All-Pro season in his aging legs, while the acquisitions of tackle Andre Dillard and guard Peter Skoronski give quarterback Ryan Tannehill time to throw. Vrabel keeps his physical brand of football going with a nasty front, including defensive tackles Jeffery Simmons and Denico Autry, giving opponents fits.

Henry is in his age-29 year but has shown minimal signs of regression :: Andrew Nelles/Tennessean.com/USA TODAY Network

Worst-case: The Titans simply can’t score. Henry begins to regress behind a bad offensive line, and Tannehill spends most of the season looking at the sky or receivers covered downfield. Tennessee regrets not investing in its receivers, putting the defense in bad positions on a weekly basis.